Gasoline and food costs remain high. The US CPI consumer data in June unexpectedly exceeded expectations and "exploded" with a breakthrough, breaking through 9%, setting a new high of more than 40 years since December 1981. The market expects that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike in July 1 exceeded 75 basis points to rise. US stocks opened sharply, US Treasury yields rose, but short-term yields rose even sharper, indicating that the yield curve of the recession deepened, the US dollar hit another 20-year high, the euro fell below parity for the first time in nearly 20 years, and gold weakened sharply for nearly 20 US dollars and pressed the $1,710 mark.
swap market is fully priced into the Fed's total rate hike by 150 basis points in July and September, of which the possibility of a larger rate hike by 100 basis points in July rose to 3/4. The debate over whether the Fed should raise interest rates more radically has intensified, partly because the actions of many developed economies have become more hawkish. New Zealand raised interest rates by 50 basis points for the third consecutive month, opening its most radical tightening cycle ever. The Bank of Canada was the first to raise interest rates by 100 basis points beyond expectations to 2.5%, the largest single rate hike since 1998.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Raphael Bostic, who has always been known for his dovishness, said today that the Federal Reserve's policy actions "everything is possible". This remark has caused the market to believe that the possibility of a 100 basis point interest rate hike in July increased, and U.S. stocks fell intraday. US Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin later said that there is a risk of recession in the near future, and the overall and core inflation rates are too high.
The Fed's Beige Book outlook is pessimistic, saying that since mid-May, prices have risen sharply in all regions, and some regions have seen signs of slowing demand, and their outlook for future U.S. GDP growth is mostly negative. Five local Feds point out concerns about increased risk of recession. Price pressure is expected to continue until the end of the year, and demand may continue to weaken in the next 6-12 months.
European and American economic data are mixed. Due to higher mortgage loan interest rates and deteriorating economic outlook, the U.S. housing market continued to cool down. Last week, the number of housing mortgage loan applications fell by 4% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year, and mortgage loan refinancing applications fell by 80% year-on-year. Britain's GDP grew by 0.5% in May, and economists were expected to grow zero month-on-month, but the consumer services industry fell due to soaring inflation.
International Monetary Fund IMF President warned that if the natural gas from Russia is further interrupted, it may trigger a European economic recession. The outlook for the global economic remains extremely uncertain. The IMF is preparing to lower its global outlook for this year and next two years, which will be the third cut this year, and the possibility of a recession next year cannot be ruled out. In April, the institution lowered its global GDP growth rate by nearly one percentage point this year.
Fed rate hike 100 basis points expected to surge, US stocks volatility turned to decline, technology and chips turned to rise in the afternoon, China outperformed
html on Wednesday, July 13, U.S. inflation exceeded expectations and raised expectations for the Fed's aggressive rate hike, which also deepened the panic that the economy was about to fall into recession. Nasdaq opened at the opening and fell by 1.85% or more than 200 points, S&P 500 fell by 1%, the Dow Jones fell by 0.77% or nearly 240 points, and airline stocks and technology stocks ranked the top in the decline. Tesla fell by more than 3%, while Nvidia fell by more than 3%. At the beginning of the session, industry ETFs generally fell, aviation ETFs fell by more than 2%, and online stocks, technology stocks, optional consumer and banking ETFs fell by more than 1%.S&P The market decline rapidly expanded to 1.6% and fell below the 3800-point integer at one point. All sectors except energy fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 466 points or fell by 1.5%, the Nasdaq fell by more than 233 points or fell by 2.1%, approaching the 11,000 mark. The Nasdaq 100 fell by 246 points or fell by 2.1%, ranking among major stock indexes. Russell 2000 small-cap stock fell by 1.6% and fell by 1700 points.
