(Producer/Author: East Asia Qianhai Securities, Li Zizhuo, Ding Junbo)
. Overview: Excellent performance and wide application, China has become the leading industry1.1. glass fiber : a wide range of alternative materials
1.1.1. Glass fiber products: rich in variety and wide application
glass fiber is an extremely thin inorganic non-metallic material. Glass fiber is an inorganic fiber made of natural inorganic non-metallic ores such as white piping stone, leaf wax stone, kaolin , quartz sand , limestone and other natural inorganic non-metallic ores as raw materials, and processed in a certain formula through high-temperature melting, drawing, drying and post-processing. The diameter of the single filament is several microns to more than twenty microns, which is equivalent to 1/20-1/5 of a hair.
glass fibers are numerous and are suitable for different scenarios. Glass fiber can be divided into different types such as alkali-free, medium-alkali, high-strength, boron-free and alkali-free according to its composition, and its performance varies, and is applied in different fields according to its performance characteristics. For example, glass fibers with an oxide content of less than 0.8% of alkali metal are alkali-free glass fibers, which have good electrical insulation and mechanical properties, and have poor acid resistance. Therefore, they are widely used in scenarios where electrical insulation is required or used in fiberglass ; alkali metal oxide content between 11.9%-16.4% is medium alkali glass fibers, which have strong acid resistance but poor electrical properties, and have lower mechanical strength than alkali-free glass fibers. They are used abroad for reinforced asphalt roofing materials with low mechanical strength requirements; high-strength glass fibers contain a certain amount of zirconia, which has the characteristics of high tensile strength, low yield and high cost, so they are focused on military products; in addition, high alkali fibers have poor performance and have basically been eliminated.
glass fiber can be directly used to produce glass fiber products. Glass fiber products can be subdivided into two categories: non-woven products and textile products, and are widely used. Nonwoven products refer to products made of glass fibers by nonwoven methods such as thermal, chemical and mechanical. They are mainly glass fiber felts and can be used in many fields such as building materials, refrigeration utensils, automotive interiors, fiberglass pipelines, and . Glass fiber textile products are the common name for textile products made of continuous glass fiber or fixed-length glass fiber as the base material, including glass fiber cloth , multi-axial fabric, sewing braided fabric and glass tape, among which glass fiber cloth dominates and is mainly used to produce fiberglass, building materials and copper clad plates. The remaining textile products can be used to produce electrical equipment parts, wind power blades, concrete thin plates, etc.
1.1.2. Glass fiber composite material: Excellent performance and broad prospects
glass fiber can also be combined with other materials to make glass fiber composite material, among which fiberglass fiber is the main product. Glass fiber can be synthesized with resin to form glass fiber reinforced plastic (Fiberglass fiberglass), or added asphalt to make glass fiber reinforced asphalt, etc. Due to the large variety of composite materials, there is currently no clear classification of glass fiber composite materials. According to data from the Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, fiberglass accounts for about 75% of the glass fiber composite materials and products market, occupying a dominant position. Therefore, we take fiberglass as an example to analyze the performance advantages of glass fiber composite materials. FRP is an alternative material with excellent comprehensive performance.
FRP is a composite material that uses synthetic resin as the substrate and uses glass fiber and its products (felt, cloth, tape, etc.) as the reinforcement material. The name of fiberglass comes from its appearance and tensile strength comparable to steel. Compared with the most common steels in construction, the steel density is 7.85×10 3kg/m3, and the fiberglass density is 1.9×10 3kg/m3, which is lighter than steel, and the specific strength and corrosion resistance are far superior to steel. Compared with aluminum alloy, the thermal conductivity of aluminum alloy reaches 203.5W/m.℃, and the thermal conductivity of fiberglass is 0.3W/m.℃. fiberglass has better insulation performance, and the service life of fiberglass is 50 years, which is twice that of aluminum alloy. Due to its excellent comprehensive performance, fiberglass, as a substitute for traditional materials, is widely used in many industries such as construction, railways, aerospace, yachts and mooring.
FRP can be divided into GRTP and GRP, among which GRTP has better performance.FRP can be divided into glass fiber reinforced thermoplastic plastic (GRTP) and glass fiber reinforced thermosetting plastic (GRP). The difference between the two is mainly in whether the curing process is reversible. The process of GRTP's heating softening and cooling hardening is a physical change and can be repeated; the process of GRP's heating and curing undergoes chemical changes and cannot be processed again through heating. Thermoplastics have a density of as low as 1.1g/cm3, few processing steps, a raw material utilization rate of up to 95%, and can be recycled. In addition to areas where curing requirements are required, thermoplastic plastic has better performance and is therefore more popular in the market.
