According to Taiwan media reports, "China Guangxi" and "Gallop Credit Investigation Polls" released a new wave of Taipei mayor poll results today (24th). The support level of Kuomintang candidate Jiang Wan'an led by 22.13% of the Democratic Progressive Party Chen Shizhong and 17.42% of Huang Shanshan, an independent member of the Party; in response to this result, Zhao Shaokang, chairman of "China Guangxi", analyzed that the basic structure of the green camp is still very concentrated. Jiang Wan'an is currently meaningful but cannot be taken lightly. The turnout rate is 65% calculated that 22% support is equal to 33%. This is the basic structure of the Green Army. Therefore, no matter how high the hatred value Chen Shizhong is, he believes that Jiang Wan'an must be 10% ahead to be safe, but he does not lead by 10%.
Picture source Taiwan media
If you look at the gender support level carefully, Jiang Wanan's male support level was 28.85%, and the higher was 30.39%, Chen Shizhong's male support level was 23.18%, and 21.22% for women; Huang Shanshan's male support level was 18.09% for women and 16.83% for women; in age group analysis, among the respondents aged 20 to 39, Jiang Wanan's male support level was 24.15%, Chen Shizhong's male support level was 19.68%, and Huang Shanshan's female support level was 24.75%.
The support rate between the ages of 40 and 59 is 33.75%, Chen Shizhong is 19.05%, and Huang Shanshan is 21.07%; Jiang Wanan, who is over 60, is 29.82%, Chen Shizhong is 27.72%, and Huang Shanshan is only 6.99%.
Zhao Shaokang said that the poll showed that no abandonment of insurance was made. Among Chen Shizhong's supporters, the DPP already supported Chen Shizhong and only 1.2% gave Huang Shanshan, so no one of the DPP supported Huang Shanshan, so how could it abandon the insurance? The Kuomintang still supports Huang Shanshan 6%, and even the People's Party supports Huang Shanshan only 60%. The voters who do not look at the party are scattered among the three main candidates, so first, abandon Huang and protect Jiang still have a chance, and Chen and Huang cannot abandon the protection.
Zhao Shaokang said that second, the basic green camp is still very cohesive. Jiang Wanan is currently leading meaningfully but cannot be taken lightly. The turnout rate is 65% 22% of the support is equal to 33%. This is the basic green army. Therefore, no matter how high the hatred value Chen Shizhong is, he believes that Jiang Wanan must lead by 10% to be safe, but he does not lead by 10%.
Hao Longbin said that the DPP performed poorly, so it would not appear in the polls, but votes would be cast during voting. Huang Shanshan's polls dropped significantly because Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe frequently issued packages in public security, water gate, etc. Ke Wenzhe called for SOP standard operating procedures, but he went to other places to assist in the floods, so citizens' dissatisfaction with Ke Wenzhe was transferred to Huang Shanshan; after the gap between Jiang Wan'an and Huang Shanshan widened to 12%, the Blues will continue to flow back to Jiang Wan'an, and the Celtics will also gather on Chen Shizhong. Huang Shanshan has few fans and is obviously behind. The votes will definitely be torn apart.
Hao Longbin analyzed that the external environment is so poor, but Chen Shizhong's youth votes increased by 10%. This is from Huang Shanshan. Jiang Wanan mainly increased the return of supporters of the Blue Army over 40 years old, but the young votes remained at 24%, and there are still 25% of the youth votes undecided. This is the direction Jiang Wanan needs to work hard.
In addition to the "China Guangxi" and "Gallop" polls, today a big data company QuickseeK also announced the Taipei mayor election poll. The latest poll results of the Taipei mayor, among which the support level of three was Huang Shanshan, who was unparty, accounting for 33.7%, and the Kuomintang Jiang Wanan ranked second with 33.2%, with the gap between the two sides only 0.5%. In addition, Chen Shizhong of the DPP followed closely with a 27.3% support.