However, nearly 90 minutes after opening, the Nasdaq and , the majority of technology stocks, , the Nasdaq 100 index, took the lead in turning the rise, with the constituent stock JD.com rising about 4.0%, NetEase rising more than 3.5%, Tesla rising more than 3.1%, and Pinduoduo also rising 1.8%. At midday, the S&P market also turned higher, while the Dow continued to decline throughout the day. At the end of , S&P, Nasdaq and Russell small-cap stocks all fluctuated between ups and downs, and eventually closed down collectively.
S&P, Dow Jones and Russell small-cap stocks all fell for four consecutive days, approaching the decline of all gains since June 30.Both the Nasdaq Index and the Nasdaq Index 100 fell for three consecutive days, both retracing the gains since July 5:
S&P 500 closed down 17.02 points, or 0.45%, at 3,801.78 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 208.54 points, or 0.67%, to 30,772.79 points. The Nasdaq closed down 17.15 points, down 0.15%, to 11,247.58 points. The Nasdaq 100 index closed down 0.14%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index closed down 0.1%.
Nasdaq was the first to turn higher, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 100 basis points in July rose, and the possibility of rising US stocks finally lowered.
Most celebrity technology stocks stopped falling and turned higher in the afternoon. " Yuan Universe " Meta fell more than 2% and turned 1% up, closing slightly, Amazon and Netflix both fell nearly 3% and closed up more than 1%, Apple and Microsoft both fell more than 2% and closed down to 0.3%, Google parent company Alphabet fell more than 2%, and Tesla fell nearly 2% after falling 3.4%.
news, after Microsoft announced layoffs, Google slowed down its recruitment in the second half of the year. Citi lowered Apple's target price from $200 to $175, saying that consumers are cautious, macroeconomic concerns, and supply chain bottlenecks continue to exist are not conducive to stock prices in the short term. Media said that Apple began trial production of iPhone 14, and its initial sales will be higher than iPhone 13. Netflix chose Microsoft as an advertising-supported partner.
chip stocks rose. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2% and turned nearly 1%. The daily low once fell by 2,500 points, rising for two consecutive days and recovered more than half of the decline since last Friday. Intel fell 1.6%, closed flat, AMD rose more than 1%, Nvidia fell 4%, and then turned 0.5%, and Qualcomm and TSMC US stocks rose more than 2%. Tianfeng International Guo Mingchi said that TSMC will exclusively supply Qualcomm 5G flagship chip, and Samsung was abandoned.
After the US stock market, the US Food and Drug Administration FDA authorized Novavax's adult new crown vaccine to be put into use. This is the first time that the United States has approved a new crown vaccination in more than a year, but Novavax fell by more than 2% after the market.
Other stocks with large changes include:
Twitter rose nearly 8%, rising for two consecutive days, close to recovering the decline since last Friday. The company sued Musk for violating the acquisition agreement in the US Delaware court, seeking the court to issue an order to force it to complete the acquisition if a few pending conditions are met. The media also found that in the three months after Musk proposed to acquire Twitter, Tesla underperformed the market and its market value shrank by more than $330 billion.
Investors pay attention to the second quarter financial report season of US stocks that started this week, to take advantage of the health of US companies under high inflation. Delta, the first major US airline to release its financial report, once fell nearly 9%. Its revenue exceeded expectations in the second quarter but its profitability was poor. It is expected that the high operating costs and fuel prices that squeeze profit margins will continue until the end of the year. Airlines stocks fell together, United once fell nearly 5%, and American Airlines fell more than 7%.
Although US Treasury yields jumped for each period, under the cloud of recession, , Bank of America stocks related to the economic cycle, fell generally, and both closed down about 1%. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley , which will release financial reports this week, fell by more than 2%, while Citigroup and Wells Fargo fell by 3% at one point.
US personal styling service online provider Stitch Fix once rose by more than 23%. It is reported that Benchmark Capital partner Bill Gurley purchased another 1 million shares, doubling the overall holdings, with an average payment price of US$5.43, a premium of 5.6% from yesterday's closing.
interactive software technology provider Unity Software fell more than 17%, lowering its full-year revenue guidance and announced an all-stock merger agreement with Israeli software publisher IronSource, which soared 47% to a two-month high.