1.2. Process: The crucible method is gradually eliminated, and the pool kiln method has become the mainstream
crucible method has complex technology. The production process of glass fiber is divided into crucible wire drawing method and pond kiln wire drawing method. The crucible wire drawing process is complex. Taking the double crucible method as an example, the double crucible method is to first purify the selected core material and leather material, and then put it into the platinum double crucible and heat it to over 1000℃. After the core leather glass melts, the molten core leather glass flows out of the leak due to its own weight, and is pulled into a raw silk under the traction action of the wire collecting wheel. The
crucible method is divided into the platinum crucible method and the clay crucible method, among which the clay crucible method has been disabled. The main difference between the clay crucible method and the platinum-replaced crucible method is the crucible material. The clay crucible method uses clay crucible as a wire drawing leaking plate for production operations, and the melting furnace is relatively simple. The clay crucible method was introduced earlier and was introduced into my country in the 1950s. It has backward technology and many defects. According to Zuo Jie's "Glass Fiber produced with Clay Crucibles are all inferior products", the disadvantages of the clay crucible method include poor product quality, short service life, and high production energy consumption. In July 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Specifications and Conditions for the Glass Fiber Industry", which stipulated that the production process and equipment of clay crucible glass fiber drawing were completely eliminated.
pool kiln wire drawing method was introduced late and it began to be applied on a large scale since 2004. The pool kiln wire drawing method melts the raw materials into a glass solution in the kiln, removes the bubbles and transports them to the porous leakage plate through the passage, and draws them at high speed to form glass fiber raw wire, which is simple and efficient. The introduction of the pool kiln wire drawing method was late, marking the first introduction of Zhuhai Fiberglass Factory with an annual output of 4,000 tons of alkali-free glass fiber pool kiln wire drawing production line in 1989. In 2004, China Jushi built the first domestic production line of 60,000 tons of pond kiln wire drawing. The production line has significantly improved efficiency and reduced energy consumption, marking the beginning of large-scale pond kiln wire drawing in my country. The pool kiln method has become the mainstream technology at home and abroad. Compared with the crucible method, the pool kiln method has simple processes, energy saving and consumption reduction, stable molding, efficient and high yield, and is convenient for large-scale fully automated production. However, the requirements for technical thresholds and initial investment costs are high. It is favored by large enterprises with strong capital strength at home and abroad, and is a mainstream international production process. In 2021, the production of glass fiber in my country's pond kiln method accounted for about 93%, and only some small glass fiber manufacturers in China are still using the crucible wire drawing method.
1.3. Industrial chain: Raw materials are easy to obtain, downstream coverage is widely
glass fiber upstream raw materials are easy to obtain, and downstream applications are relatively wide. The raw materials produced by glass fiber are mainly mineral raw materials and chemical raw materials, including white foil, wax stone, kaolin, quartz sand, limestone, etc., which are minerals with large reserves in my country and are less difficult to obtain; the energy used is mainly electricity and natural gas; downstream applications are relatively wide, mainly including building materials, transportation, electronics and electrical appliances, industrial equipment, energy and environmental protection and other fields.
1.4. China: Three stages and two cost reductions, ranking globally as the leading
The development history of my country's glass fiber industry can be divided into three stages: (1) Starting period (1958-1988): In 1958, the annual production of 500 tons of alkali-free glass fiber workshop in Shanghai Yaohua Glass Factory was officially put into production, marking the beginning of the construction of my country's glass fiber industrial system. In the next 30 years of development, a complete glass fiber industrial system was gradually established, and the glass fiber process was mainly crucible wire drawing. (2) Rapid development period (1989-2008): In 1989, Zhuhai Glass Fiber Factory introduced a full set of technologies and equipment for an annual output of 4,000 tons of alkali-free glass fiber pool kiln wire drawing production line, which opened a new journey of producing glass fiber by the pool kiln method.From 2000 to 2008, my country's glass fiber industry developed rapidly. In 2004, China Jushi built the first domestic pool kiln wire drawing production line with an annual output of 60,000 tons, marking the beginning of large-scale pool kiln wire drawing production in my country; in 2007, my country's glass fiber production reached 1.6 million tons, ranking first in the world.
(3) Maturity period (2009 to present): my country has established a complete supporting system for glass fiber raw materials, manufacturing, equipment, etc., forming a glass fiber production method with Chinese characteristics. China's glass fiber industry has become the leader and engine in the world's glass fiber manufacturing industry. According to statistics from China Glass Fiber Industry Association , my country's glass fiber production in 2019 accounted for 65.88% of the world's glass fiber production. The development of the
glass fiber industry focuses on cost reduction and incremental growth, and roughly goes through two cycles of this reduction. As a widely used alternative material, high cost performance is the core advantage of glass fiber, and compared to improving performance, reducing cost increments are more suitable as the core driving force for the development of glass fiber. Historically, major glass fiber enterprises in my country have experienced two cycles of this reduction: the first round was from 2004 to 2012. The main line was the large-scale pool kiln, and the scale effect drove the decline in production costs (reduced labor and depreciation costs), marking the construction of the first 60,000-ton pool kiln wire drawing production line in Jushi Group ; the second round was from 2012 to the present, and the main line was the improvement of production technology (reduced energy consumption, etc.) brought by cold repair technology transformation and intelligent manufacturing. For example, China Jushi "Future Factory" has innovative breakthroughs in seven major glass fiber industries, and has collected 1,218 various management and control information of the production line in real time, with a reduction in production costs by 12%, and a 24% increase in production efficiency, with excellent cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
China has become the global fiberglass industry center, and its domestic revenue share continues to increase. In recent years, China's glass fiber industry has developed rapidly and has occupied the dominant position in the world's glass fiber industry. According to data from China Glass Fiber Industry Association , the proportion of China's glass fiber production in global output increased rapidly from only 9.8% in 2000 to 54.3% in 2012, and then steadily rose to 65.9% in 2019. The export dependence of my country's glass fiber enterprises has also declined. Taking the industry giants China Jushi and Taishan glass fiber as an example, the export revenue of China Jushi and Taishan glass fiber fell from 55.1% and 36.8% in 2012 to 32.6% and 19.6% in 2020, respectively, and the domestic region has gradually become the main source of income.
