Before the US stock market on October 18, the three major US stock index futures rose. As of press time, Dow futures rose 1.68%, S&P 500 futures rose 1.87%, and Nasdaq futures rose 2.06%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 0.22% to US$84.72 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.40% to $91.99 per barrel.

Market News

Bank of America: Fund managers surrender completely, U.S. stocks will rebound in the first half of next year. Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said in a report Tuesday that the Bank of America's monthly global fund manager survey "showed signs of macro-surrender, investor surrender, and policy surrender." They expect that U.S. stock markets will bottom out in the first half of 2023 after the Federal Reserve finally stopped hiking rates. The survey shows that the number of respondents who expect the economy to weaken in the next 12 months is close to record levels, and 79% of respondents expect inflation to decline over the same period. The survey also shows that as the financial report season progresses, 83% of respondents expect the profit of global companies to deteriorate in the next 12 months; 91% of respondents said that the profits of global companies are unlikely to grow by 10% or more next year, which is the highest proportion since the global financial crisis. Strategists pointed out that this sign indicates that the profit expectations of the S&P 500 component company will fall further.

Xiaomah: Each central bank may make hawkish policy mistakes and reduce stock positions. JPMorgan strategists released a report on Monday saying that the bank is cutting stock positions while increasing its bond positions as major central banks may make overly hawkish policy mistakes. In his global asset allocation report released on Monday, Morgan Stanley wrote that the escalation in the situation in Russia and Ukraine has increased these risks. The bank said that stock market volatility will remain high, and bond yields may continue to be an important driver of stock market volatility in the near term. However, Morgan Stanley also pointed out that investors will also pay attention to the company's performance in the third quarter. "Although the correction performance of EPS per share has been incredibly strong so far, earnings may eventually show some weakness in the third quarter." The

model forecast shows that the U.S. economy is recession at 100% this year. Bloomberg Economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger's latest recession probability model predicts that the probability of recession is higher in all time periods, and the U.S. is expected to reach 100% in the next 12 months by October 2023, up from the previous forecast of 65%. In addition, the chances of a recession coming early are also increasing. The model predicts the possibility of a recession in 11 months from 30% to 73%, and the probability of a recession in 10 months from 0% to 25%. The general deterioration of economic and financial indicators as input to the model is the reason for the deterioration of the outlook. This is a blow to the economic message conveyed by U.S. President Biden and his party Democrats before the November midterm elections.

rumored that the United States will release up to 15 million barrels of oil reserves, and there will be no restrictions on fuel exports before November. It is reported that the Biden administration will release another 10 million to 15 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves to balance the market and prevent further rise in gasoline prices. This will be the latest part of the plan to release 180 million barrels of Strategic Oil Reserves (SPR) in March this year. In addition, the U.S. government is still considering limiting fuel exports, but will not make a decision before the November midterm elections. People familiar with the matter also revealed that the Biden administration is still considering limiting fuel exports to keep more gasoline and diesel in the United States. Although the Biden administration has not set a timeline for the move, it will not make a decision before the November midterm elections.

EU will announce the energy crisis emergency response plan, and will not immediately set an upper limit on natural gas prices. According to the draft document disclosed by the media, European Commission will recommend implementing a dynamic price cap on natural gas transactions at the Dutch Natural Gas Trading Centre (TTF), but this is only a last resort and requires authorization from EU member states. In order to establish a more direct mechanism to avoid extreme fluctuations in natural gas prices, the European Commission also proposed that EU trading venues should set an upper limit on the single-day rise and fall of energy derivatives in recent months by January 31, 2023. In addition, the EU hopes to use the organization's joint purchasing power as leverage for negotiations with global gas suppliers. As of press time, European natural gas prices fell by more than 7%.

Bank of England denies delaying bond issuance, and UK Treasury yields soar. UK Treasury bonds plummeted on Tuesday as the Bank of England denied reports that it would postpone the sale of Phnom Penh bonds. After the news was announced, the 10-year UK Treasury yield soared 11 basis points, breaking through 4% again. As of press time, the yield on the UK 10-year treasury bond rose 2.44% to 4.07%, while the yield on the UK 30-year treasury bond 1.45% to 4.435%. And on Monday, Treasury yields fell after the government canceled its fiscal plan to crack down on the market. The Bank of England said reports that it would postpone the issuance of bonds was inaccurate. Traders are worried that the central bank and the government will issue large quantities of sovereign bonds . This is the latest blow to the UK market that has been volatile in recent weeks. With the still fragile market sentiment and pension funds facing the requirement of margin , investors have been expecting the Bank of England to delay the implementation of the so-called quantitative tightening policy (QT).

