The cognitive impact of thinking traps in Rational Analysis 9
Halo effect : refers to our subjective impression, which is a general or partial generalization. In layman's terms, it means that when we see the advantages of something, we You will feel that this matter is good everywhere.
Part 1 Why our judgment is easily affected by the halo effect:
Simply put, a person performs well in some aspects, but in the eyes of others, it is a halo. Under the influence of this halo, he became excellent in other aspects. People generally believe that if a person performs well, then he will become good, and if he performs poorly, then he will become terrible. This is the effect of the halo. What is the halo effect. Simply put, it is a part of something. People who perform well will be considered to be excellent in other aspects. Whether it is for people or companies, the halo effect often affects our judgment. The halo effect can be said to be everything. The source of hallucinations.
The second part is besides the halo effect, what other illusions can blind our eyes and reduce our thinking ability?
1: The Illusion of Causality
We are often confused by the causal relationship group and cannot distinguish between cause and effect. There are two reasons for this:
The first reason: it looks like a cause but is actually a result.
The second reason is that these two things look like a causal relationship, but in fact they are just simple connections, not causal relationships. What is the cause, what is the effect, and if not, how is the connection established? Developing this kind of critical thinking can help us escape the illusion of cause and effect.
2: The illusion of everlasting prosperity: Simply put, according to the laws of the market, enterprises, like humans, have their own life cycles. Innovation is the driving force for enterprise development, and the result of innovation by new enterprises is that old enterprises are constantly eliminated. Companies, like people, are mortal. This is common sense. Behind the halo effect is an unrealistic assumption that the author calls the organizational physics illusion.
3: The illusion of organizational physics: It is well known that physics pursues certainty and always uses the most precise mathematical formulas to express the basic laws of the universe. It is precisely based on this characteristic that many business scholars have moved physics theories into the business field. In business, this is a hypothesis of organizational physics. This hypothesis believes that all success is regular. As long as you follow certain steps and methods, there will be results. However, in fact, physical events and business events are completely incomparable. of. For example, many business theories in classic business books are designed to satisfy people's pursuit of certainty. People hope that these business writers can find the rules of success. As long as they do it in their own way, they can succeed. This is It's like a business equation with success written on it. But are predictions in the business world really the same as physics? The author thinks this is impossible. Why? Because this organizational physics vacation cannot confirm the complexity of the business world. There are many factors that affect corporate performance in the market. If we always pursue business certainty, we are likely to be confused by various theoretical groups. Confused, thereby losing the ability to adapt. The business world is characterized by rapid changes. Only by accepting this premise can we understand the business world well.
Part 3: How to learn successful experiences in the complex business world
1: On the one hand, we must be critical of the business theories popular in the market.
How to train your own judgment, the book provides a method, which is to constantly ask yourself questions. When we see a new point of view, we should not rush to deny it, nor should we rush to accept it. Instead, we should ask ourselves where this point of view comes from, what is the author's intention, whether the evidence is sufficient, whether the argument is reasonable, and whether Subject to the halo effect mentioned earlier and so on.If we often ask ourselves this, we will slowly develop the habit of critical thinking. Only in this way can we get useful information. On the other hand, we can accept the uncertainty of the business world. The business world is full of uncertainties. This and The science is completely different, and in studying the successes of other companies, we often overlook the serendipitous factors that contributed to their success. The business world is full of uncertainties. Good decisions may not necessarily bring good results, and bad results may not always be wrong decisions. We must understand that any good strategy comes with risks, and that business opportunities, luck, and good strategy are as important as execution.
2: So how do we embrace uncertainty? The author introduces an idea that uses probabilistic thinking to think about problems.
What is probabilistic thinking? It means respecting the complexity and ambiguity of things. When making decisions, fully consider the benefits and risks, take all factors into consideration, and then calculate the probability of success of each decision. This way of thinking does not guarantee that every decision will be successful. Decisions are correct, but this also allows you to make the right decisions