2.1. The first-mover advantage is obvious, and the oligopolis pattern has become the
glass fiber industry has a high financial barrier, and enterprises are more cautious in entering the market. The glass fiber industry belongs to the heavy asset industry. Glass fiber products and their large-scale production require high investment in fixed assets, which is mainly reflected in the construction of pool kilns, factory areas, and equipment such as wire drawing machines, , platinum and rhodium alloys. And as glass fiber production capacity increases, investment will increase accordingly. According to the International Composite Materials Prospectus, the investment in fixed assets of ordinary alkali-free glass fiber roving kilns is approximately RMB 100 million per 1000 tons. China Jushi, Shandong Fiberglass and Chongqing International invested in fixed assets per unit capacity of about 13,000 yuan per ton. In addition, glass fiber has supply rigidity, and once the production line is ignited, it cannot be ceased for 8-10 years, and enterprises are more cautious in entering the market.
In addition to the high capital barrier, the glass fiber industry is also an technology-intensive industry , and the first-mover advantage of enterprises is obvious. On the one hand, the production process of glass fiber includes kilns, infiltrator formulas, porous leakage plates, adhesives and other technologies. It takes a certain amount of time for enterprises to master these technologies. On the other hand, glass fiber has a wide range of applications, and glass fibers used for specific purposes require time to be invested in targeted research and development, which puts forward more stringent requirements on the production and R&D capabilities of glass fiber enterprises. Enterprises that are the first to set up projects and achieve results have obvious advantages. The high competitive barriers in the glass fiber industry have led to a relatively concentrated market structure. The high entry barriers in the glass fiber industry have led to fewer companies in the industry, and the market has gradually formed an oligopolistic competitive landscape, and the industry concentration is relatively high. Calculated by capacity, the global glass fiber market in 2020 was about 47% and CR5 was about 64%. Among them, China Jushi is the leader in the glass fiber industry, accounting for about 23%.
The Chinese market has formed a "three majors and three small" pattern, and the market structure is relatively stable. "Three Big Three Small" refers to the six companies ranked among the top in the domestic glass fiber industry. China Jushi, Taishan Glass Fiber and Chongqing International are the first echelons, and Shandong Glass Fiber , Sichuan Weibo , and Changhai Co., Ltd. are the second echelons. In 2021, the total production capacity of the "three majors" accounts for about 61% of the national glass fiber production capacity, CR5 is about 72%, and the market concentration is relatively high. Because the fiberglass industry has high entry barriers and competitive barriers, it is difficult for new entrants to catch up with the forefront of the industry and the market structure is relatively stable.
2.2. China's production capacity has expanded in an orderly manner. In 2022, the supply impact is limited
In recent years, my country's glass fiber production capacity and output have expanded in an orderly manner. In 2017, the glass fiber industry ushered in a boom in the construction of the pool kiln project. Under the coordination of the glass fiber association and the leadership of leading enterprises, the industry's production capacity expanded in an orderly manner. According to , the total production capacity of China's glass fiber industry association data, as of June 2021, my country's total glass fiber production capacity was 6.23 million tons/year, with an average annual compound growth rate from 2015 to the first half of 2021 being 12.7%. In terms of output, my country's glass fiber production increased from 3.23 million tons in 2015 to 6.24 million tons in 2021, with an average annual compound growth rate of 11.5%. In 2022, the new production capacity of glass fiber will be concentrated in May and beyond, and the supply impact will be limited. According to the announcements of various companies, my country plans to deploy glass fiber production capacity in the future by about 2.17 million tons, of which 730,000 tons are planned to be deployed in 2022 and 260,000 tons in 2023. Another about 1.18 million tons are still not determined. Since most of the new capacity is put into use in May and beyond in 2022, considering the existence of the capacity climbing period, the release of production capacity of this part of production may continue until 2023. In addition, some domestic production lines will release water and renovate, the overall impact on the supply in 2022 is limited.
2.3. The entry threshold is raised, the capacity structure optimization
policy promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure, and the industry entry threshold is raised. In November 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "H Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Directory ", which included the development and production of high-performance glass fiber rovings (monofilament diameter of 9 microns) in the pool kiln wire drawing technology of 80,000 tons/year or above, the alkali-free glass fiber yarn (monofilament diameter of 9 microns) in the pool kiln wire drawing technology of 80,000 tons/year or above, and the technology development and production of high-performance glass fiber and glass fiber products such as ultrafine, high strength and high mold, alkali resistance, low dielectric, high silicon oxygen, degradable, and special-shaped cross-sections. In July 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Specifications and Conditions for the Glass Fiber Industry", which stipulated that the clay crucible glass fiber drawing production process and equipment should be completely eliminated, and the industry production model would be transformed into a large-scale pool kiln wire drawing production line. At the same time, it puts forward higher requirements for the design, construction and operation capabilities of glass fiber production enterprises to increase the entry threshold for the glass fiber industry. The proportion of
pool kiln method has gradually increased, and the elimination of backward production capacity has brought about room for alternative development. Due to the many advantages of the pool kiln method compared with the crucible method, the proportion of pool kiln yarn output has increased significantly in recent years, from 76.8% in 2006 to 92.9% in 2021, but about 7% of the output is still produced by the crucible method. With the restriction of the crucible production line in the "Guidelines for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2019 Edition)" and the 2020 "Specifications for Glass Fiber Industry" it is expected that the old crucible production line will be gradually withdrawn or replaced with a pool kiln production line, and the industry's supply may face a structural gap.