stocks news

Goldman Sachs (GS.US) Q3 revenue and EPS exceeded expectations, and investment banking business revenue decreased by 57% year-on-year. financial report shows that Goldman Sachs Q3 revenue was US$11.98 billion, better than the market's generally expected US$11.41 billion; net profit was US$3.07 billion, compared with US$5.38 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 43%; diluted earnings per share was US$8.25, better than the market's generally expected US$7.69. Among them, the investment banking business revenue was US$1.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 57%, lower than the market expectations of US$1.63 billion; net interest income was US$2.04 billion, and increased by 31% year-on-year. The bank's credit loss reserves for the third quarter were $515 million, compared with $175 million in the same period last year. In addition, Goldman Sachs said it will carry out some business restructuring, and the bank's fundamentals will not change due to business restructuring. Goldman Sachs CEO also said that there is a high possibility of an economic recession and pointed out that we should think carefully about risk appetite , and expect more volatility in the future. As of press time, Goldman Sachs' U.S. stock market rose nearly 3% before the market trading on Tuesday.

JPY (JNJ.US) Q3 revenue exceeded expectations by US$23.791 billion, and net profit increased by 21.6% year-on-year. financial report shows that Johnson & Johnson's Q3 revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year to US$23.791 billion, better than the market's expectations of US$23.44 billion; net profit was US$4.458 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%. Adjusted net profit was $6.779 billion, down 2.7% year-on-year; adjusted diluted earnings per share was $2.55, compared with $2.60 in the same period last year, but better than the market expectations of $2.49. Johnson & Johnson expects sales (excluding new crown vaccine revenue) in 2022 to be $93 billion, which was previously expected to be $93.3 billion to $94.3 billion; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $10.02-10.07, which was previously expected to be $10.00-10.10. Meanwhile, due to the ongoing impact of inflation, the company expects its adjusted pre-tax operating margin to fall by about 50 basis points, down from previous forecasts.

AVEO Pharmaceuticals (AVEO.US) rose more than 38% before the market trading and will be acquired by LG Chemical for US$566 million. On the news front, LG Chemical will acquire AVEO Pharmaceuticals in an all-cash transaction of US$15.00 per share, with a total transaction value of US$566 million. According to data, AVEO Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of oncology treatment and other areas that do not meet medical needs. Upon completion of the transaction, Aveo Pharmaceuticals will operate as the American Business Foundation and will immediately establish a commercial presence of LG Chem in the oncology field through the company's leading product FOTIVDA (Tivozanib). The deal is expected to close in early 2023. Boosted by this news, before the U.S. stock market trading on Tuesday, AVEO Pharmaceuticals rose 38.36% to $14.50 as of press time.

Microsoft (MSFT.US) confirmed that it will lay off nearly 1,000 employees, involving departments such as Xbox and Edge.A Microsoft spokesman confirmed on Monday that the company will lay off employees as revenue is expected to slow down due to weak Windows license sales for PCs. The number of people cuts this time is less than 1,000, involving departments such as Xbox and Edge. A company spokesperson told the media: "Like all companies, we will regularly evaluate the priority of our business and adjust the structure accordingly. We will continue to invest in our business and recruit employees in key growth areas in the coming year." Microsoft's layoffs are consistent with the practices taken by technology companies large and small to reduce costs. Among them, Meta Platforms and SF Express have slowed down their recruitment pace this year, while Coinbase, Netflix and other companies have all laid off work.

Credit Suisse (CS.US) "Survival after cutting off the arm", intends to sell US asset management business. According to people familiar with the matter, Credit Suisse is considering selling its Credit Suisse Asset Management Company (CSAM)'s asset management business in the United States and has recently started the sale process of CSAM's subsidiary. The above-mentioned subsidiaries include an investment platform for secured loan certificates (CLOs), which is expected to attract interest from private equity firms, people familiar with the matter said. Credit Suisse has not made a final decision yet and may eventually choose to retain the business, according to people familiar with the matter. On Monday, more than one media broke the news that Credit Suisse may attract investment in the Middle East sovereign wealth fund. Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia are considering whether to put funds into Credit Suisse's investment bank and other businesses to take advantage of the sluggish value, people familiar with the matter said. Transactions may also be achieved through other ways in which each country has a large number of shares. Potential investors are cautious about the risks of future losses or legal issues, people familiar with the matter said.

Important economic data and event preview

Beijing time 21:15 US industrial output monthly rate in September

Beijing time next day 02:00 2024 FOMC vote committee and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic delivered a speech

Beijing time next day 04:30 US API crude oil inventory changes in the week ending October 14

Beijing time next day 05:30 Beijing time next day 2023 FOMC voter, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkali speaks on economic issues

Performance forecast

Wednesday morning: Netflix (NFLX.US), United (UAL.US), Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US)

Before Wednesday trading: Asmay (ASML.US), Procter & Gamble (PG.US), Abbott (ABT.US)