1. International events to pay attention to next week: On Monday, euro zone will release the inflation rate data for October, the previous value increased by 9.9% year-on-year. The market is expected to increase by 9.6% year-on-year in October, and inflation will continue to remain at a high level;
Tuesday, RBA announced its interest rate resolution. If nothing unexpected happens, it will continue to announce the rate hike of ;
On Wednesday, Germany announced the October seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, with the previous value increasing by 5.5% year-on-year, and the market expects to increase by 5.6% year-on-year in October;
On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve announced the November interest rate resolution, which is also the highlight of this week. The market expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 75 basis point interest rate hike, raising the 3.25% federal interest rate to 4%, which is also an important factor affecting stock market fluctuations this week.
Currently, economic data scientists generally expect the Fed to maintain its firm hawkish stance at next week's interest rate meeting to lay the foundation for reaching 5% interest rates by March 2023. Markets worry that the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may lead to a recession in the US and global economy.
From the current data of the United States, the US PCE price index increased by 6.2% year-on-year in September, which was lower than the market expectations of 6.3%, but it was still at a high level, indicating that the inflation rate in October will not ease, and the United States has more reason to insist on hike interest rates to the end.
2. This week, Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 6.04%, and the two markets traded 4431.7 billion. In terms of industry sectors, 6 rose this week and 80 fell. In terms of concept sectors, 26 rose this week and 364 fell. The concepts such as data security, network security, information technology, remote office, and domestic software ranked first, while concepts such as pork, chicken, solid-state battery , silicone , and pet economy ranked first.
all had obvious declines. There was a panic and sharp decline in during the session this Monday and Friday, indicating that the bears were eager to sell. The trading volume of in the two markets was significantly enlarged compared with last week, indicating that during the decline, below absorbed funds from , but the short-term selling pressure was too strong, and it was unable to support it at the important integer mark of 3,000 points.
On Friday, the US stock market rose sharply. Judging from the impact, tomorrow Monday, A shares will likely open higher. If it can open higher, the Shanghai Composite Index's 5-minute level MACD indicator will enter the red column range from the green column range. Next, it depends on the intraday trend of A-shares. Whether it can push the 15-minute and 30-minute level MACD indicators from the green column range to the red column range. If possible, you might as well look at the top of the top. If not, the volatile trend will continue.
weekly line level and monthly line level MACD indicators are still in the green column range. If there is no good news in the short term and there is no reversal signal on the technical side, the medium and long term can only use time to transform space.
From the market, although the short-term sharp drop in A-shares at this position is scary, the valuation of A-shares is still in the bottom range, and there is actually nothing to be afraid of. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but the actual downward space is being compressed. When the short-term market emotional selling is released, it will be a hero again. The view of
3 and Yingying is expected to have a phased bottom below 2900 points.
Xu Xiang's wife Ying Ying expressed her opinion that the rapid depreciation of the RMB in the past few weeks has reached a temporary high, and the market will slowly recover from rationality. The outflow of funds this week has significantly led to a sharp drop in the stock price of the Big White Horse. However, when the fundamentals of the listed company have not changed, this is an irrational selling behavior. Since it is an irrational panic, the market's self-reflection and self-repair will also begin. It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will have a phased bottom below 2900 points.
4. The third-quarter financial report has been disclosed, and the comprehensive situation is good
Almost all of the listed companies' third-quarter financial reports have been disclosed. The number of listed companies with net profit growth of more than or equal to 0% year-on-year is 2,365, and there are 2,601 listed companies with negative net profit growth.
Although there are more listed companies with negative growth, based on this year's situation, it still has such performance, which is quite good. Moreover, only 27 listed companies with negative net profit growth in the top 100 total market value. From this point of view, the overall performance is pretty good. In addition, the third-quarter financial report expectation will come to an end, and will enter a performance vacuum period next.
5. As for whether A-shares will fall sharply next week and what will happen tomorrow, from an objective perspective, A-shares will still be mainly fluctuating in the short term due to the Fed's announcement of interest rate hikes. If the Fed announces interest rate hikes, it may further bottom out . On the contrary, if the Fed announces interest rate hikes less than expected, the market will usher in a big rise.
No matter how short-term fluctuates, from the perspective of market and valuation, the downward space of A-shares is limited. As for ordinary investors, instead of playing in the risks of short-term speculation, it is better to honestly accompany time and medium- and long-term value.
There is no recommendation in this article, and the stocks mentioned do not constitute any recommendations. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing.
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