Under the guidance of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the structure of the glass fiber industry is expected to continue to be optimized. In September 2021, the China Glass Fiberglass Industry Association issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Glass Fiberglass Industry" requiring that by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the proportion of various high-performance and special glass fiber yarns in the total production of glass fiber yarns should increase to 50% or more, and the proportion of foreign trade exports of industry products will be reduced to less than 20%. We expect that under the guidance of the "14th Five-Year Plan", my country's glass fiber products will further increase self-sufficiency, product iteration will be further accelerated, and the proportion of high-end products will increase.
3. Demand: Wind power cars are blooming in multiple points, and cyclical growth attributes are switched
3.1. my country's growth attributes are prominent, leading enterprises are moving towards high-end
my country's apparent consumption of glass fiber has grown rapidly, and the industry has transformed to high-end.From 2010 to 2021, my country's apparent consumption of glass fiber increased from 1.607 million tons to 4.739 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 10.3%; my country's export volume increased from 1.21 million tons to 1.683 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 3.0%; import volume decreased from 257,000 tons to 182,000 tons. According to the data from China Glass Fiber Industry Association , most of my country’s imported glass fiber fibers are high-end glass fibers with high technical content, and the unit price is about 3 times that of my country’s exported glass fibers. The decrease in imports indicates that my country's technological strength has been enhanced and the industry's transformation to high-end is effective.
China's glass fiber industry is highlighted. The demand side of glass fiber includes both the construction and pipe and tank industries that are biased towards cycles, as well as the growth-oriented areas such as wind power and automobile lightweight. Therefore, the fiberglass industry has both cycle and growth attributes. From a global perspective, the fiberglass industry is closely related to the macroeconomic . According to the International Related Materials Prospectus, the growth rate of apparent consumption of glass fiber is related to the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of industrial added value . The annual average growth rate of apparent consumption in the glass fiber industry is generally 1.5-2 times the GDP growth rate. Taking the European glass fiber reinforced plastic market as an example, the growth rate of the apparent consumption of European glass fiber reinforced plastics/Europe’s real GDP is mostly between 1.3-2. However, in recent years, my country's glass fiber market has developed rapidly, and the apparent consumption growth rate of glass fiber is much higher than the year-on-year growth rate of domestic real GDP, and the growth attributes are more prominent.
glass fiber consumption is expected to continue to increase, with a large potential space. According to data from Wind and the China Glass Fiberglass Industry Association, my country's per capita consumption of glass fiber has continued to rise in recent years, from 1.32 kilograms/person in 2011 to 3.35 kilograms/person in 2021, with an average annual compound growth rate of 9.7%. However, there is still a gap between my country's per capita consumption of glass fiber and developed countries. Taking the United States as an example, the per capita consumption of glass fiber in my country in 2018 was 2.34 kg/person, while the United States was about 5.9 kg/person, far higher than my country's level in 2018 or even 2021. my country's glass fiber consumption still has a lot of room for improvement.
my country's downstream application of glass fiber is mainly based on architecture, and has great growth potential in emerging fields. According to data from the China Jing Industrial Research Institute, construction is the largest glass fiber application field in my country. In 2020, glass fiber consumption in the construction field accounted for 34%; followed by electronics and electrical appliances, accounting for 21%; transportation, pipelines, and interbank applications accounted for 16%, 12% and 10% respectively, while new energy and environmental protection accounted for only 7%, with great growth potential. With the rapid development of the new energy industry and the efforts of national policies, the proportion of new energy environmental protection is expected to continue to increase in the future. Leaders in the fiberglass industry continue to penetrate into emerging fields. In recent years, my country's glass fiber enterprises have continued to develop towards high-end development and are focusing on emerging fields. Taking Taishan glass fiber as an example, from 2013 to 2020, the proportion of demand in the downstream transportation field of Taishan glass fiber increased from 12% to 20%, the proportion of demand in the wind power field increased from 6% to 27%, and the construction field was relatively stable. The optimization of the demand structure of glass fiber leaders reflects the high-end demand structure of my country's glass fiber industry, and the industry leaders are constantly moving towards emerging fields.
3.2. Construction: Infrastructure support stabilizes growth, and in conjunction with carbon reduction demand to increase
3.2.1. Infrastructure support support the construction industry, glass fiber reinforcement is expected to replace
00 under the infrastructure support, which will boost the demand for glass fiber reinforcement. The construction industry is the highest-profile area in downstream applications of fiberglass, with consumption accounting for 34% in 2020. In recent years, my country's construction industry has grown relatively steadily. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output value of the construction industry in 2021 was 29.31 trillion yuan, and the average annual compound growth rate from 2011 to 2021 was 9.67%. Since 2022, in order to drive stable economic growth and overcome the impact of the epidemic, the country has increased infrastructure investment and fully played the role of infrastructure support. According to National Bureau of Statistics data, the cumulative investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) in the first half of 2022 increased by 7.1% year-on-year, with new special bonds reaching 3.4 trillion yuan. At present, my country's economy continues to recover, and the growth rate of construction engineering investment and real estate investment has rebounded, which is expected to drive the increase in demand for building materials, including steel bars and fiberglass.
