Yesterday, A shares fell sharply during the day, but last night, US stock rose sharply, Dow Jones Industrial Index rose more than 800 points.
. In terms of exchange rate , dollar index rose slightly. After the RMB rose sharply by 1,200 points on Wednesday, it fell for two consecutive days on Thursday and Friday, with a cumulative decline of more than 800 points.
China and the United States have successively announced the third quarter GDP. We found that after converting US dollars, the gap between China's GDP and the United States has increased by US$2.0 million. What is the truth behind
?
01, stock market
Yesterday, A-shares experienced an accelerated decline in the afternoon period, and Shanghai Composite Index finally closed barely holding 2900 points, which is the third time since this year.
However, the last two trading days that fell below 3000 points were only 3 to 5 days. It is estimated that this time, the last time it fell below 3000 points should not be too long. We will analyze the reason later. The decline in the
index was even greater, with ChiNext , down 3.7%. The declines of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index , which reflect the small and medium-sized market style, also exceeded 3%. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index has just returned to 1,000 points, and has now fallen to 993 points again.
But last night, the US stock market rose sharply. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 830 points overnight, and has risen for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative rebound of more than 4,000 points. has increased by more than 10%.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 also rebounded after two consecutive declines in the daily line, with gains last night reaching 2.9% and 2.5% respectively.
Recently, the performance of US stocks is better than that of A-shares.
02, exchange rate
In terms of exchange rate, the US dollar index rebounded after falling to 109.5, and returned to 111.07 at its highest yesterday. The rebound of the
USD index is related to the news that the Federal Reserve will hold a interest rate meeting next week, and it is likely that the news of a significant hike of will be announced.
Therefore, most non-US currencies have experienced a decline, and among the main currencies, the only pound has risen. Currently, the pound has returned to the 1.1613 position against the US dollar.
In the past 5 weeks, the pound exchange rate has been rising for 4 weeks.
had previously fallen sharply due to the announcement of the tax cut plan. Later, due to the cancellation of the tax cut plan, the pound is repairing the pitfall caused by the previous sharp drop.
, while the RMB offshore exchange rate has declined for two consecutive days.
On Wednesday, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rebounded strongly to nearly 1,300 points, but on Thursday, the RMB fell by 600 points, and yesterday it fell by nearly 200 points. In just two days, the RMB fell by more than 800 points again.
03, economic
In the financial market, we see that the US stocks and exchange rates perform well, but at the economic level, the US GDP data is showing signs of slowing down.
We compared the data released by China and the United States in the third quarter with the data in the middle of the year and found that after converting US dollars, the gap in GDP between China and the United States increased by US$2.0 trillion in the third quarter compared with the second quarter.
But this is not because the US GDP is growing faster, or China's GDP is falling, but simply because of the exchange rate.
The reality is that China's economy is improving steadily, while the US economy is increasingly showing signs of recession.
In the second quarter of this year, China's GDP growth rate fell to a low point due to severe impact from the epidemic, but there was a significant rebound in the third quarter.
Compared with this, we found that the year-on-year growth rate of the United States' GDP fell for three consecutive quarters, and it exceeded 4% in the first quarter, slightly exceeded 2% in the second quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate of in the third quarter, has fallen below 2%.
Now more and more economists and entrepreneurs believe that the US economy will inevitably fall into recession, but everyone has not reached a consensus on the specific time point, but the expected latest time will not exceed the end of 2023.
The GDP gap between China and the United States may decrease significantly in the second half of next year. The reason is that the US dollar index is about to peak and fall. At the same time, China's economic growth is accelerating, and the United States may soon fall into negative growth.
The good performance in the economy will inevitably be reflected in the performance of the capital market. A-shares should be on the road of a bull market.
