On the last trading day of this week, the three major indexes of US stocks rose across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.59%, the Nasdaq rose 2.87%, and the S&P 500 rose 2.46%. This week, US technology giants have gone from bad to bad.
1 Tech giants are both in the world
A few days ago, Microsoft , Google and Meta released financial reports. Meta profit plummeted 52% to US$4.4 billion. Microsoft's revenue growth rate dropped to its lowest in five years, and Google's revenue growth rate plummeted from 41% in the same period last year to 6%. Waterloo's general financial report performance has caused their stock prices to fall to varying degrees. After the financial report was released, Google and Microsoft's stock prices fell by more than 6% after the disk, while Meta directly plummeted by nearly 20%.
Silicon Valley giants are storming, while Apple is alone in a wail. According to the third quarter report released by Apple , Apple's total revenue in the third quarter was US$90.146 billion, and increased by 8.1% year-on-year; net profit was US$20.71 billion, setting a new high in net profit in the same period. Obviously, compared with other giants, Apple's financial report is not that bad. After the financial report was released, Apple rose 7.56%.
continues to be at a high inflation data, commodity price rise brought about by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, etc., Federal Reserve began to launch the most radical interest rate hike in the past 30 years, and the US stock market continued to fall during the period. high valuation , and technology stock , which lacks cash flow , is the first to bear the brunt of it, ushering in a technology winter.
However, the US stock market, which is deeply trapped in the mud, seems to have ushered in a turning point in the near future. Although inflation is still at a high level, the data is basically in line with expectations. The U.S. core PCE price index rose 0.5% month-on-month in September, in line with expectations, and rose 5.1% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected value of 5.2%.
This data makes the market think a lot. Is the Fed monetary policy turning signal about to appear? Can the pace of rate hikes start to slow down? The recent trend of US stocks seems to be supporting this expectation in advance. The expectation of
is actually gradually strengthening recently, and the US stock market has actually ushered in a wave-like rebound in mid-October. In addition, the share of ETFs tracking major U.S. stock indexes is also gradually increasing, indicating that some funds have begun to increase.
(The contents of this article are listed in objective data and information and do not constitute any investment advice)
2 " white horse stock " has strangled
Since this year, the major stock indexes of A shares have ushered in a different degree of decline. As of October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 19.89% this year, the Shanghai Composite Index 50 Index has fallen by 28.93%, and the CSI 1000 has fallen by 22.10%.
Obviously, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, led by the weight of the white horse, has entered the so-called technical bear market , and the CSI 1000, which mainly focuses on small and medium-sized markets, has not performed that poorly. The relative strength of the Shanghai Composite Index is mainly due to the support of the rise of the new energy sector of in the first half of the year. Once new energy is put aside, the white horse blue chip is terrible.
Since October, Kweichow Moutai has fallen by 27.37%, Yili Shares 21.53%, Haitian Flavor Industry 25.50%, etc. In addition to the factors that the performance in the third quarter was lower than expected, there are mainly three reasons: the collapse of the fund group, the high valuation and the escape of foreign capital.
Once upon a time, the "Mao Index" that took over leading companies in various industries was unlimitedly popular. The characteristics of high growth and stable performance made the market very high tolerance for its high valuation. However, with the continuous tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve, the depreciation of the RMB continued, foreign capital's willingness to allocate A-shares decreased, and capital flight has accelerated since the third quarter. As a result, the market risk preference has decreased, and the valuation of blue-chip stocks premium has almost disappeared.
The market has always been " 28 law ", and most investors do not make money. So when most people think that the "Mao Index" is flawless, it falls from the altar.
In the short term, the risks of blue-chip stocks are still there. The poor economy has an impact on performance itself. The reduction in market risk preferences also suppresses valuation. Moreover, the outflow of foreign capital will continue until when.But from another perspective, when the market keeps its distance, it may be the time to pick it up. The password for investment is often very simple. Buy it in Wuming and sell it in a carnival.
If Fed rate hike is expected to slow down and the overall domestic economy will rebound, if the performance can remain stable, then this year's continuous pullback may be a good opportunity for later allocation.
3 The six major banks made 3.756 billion per day
Last night, the third quarter reports of the six major state-owned banks (Industry, Agricultural, China, Construction, Communications, and Postal Savings ) were disclosed.
According to statistics, the six major banks achieved a total operating income of over 2.8 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 2.36% year-on-year; and achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1025.422 billion yuan, an increase of 6.47% year-on-year. calculated in 273 days, the six major banks made an average daily profit of 3.756 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 228 million yuan from the same period last year.
Judging from the disclosed performance, the bank's revenue capacity is unquestionable, as strong as ever. But the divergence is its stock price, with the bank ETF falling by 8.13% in October.
On the one hand, the bank is in a mature stage and there is little room for growth. On the other hand, the bank stocks are too large, and it takes a lot of funds to push their stock prices up, so it is difficult for the entire sector to make efforts without the combined power of funds.
To put it bluntly, the current market continues to adjust, and the funds are not paying attention to the banking sector at present. But the performance in the third quarter is really impressive. In addition, the banking sector has been adjusted for a long time, and perhaps when the market recovers, funds will come.
Industry insiders are also optimistic about the banking sector's fundamentals in the fourth quarter. On the one hand, credit expansion has strong certainty and credit demand has rebounded. Everbright Securities stated that with the support of policy-based development financial tools, various special re-lending and medium- and long-term low-interest loans, credit expansion in infrastructure, manufacturing and other fields is highly certain.
On the other hand, the pressure on liabilities and costs of the bank sector is expected to be alleviated. Everbright Securities Research Report stated that a lower interest rate in deposit listing will help alleviate the pressure on liability costs, and the mismatch of asset-liability repricing cycles may drive the bank's net interest margin in the fourth quarter to flatten.
It is worth mentioning that from historical experience, the fourth quarter is usually the window for bank sector valuation repair. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research report stated that the fourth quarter is the annual closing window for capital positions and valuation switching, and trading factors cannot be ignored.
This article is derived from ETF evolution theory