Compared with traditional steel bars, glass fiber reinforced fibers have advantages in performance and are expected to form a replacement.According to Ye Yi's "Backing the Gap between FRP and Reinforcement Bar", fiberglass fiberglass has the following advantages: ① Light weight: The weight of fiberglass fiberglass is 1/4 of the steel bars, which is easy to carry and manage; ② Less working hours: The working hours required to install fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass bars can be increased by 0.5 inches compared to the spacing between steel bars. Combined with tariffs and other factors, fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglas Higher the service life of the bridge structure.
3.2.2. Operational consumption reduction is imminent, and glass fiber energy-saving advantages are obvious
Building operation energy consumption is huge, and energy consumption demand is urgent. Building energy consumption refers to the energy consumption in the entire process from building materials manufacturing, building construction to building use, and can be divided into building materials production, building construction and building operation energy consumption. Among them, energy consumption in building operation refers to people's daily energy consumption, including heating, air conditioning, lighting, laundry, etc. Among them, heating and air conditioning are the main parts. According to the China Building Energy Consumption Research Report (2020), the total energy consumption of the whole construction process in 2018 was 2.233 billion tons of standard coal equivalent (tce), and the total carbon emission was 4.997 billion tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2), of which the total energy consumption during construction operation was 1.03 billion tce, and the carbon emission was 2.13 billion tCO2, accounting for 21.2% of the total energy consumption in the country and 21.6% of the carbon emission proportion, respectively. It is imminent to reduce building operation energy consumption.
Green Building Policy proposes near-zero energy consumption building area indicators. Green Building refers to a building that achieves environmentally friendly and effective use of resources at all stages of the entire life cycle. Nearly zero energy consumption buildings refer to a building whose energy consumption level is 60% to 70% lower than national and industry standards, which puts higher requirements on the construction methods of buildings, including building materials. In March 2022, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Building Energy Saving and Green Building Development", requiring that by 2025, the energy-saving renovation area of existing buildings will be completed with an area of more than 350 million square meters, and the construction area of ultra-low energy consumption and near-zero energy consumption will be more than 500 million square meters. To this end, it is urgent to find new building materials with better insulation effect and can effectively reduce the energy consumption of building operations.
glass fiber reinforcement also has more advantages than traditional building materials in terms of energy saving. Taking building doors and windows as an example, the energy-saving advantages of fiberglass are specifically manifested as: ① Thermal expansion is consistent with that of the building. The thermal expansion coefficient of fiberglass is 8×10 -6 /℃, which is equivalent to buildings and glass. Therefore, the expansion and contraction caused by temperature changes are consistent, avoiding cracks and reducing heat leakage. ② Thermal conductivity is small. The thermal conductivity of fiberglass material is 1% of steel and 1‰ of aluminum alloy, which can hinder the transfer of heat on doors and windows. ③Good sealing. FRP doors and windows is sealed with rubber during assembly, and the sealing properties of fasting structure FRP doors and windows are better than other types of doors and windows. ④ Low insulation cost. FRP doors and windows mainly achieve building energy saving by improving their own thermal insulation performance. Aluminum alloy doors and windows need to achieve an ideal thermal conductivity, and the cost per square meter is about 102 yuan, but fiberglass doors and windows can achieve an ideal thermal conductivity without increasing the cost. In addition, fiberglass also has excellent performance in energy saving when operating building pipelines.
comprehensive performance advantages and coordinated consumption reduction drive, and the permeability of glass fiber reinforced is expected to increase rapidly. According to the data from Owensconin , even in the United States, the current penetration rate of fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass fiberglass, which have advantages in quality, service life, cost, energy conservation and consumption reduction, are expected to increase rapidly.
3.3. Transportation: Lightweight drives incremental growth, rail transit has broad prospects
3.3.1. Passenger cars: dual-driven policy market, lightweight drives demand
my country's automobile market has recovered, and the development of new energy vehicles is accelerating. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2021, my country's automobile sales reached 26.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, ending the decline in the past three years; sales from January to July 2022 were 14.467 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, a narrower decline from the first half of the year, of which domestic automobile sales in July were 2.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 reached 3.521 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, and the sales from January to July 2022 were 3.185 million, a year-on-year increase of 117.5%. Overall, automobile sales have ushered in a recovery, new energy vehicle sales have also entered a period of rapid growth, and the overall prosperity of the industry is rising.
glass fiber reinforced plastic has obvious effects in reducing weight and cost, and can replace aluminum-magnesium alloys and steel. Fiberglass is widely used in automobile and in-room facilities manufacturing. According to data from the China Economic Industry Research Institute, in 2020, glass fiber consumption in my country's transportation sector accounted for 16%, most of which were glass fiber reinforced plastics. Since glass fiber has the characteristics of light texture and high strength, on the premise of ensuring the safety of the vehicle, glass fiber reinforced plastic can be used in front-end modules, engine hoods, new energy vehicle battery protection boxes, composite leaf springs, instrument panels, bottom guards and other parts, which can effectively reduce the quality of the vehicle and reduce costs. According to Fang Kun's "Application of Long Fiber Reinforced Thermoplastic Plastics in Automotive Lightweight and Energy-saving and Emission Reduction", the relative cost of parts using glass fiber reinforced plastic is only 80% of titanium alloy steel parts and 40% of aluminum-magnesium alloy alloys, while the weight is 25%-35% lower than that of titanium alloy steel parts of the same volume.
