Source: Privy Council No. 10
The US Navy's dual aircraft carriers recently conducted drills in the waters east of Taiwan. Since the exercise area coincides with the "Imperial Photographer" , the Japanese Ministry of Defense recently announced the Liaoning ship formation drill area of China, the outside world pays great attention to the drill of US aircraft carriers. But Lao Liu believes that in addition to the seemingly mysterious exercise areas and the timing of the dual aircraft carriers being deployed, we should actually pay more attention to the following content. At the same time, there is another detail worth paying attention to: the drill screen released by the US military seems to have something very unlucky for them.
Let’s take a look at the news first.
What attracted attention to the US dual aircraft carriers was not the official announcement of the US Navy's Seventh Fleet . Instead, a Weibo post titled " US Navy dual aircraft carrier exercise in Okinawa" by the Chinese think tank South China Sea strategic situational awareness platform on the 29th: From May 28 to 29, the integrated aircraft carrier-based ADS-B signal and remote sensing image, the US "Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group and the "Reagan" aircraft carrier strike group have been transferred from Yokosuka and Iwo Jima, Japan to the southeastern waters of Okinawa respectively, and conducted dual aircraft carrier exercises.
"The Seventh Fleet of the Navy officially announced the situation of the exercise, but did not mention the exercise location. On May 29, the planet satellite captured one of the aircraft carriers in the southeastern waters of Okinawa, thus confirming our speculation."
Judging from the information released by the South China Sea strategic situation awareness platform, the area of this exercise is probably located in the Philippine waters east of Taiwan.
If you refer to the area of the Liaoning ship formation drill previously released by the Japanese Ministry of Defense’s General Staff Supervision Department, it seems that there is a considerable overlap. Of course, since , the US Seventh Fleet, , seems to be deliberately "low-key", there are no public exercises so far. The location of the aircraft carrier released by the South China Sea strategic situation awareness platform is also an estimated position based on the flight trajectory of the aircraft carrier-based "Greyhound" transport aircraft.
The position of the Chinese aircraft carrier formation released by the Japanese side on May 13.
The position of the Chinese aircraft carrier formation released by the Japanese side on May 15.
If the US dual aircraft carrier strike group really conducts drills in the waters of China's aircraft carrier drills, it may mean that the US military is practicing in the exercise once the Western Pacific "is something wrong" or the Taiwan Strait "is something wrong", how can the US aircraft carrier strike group "intercept" the PLA's naval and air forces on the first island chain, support Taiwan, and deter the mainland. At the same time, the US aircraft carrier strike group practiced near Philippine Sea near Taiwan and Okinawa , and could cooperate and support each other with the shore-based aviation forces of the US military stationed in Japan. In addition, the cruise missiles and carrier-based aviation forces in the fleet can theoretically cover a considerable part of the Asian continent, and the carrier-based "Tomahawk" cruise missiles can even cover the Korean Peninsula.
So is this the biggest threat to this dual-carrier drill?
Lao Liu believes that this is not exactly the case.
First of all, the Philippine Sea is a considerable sea area. To the west are the Philippine Islands and Taiwan Island , to the northwest are Ryukyu Islands , and to the north are kyushu Island-shikoku Island- Honshu Island in Japan. This area can be said to be a hot spot for US aircraft carrier formation drills. The aircraft carrier strike groups that cruise the South China Sea often cruise here, and even practice exercises.
Moreover, this sea area is vast, which is very suitable for the US aircraft carrier strike group to maneuver on a large scale here. At the same time, the area of each drill of the US aircraft carrier may be adjusted to certain extent. If there is a certain overlap in the exercise areas of the Chinese and US aircraft carrier formations, it can only mean that this area is a sea and airspace that both sides must control when something happens.
Judging from the exercise content, the Lincoln was equipped with a squadron of F-35C carrier-based fighter jets. Will the USS Reagan, as the same type of aircraft carrier, take off and land the F-35C, and prepare for the subsequent F-35C carrier-based aircraft troops to board the ship?
Judging from the current situation, this possibility is not too great. "Reagan" ended its regular maintenance and maintenance on May 16 and left the home port Yokosuka base. Therefore, its drill may be more about conducting more basic courses, focusing on "recovery status".
This seems to be used as a reference through the drill screen posted on the account of the US Navy's Seventh Fleet .
From the screen, the Deck of the Lincoln aircraft numbered No. 72 was parked with the Super Hornet and F-35C carrier-based aircraft, but the deck of the Reagan, numbered No. 76, seemed empty. According to the pictures released by the Seventh Fleet, the US military was carrying out vertical helicopter transport of materials at that time. Therefore, the Reagan cleared the deck to facilitate material transfer drills.
can be seen more clearly from this perspective.
But there is a very interesting detail, that is, in the picture above, there are a large number of white devices placed on the deck of the Lincoln aircraft carrier. It is estimated that it should be supplies for the "Seahawk" helicopter to carry out vertical transportation. However, from a visual perspective, it can't help but make people sweat for the Americans' exercise - it's very much like placing a large number of body bags.
I don’t know if the officer in charge of publicity and planning of the US Seventh Fleet posted the picture without sufficient review of the possible meaning of this promotional photo.
Of course, these are all personal intuitive feelings at first glance. After reading the pictures attached to the Seventh Fleet, you can still understand the specific meaning of the picture.
Lao Liu believes that in addition to the exercise area, there is another point that deserves attention to in this dual-aircraft carrier exercise.
This exercise was conducted against the backdrop of a joint exercise with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. Previously, the 7th Fleet website posted a news from the Philippine Sea that from the 24th to the 26th, the 15th Destroyer Squadron under the USS Reagan aircraft carrier strike group conducted bilateral training with the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, including verification, boarding, searching, seizure (VBSS) tactical drills, anti-submarine warfare training and electronic warfare drills, which shows that "the United States and Japan are committed to sharing information at sea."
According to the US release, this bilateral drill was only sent to the destroyer squadron of the USS Reagan to conduct a drill with Nazi, rather than directly participating in the aircraft carrier. Therefore, this drill is more like a cover to prevent the outside world from confirming the action of the aircraft carrier.
Lao Liu believes that from this perspective, we can understand the reason why the US Navy deliberately low-key in the exercise areas and modes of this dual-aircraft carrier exercise. This mode of quietly entering the battle position by conducting drills with AIA is likely to be a focus of the US Navy's drill.
But Lao Liu also wants to remind you that with the continuous development of long-range anti-ship forces such as China's anti-ship ballistic missile , the area for daily drills of large ship fleets including US aircraft carriers is already within the range of China's medium- and long-range anti-ship missiles. If the US Navy wants to perform tasks against China in relevant sea and airspace in the future, it will only put itself in huge risks. The picture of the deck full of "draft props" may indicate something.
