[Military Martial Plane] Author: Lele
On October 17, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense declared that the army troops from Russia have begun to work with the Belarusian army to carry out joint defense tasks. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the land troops deployed by the Russian army this time will be mainly composed of about 9,000 soldiers and 170 tanks and . In addition, star equipment such as MiG-31 fighter (carrying "dagger" hypersonic weapons), Tu-160 bomber and other star equipment will also begin to be deployed in nearby areas. This has led to a rumor that has been widely circulated on social media since the Russian army arrived in Belarus on the 15th - the rumors that Russia and Belarus may organize coalition forces to go south and cut off the supply channels for equipment in Polish and Ukraine have become increasingly serious.
▲Domestic reports on the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus
From the map, Belarus has a large border with Ukraine and Poland, and the strategic benefits of the Russian-Belarus coalition forces going south are very obvious. In fact, in late February, the Russian army set out from Belarus and some airborne troops carried m-8 as a pilot to km-8. Later, the armored troops and airborne troops of the Eastern Military Region of the Russian Army also took ground vehicles and went south from then on to complete the three-sided encirclement of Kiev. In late March, the northern cluster of Russian troops, which was not going well, retreated again through the Wubai border, indicating that the Russian-Belgian coalition did have the geographical conditions to move south. However, the Pripyat swamp that lies across the Ukraine-white border is a huge geographical obstacle. Even the Soviet-German Battle was divided into two independent battlefields by them during the Second World War 3. It was very difficult for the Russian-Belarus coalition forces to solve this obstacle.
▲The Russian airborne troops fighting at the airport near Kiev in late February
Afterwards, the reason why the Russian army launched a slightly hasty operation in late February was that the permafrost layer of the Pripiat swamp was an important factor. After all, if it delayed, the permafrost would melt. The Russian army gave up the offensive and withdrew at the end of March, which was also because the permafrost would really melt immediately. Now it is late October, winter in the northern hemisphere is coming soon, Pripyat swamp is about to freeze again, and the strategic channel brought by nature will appear again. Theoretically, this is a valuable opportunity for the Russian army to move south again, but one obvious problem is that even if the coalition forces go south, they can only attack until the end of March 2023, because the permafrost will melt again by then. So is there any precedent for artificially crossing the swamp to complete military operations without relying on the natural environment? Yes, and it happened in Pripyat swamp.
▲Russian armored forces operating in muddy and frozen soil
0 June 22, 1944 (the day of the German attack on the Soviet Union for three whole years), the Soviet Army concentrated 8 front troops , totaling 2.33 million people, and launched an attack on the German Central Army (about 1 million people under its jurisdiction) that occupied Belarus from the north, central and southern directions. This is the "Bagragion" operation . Among them, the Soviet army, Ukrainian First Front Army, located on the southernmost wing, was responsible for heading north from Ukrainian plains, crossing the Pripyat swamp, and encircling the German army with armored troops down the north. During the battle preparation stage, the Ukrainian First Front Army stipulated strict confidentiality measures for combat preparations, and a large number of trees were placed in the muddy area of the swamp as temporary roads. The officers and soldiers also repeatedly practiced the skills and combat methods of moving in the swamp. Finally, when the battle was launched, it rushed out of the Pripyat swamp to encircle the German army, and together with friendly forces, they wiped out about 28 infantry divisions of the German army, becoming the most damaged battle in World War II.
▲Pripiat swamp was beautiful but very unsuitable for Mechanized Forces activities
In this operation, the Soviet Command had great concerns about crossing the swamp in an established manner, but it did not have a better choice, because at that time, the First Front Army of Ukraine had the most elite tank and armored troops in the Soviet army, and cross-border mobilization was unrealistic.In any case, history has proved that even in summer, modern armies still have the ability to cross the Pripyat swamp in an organized manner under the surveillance of the enemy. At least the elite Soviet army soldiers of more than 70 years ago had this level. But it should be noted that when the Soviet armored troops crossed the swamp, they immediately contacted friendly forces in other directions and received stable logistics supply. The temporary roads built in the swamp cannot guarantee the wartime consumption of hundreds of thousands of troops.
▲The modern army has a very strong demand for logistics supply
More importantly, the Russian army crossed the swamp in February and the Soviet army heading north to Belarus for more than 70 years, were all achieved when the opponent was not prepared and had very low vigilance. Now that Ukraine has learned its lessons, it has set up dense minefields on the Ukrainian border, it is difficult to break through easily. Even if the Russian-Belarus coalition forces really seize the blind spots of the Ukrainian army and use frozen soil or artificial temporary roads to complete breakthroughs, they still have to face the problem that swamp supply channels are difficult to maintain. Therefore, unless the Russian-Belarus coalition forces can move south in one go and quickly open up the supply line connected to friendly forces to the east, it will be impossible for them to go south to Ukraine. And if the Russian army really has this ability, why should we travel thousands of miles to Belarus? How could the front-line war develop into the embarrassing situation today?
▲The long-range attack capability of the Russian armored forces is extremely high
Therefore, it can be concluded with certainty that without major accidents, the Russian-Belarus coalition will not go south to Ukraine as some views believe. As for why the Russian army mobilized nearly 10,000 troops to Belarus when its troops were tight, the reason was actually very simple - to ensure strategic security in the northwest direction. During this special Russian military operation, Belarus paid a great price to support Russia, almost as enemies as Western World . In this regard, Russia also gave high returns - nuclear deterrence protection. However, the West still hoarded heavy troops on the western border of Belarus (after all, its strategic position is really important), and the defense pressure was extremely high. Therefore, since February, some combat brigades in the Eastern Military Region of the Russian Army have been staying in Belarus for response, and are now only given a more reasonable name.
▲The Russian army entering Belarus was given a gift
As the three most critical franchisees of the Soviet Union, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus played an important role in the Soviet era, and there were countless battles surrounding these three during World War II. Now 330 years after the collapse of , the three are remarried together again due to the direct influence of NATO's eastward expansion of , and Russia is also directly fighting with Ukraine. The relationship established for decades has been destroyed directly, which is really regrettable.