Car lightweight is an important way to improve the car's range and reduce fuel consumption. According to the "Technical Route Analysis of Lightweight Design of Automobile", in terms of fuel vehicles, the weight of the whole vehicle is reduced by 10%, and the fuel efficiency of can be increased by 6%-8%. For every 1% reduction in car weight, the fuel consumption can be reduced by 0.7%; in terms of pure electric vehicles, the weight of the whole vehicle is reduced by 10kg, and the mileage can be increased by 2.5km. Driven by the policy of
, lightweight automobiles are expected to be accelerated. The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" organized and compiled by the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China Automobile Engineering Society proposes that by 2025, 2030 and 2035, the lightweight coefficient of fuel passenger vehicles needs to be reduced by 10%, 18% and 25% respectively, and the lightweight coefficient of pure electric passenger vehicles needs to be reduced by more than 15%, 25% and 35% respectively. Under the guidance of the roadmap, the process of lightweighting of automobiles is expected to accelerate. Automobile lightweighting has driven a significant increase in the permeability of glass fiber reinforced plastics. modified plastic is a plastic product with specific properties obtained by processing or transformation of resin through specific methods. Glass fiber reinforced plastic is a type of modified plastic. With the advancement of policy-driven collaborative technology, the use of glass fiber reinforced plastics in automobiles is expected to further deepen and continue to drive the demand for glass fibers.
3.3.2. Rail Transit: The market is growing steadily, with rich application scenarios
my country's rail transit equipment market size has grown steadily. In order to solve the traffic congestion in cities and environmental pollution and save travel time, my country is in a prosperous period of rail transit construction. From 2008 to 2020, my country's railway business mileage increased from 79,700 kilometers to 146,300 kilometers, and the high-speed rail business mileage increased from 00,700 kilometers to 37,900 kilometers, with an average annual compound growth rate of 5.2% and 40.0% respectively. my country has become the largest rail transit market in the world. From 2015 to 2021, the number of railway trucks in my country increased from 723,000 to 966,000, and the number of EMUs increased from 1883 standard group to 4012 standard group, with an average annual compound growth rate of 4.9% and 13.4% respectively. In addition to the increasing market brought by newly built rail transit equipment, a large number of rail transit equipment have entered the maintenance period. Coupled with the influence of factors such as technological renewal, the scale of my country's rail transit equipment market has steadily increased.
fiberglass has broad application prospects in the rail transit equipment market.In the field of rail transit equipment, glass fiber can be used in emergency evacuation platforms, cable racks, sound insulation barriers and other facilities, as well as high-speed train components such as front end of the vehicle, doors, seats, wall panels, bogie, driver's instrument frame, roof pantograph cover, battery box and other high-speed train components. Against the backdrop of the country's vigorous development of rail transit, glass fiber has broad market prospects in the field of rail transit equipment.
3.4. Wind power: Carbon neutrality coordinates cost reduction, large-scale blades promote growth
Under the guidance of the "dual carbon" policy, the wind power industry continues to be prosperous. Under the continuous advancement of global energy conservation and emission reduction and the guidance of my country's "dual carbon" goal, the wind power industry has developed rapidly since 2020. In 2020 and 2021, the global installed capacity of new wind power was 111.03GW and 93.6GW, respectively, an increase of 90.1% and 60.2% from the level in 2019, respectively. Among them, my country's newly added wind power installed capacity in 2020 and 2021 was 71.67GW and 45.57GW, respectively, an increase of 178.4% and 77.0% from the level in 2019, respectively.
The reduction in installation cost and kilowatt-hour cost provides the necessary conditions for the rapid development of the wind power industry. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)’s 2020 Renewable Energy Power Generation Cost Report, from 2010 to 2020, the global installed capacity costs of onshore wind and offshore wind power dropped from US$1,355/kw and from US$4,706/kw to US$3,185/kw, a decrease of 31.3% and 32.3% respectively; the global normalized kilowatt-hours of onshore wind and offshore wind level fell from US$0.089/kwh to US$0.039/kwh and from US$0.162/kwh to US$0.084/kwh, a decrease of 56.2% and 48.1% respectively. The significant reduction in installation costs and kilowatt-hours cost provides the necessary conditions for wind power to achieve parity in the grid and promotion. With the coordination of policy promotion, the global wind power industry will maintain a rapid growth trend in the future.
The rapid development of wind power has driven the increase in demand for glass fiber. According to the prospectus of Polymer Technology, glass fiber is mainly used in wind power blades, and the skin material is generally fiberglass fiberglass or carbon fiber composite materials. Because carbon fiber is currently costly and has a low possibility of parity, the mainstream is still glass fiber composite materials. Since glass fiber is mainly fan skin and main beam, it is positively correlated with blade length, wind power installed capacity and fan number. According to the interactive Q&A of China Material Technology, the amount of glass fiber per GW of wind power installed is about 10,000 tons. The increase in wind power installed capacity will continue to drive the increase in demand for glass fiber.
The large-scale fan blades further promote the growth of demand for glass fiber. The blade accounts for the highest proportion of fan parts costs, accounting for more than 23% of the raw material costs. The longer the blade diameter of a single wind turbine, the larger the area of the wind sweep, and the higher the power generation. According to Xu Yanpeng's "Investment Characteristics and Trends of Wind Power Projects in the Paid Era", taking the 3MW group as an example, if the blades are lengthened by 5m, the sweeping area can be increased by 0.81m2/kW, and the annual utilization hours can be increased by 208 hours, which is equivalent to a investment saving of 600 yuan/kilowatt. Therefore, the large-scale fan and the large-size components are the core driving forces for wind power installation cost reduction. According to statistics from the Wind Energy Professional Committee (CWEA) of the China Renewable Energy Society, from 2010 to 2020, the average wind wheel diameter of new wind turbines in my country increased from 78 meters to 136 meters. Since glass fiber materials have the advantages of lightweight and high strength, and their demand is positively correlated with the length of fan blades, the trend of large-scale fan blades may drive a significant increase in the demand for glass fibers.
3.5.PCB: The PCB market has grown steadily, driving demand for electronic yarn
printed circuit board market has grown steadily. Printed circuit boards (PCBs) are the upstream basic industry of my country's electronics industry and determine the competitiveness of my country's electronic products. According to the announcement of Shennan Circuit Company, China's PCB output value in 2020 was US$35.01 billion, and the market size was huge. According to downstream applications, communications, computers, automotive electronics and consumer electronics are the main applications, accounting for 30%, 26%, 15% and 13% respectively. In the long run, the promotion of "China Intelligent Manufacturing 2025" such as cloud computing, 5G infrastructure, and artificial intelligence will continue to expand the downstream application fields of PCB. 5G network construction and new energy vehicles are expected to become the main driving force for the continued growth of the PCB industry.
PCB The growth in market size has driven the increase in demand for electronic yarn.Electronic yarn is glass fiber with a diameter of less than 9 microns, with excellent electrical and mechanical properties, and is the basic material of copper clad plate. Copper laminate is a key raw material for PCB, and its demand is closely related to the development of the PCB industry. According to China Business Industry Research Institute, copper clad plate accounts for 30% of the raw material cost of PCB and is the most important raw material for preparing PCB. According to Zhiyan Consulting data, electronic yarn accounts for about 18% of the cost of copper clad plate in 2020, second only to electronic copper foil. With the steady growth of the PCB market, demand for electronic yarn is expected to continue to rise.
4. Trend: Downstream demand recovers, supply and demand maintain a tight balance
glass fiber industry is on the rise, and supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance. From 2019 to 2020, the growth of glass fiber pool kiln yarn production capacity slowed down, mainly because the rapid production capacity of the glass fiber industry caused the downward trend in the industry, which caused the unit price of product sales, and combined with the weak demand under the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. With the global economy recovering in 2021, new energy vehicles and wind power in downstream industries are booming, and the glass fiber economy has rebounded. According to the China Fiberglass Industry Association, the production capacity of my country's pool kiln yarn in 2021 will be 6.1 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will exceed 95%. The previous supply shock has been basically digested and it is expected to maintain a tight equilibrium in the future. In terms of inventory, taking China's Giant Stone as an example, the inventory turnover days of China's Giant Stone in 2021 were 63 days, and in the first half of 2022, it was 62 days, which overall continued to decline, reflecting the recovery of demand for glass fiber and the improvement of the industry's prosperity.
5. Analysis of key enterprises
5.1. China Jushi
China Jushi is the leader in the domestic fiberglass industry, with a global production base. The company has comprehensive products, with more than 100 major categories and nearly 1,000 specifications, mainly including alkali-free glass fiber, twistless roving, chopped felt, electronic cloth, etc. The company has achieved a global production capacity layout and has five production bases: Tongxiang, Zhejiang, Jiujiang, Jiangxi, Chengdu, Sichuan, Suez, Egypt, and South Carolina, the United States. Calculated by capacity, China's Giant Stone accounted for 23% of the global fiberglass market in 2020, making it the absolute leader in the fiberglass industry. In terms of performance, in 2021, the company achieved operating income of 19.707 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.92%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149.51%. In the first half of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 11.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.13%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.96%.
The company's production capacity has steadily expanded, bringing new room for growth. As of the end of 2021, the company's design production capacity of various glass fiber products has reached 2.356 million tons/year, with an average annual compound growth rate from 2017 to 2021 being 15.4%. In addition, the company's current construction and planned production capacity includes 750,000 tons of alkali-free yarn, 60,000 tons of electronic yarn and 600 million meters of electronic cloth, and is expected to be gradually put into production from 2022 to 2024. The company's capacity utilization rate and production and sales rate have both remained above 95% all year round, and the new production capacity will bring new room for growth to the company. The company continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and lay out upstream raw materials. The company continues to optimize its production efficiency. From 2017 to 2021, the company's per capita production capacity increased from 136.7 tons/year/person to 176.8 tons/year/person, and the production efficiency has been greatly improved. In addition, the company is in the upstream layout. In 2012, it acquired Leishi Micropowder and invested in the construction of a new production capacity of 600,000 tons of wax stone powder in 2016, fully meeting the increase in demand for wax stone by the company's capacity expansion.
5.2. Shandong glass fiber
Shandong glass fiber is a rising star in the domestic glass fiber industry. Shandong Fiberglass was established in 2008 and is controlled by the Shandong Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Its controlling stake is concentrated and it is a rising star in domestic glass fiber enterprises. Based in coastal areas with developed transportation, the company continues to improve its industrial chain, lay out the raw materials and energy industries, and the production costs continue to decline. In terms of performance, the company achieved operating income of 2.759 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 37.72%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 546 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 216.78%. In the first half of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 1.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 348 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.27%.
The company's production capacity is expanding rapidly. Currently, the company mainly sells two glass fiber products, alkali-free yarn and C-CR special fiber. As of the end of 2021, the company's glass fiber yarn design capacity is 410,000 tons, and the fabric annual production capacity is about 100 million square meters. Among them, the C-CR special fiber production capacity is 80,000 tons, and the alkali-free yarn design capacity is 330,000 tons.According to the company's strategic planning outline, by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the company's total designed production capacity of glass fiber and products will reach 1.15 million tons and 1.51 million tons respectively. According to this plan, from 2021 to 2025, the company's annual compound growth rate of production capacity will reach 29.4%, and the expansion speed will be significantly improved. The company plans international cooperation to improve its technical strength. From 2017 to 2021, the company's R&D expenses increased from RMB 48.57 million to RMB 97.35 million, with an average annual compound growth rate of 19.0%. The company cooperates with many foreign companies such as OC to continuously introduce advanced technologies while increasing R&D efforts and enhancing its own technological strength.
5.3. China Material Technology
China Material Technology's three main businesses have developed in a coordinated manner, and the net profit attributable to shareholders has grown rapidly. In 2016, the company acquired Taishan glass fiber, focusing on the three major tracks of special fiber, composite materials, and new energy materials, and vigorously developing three major industries: wind power blades, glass fibers and products, and lithium battery separators. At the moment when the new energy and wind power industries are developing rapidly, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders maintains a rapid growth trend. In terms of performance, in 2021, the company achieved operating income of 20.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.58%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.40%. In the first half of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 9.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.99%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.871 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.33%.
As of the first half of 2022, the company had a glass fiber production capacity of about 1.2 million tons, and the current construction and planned glass fiber production capacity is 420,000 tons. As of the first half of 2022, China National Materials Technology's annual production capacity of glass fiber was about 1.2 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 10.7% from 2017 to 2021. The company's current construction and planning production lines include the Taishan Glass Fiber Zoucheng "6-to-12" alkali-free pool kiln wire drawing production line, the 60,000-ton high-strength high-mode glass fiber production line, and the Taiyuan annual production of 300,000-ton high-performance glass fiber intelligent manufacturing production line project.
Company fully utilizes the industrial synergy effect and continuously optimizes its product structure. The company established China National Materials Wind Power in 2007 and officially entered the wind power blade industry; began to cultivate lithium battery separator business since 2015; and officially acquired Taishan glass fiber in 2016, realizing the coordinated development of the glass fiber industry and wind power blades. Glass fiber is one of the main raw materials for wind power blades. The glass fiber used by the company to produce blades mainly comes from Taishan glass fiber. The price is stable and the supply chain is highly guaranteed. In addition, the high-mode glass fiber developed by Taishan glass fiber can be adapted to large-scale wind power blades, supporting the iterative upgrade of the company's wind power blade products. In 2021, the company's alkali-free glass fiber products, wind power blades and lithium battery separators' revenues were RMB 8.752, RMB 6.976 and RMB 576 million, respectively, accounting for 40.7%, 32.5% and 5.2% respectively. The average annual compound growth rate from 2017 to 2021 was RMB 10.85%, RMB 18.89% and RMB 81.55%, respectively. The company's overall revenue structure is relatively balanced, and the proportion of lithium battery business has increased.
5.4. Changhai Co., Ltd.
Changhai Co., Ltd. deeply cultivates fiberglass products. The company has a complete industrial chain layout and continues to promote capacity expansion. Unlike other leading companies, Changhai Co., Ltd. has been deeply engaged in glass fiber products rather than glass fiber yarns, including chopped felts, wet thin felts, composite partitions, coated felts, etc., creating its own unique advantages. In terms of performance, in 2021, the company achieved operating income of 2.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.71%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 572 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.46%. In the first half of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 1.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.42%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 428 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.99%.
Company's glass fiber production capacity has steadily expanded. According to the company's debt tracking and rating report, as of the end of March 2022, the company's annual production capacity of glass fiber yarn reached 300,000 tons, and the company's five thin felt production lines completed the second in 2021, promoting the company's annual production capacity of thin felt by 60 million square meters. In addition, the company's 600,000-ton high-performance fiberglass intelligent manufacturing base project is still under approval. In addition, its subsidiary Tianma Group plans to upgrade and transform a glass fiber pool kiln drawing production line with an annual output of 30,000 tons into a high-end high-performance fiberglass and special fabric production line with an annual output of 80,000 tons. After the thin felt and base project are completed, the company's annual production capacity of glass fiber can reach 950,000 tons. The company has a full industrial chain and is operating stably.Resin is an important raw material for glass fiber composites. The company itself has a vertical industrial chain mainly composed of glass fiber yarn, glass fiber products and glass fiber composites. It also conducts research and development, production and sales of resins through Tianma Group, layouts the horizontal industrial chain, and smooths cyclical fluctuations through the integration of the industrial chain, and has relatively stable operations.
(This article is for reference only and does not represent any of our investment advice. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original text of the report.)
Selected report source: [Future Think Tank] An error occurred in system