Popular Chinese outperformed the market for two consecutive days:
Chinese ETF KWEB rose 0.8%, CQQQ fell slightly, Nasdaq Jinlong China Index (HXC) rose 1.3%, constituent stocks Ranshi Medical rose more than 10%, pet smart supplies Doniss rose 9.8%, Qudian rose more than 7%, Ctrip rose more than 6%, Yibang International fell more than 8%, Financial One Account fell more than 10%, and Yixian E-commerce fell 27% to lead the decline.
Nasdaq 100 Among the four constituent stocks of , JD.com rose 2.6%, Baidu rose 1.2%, NetEase rose 3.4%, and Pinduoduo rose 0.3%.Among other stocks, New Oriental and Luckin Coffee rose nearly 5%, Alibaba fell 0.1%, Tencent ADR fell 1.3%, Bilibili rose 1.5%, NIO , Xiaopeng and Ideal Auto rose 1%-3%. Nano Labs' U.S. IPO fell nearly 27% the next day.
European stocks fell, the Pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down 1.01%, giving up all the gains since last Thursday, almost all sectors and countries' valuations fell, the FTSE Pan-European Outstanding 300 Index and the Eurozone Stoxx 50 Index also fell about 1%. During the session, the Stoxx 50 Index and the German and French stock index both expanded to about 2%. At the close of the market, German stocks fell more than 1%, Italian stocks fell nearly 1%, and Russian stock index fell about 2%.
Bank of America joins Wells Fargo Investment Research Institute and Nomura Securities 's sluggish camp, predicting a "moderate recession" in the United States this year, inflation is hindering consumer spending, and the economic momentum may slow down faster than expected. Deutsche Bank believes that the recession will start in mid-2023. Overall, the rise in U.S. inflation exceeds expectations has exacerbated the market's bet on the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes and also enhanced the possibility of a recession. The concerns about the recession of
have caused the US long-term bond yield to fall, the 2-year/30-year curve is inverted, and the 2-year/10-year inversion is 22-year and the deepest
After the US CPI data triggered the expectations of hawkish interest rate hikes, the yields of government bonds in major European and American countries jumped across the board. The inversion of the two-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has expanded to nearly 22 basis points, the highest since 2000, highlighting market concerns about recession.
10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by more than 11 basis points during the day, rising by 3.07%, but the U.S. stocks fell again during the session and fell again at 3%. The U.S. stocks were less than 2.90% at the end of the session, and the yield this week has fallen for three consecutive days. The yield on 30-year long-term bonds once rose by more than 9 basis points, and the daily high rose above 3.23%. The U.S. stock market fell again during the session and fell below 3.08%, giving up more than half of the gains since last Wednesday.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, maintained its upward trend during the session of the U.S. stock market, with a maximum increase of more than 17 basis points in the day, a daily high of 3.21%, and the U.S. stock market maintained an 8 basis points in the afternoon and traded 3.13%, which also formed an inverse with the 30-year yield curve. The five-year yield rose nearly 14 basis points to 3.15%, and the US stock market also fell during the session and pressed the 3% mark, continuing to inverse with the two-year yield.
10-year German bond yield once rose 4 basis points to 1.17%, two-year German bond yield once jumped 11 basis points to 0.46%, 10-year Italian government bond yield rose 8 basis points to 3.28%, and the Italian/DK bond spread remained above 200 basis points.
analysis said that the euro fell below parity against the US dollar for the first time in 20 years, bringing greater upward pressure on euro zone inflation, raising euro zone bond yields, and ending on a sharp decline for two consecutive days.
At the same time, after the hawkish interest rate hike exceeds expectations, the yield of Canadian short-term Treasury bond jumped by more than 18 basis points, the inverted margin of the two-year/10-year bond hike yield curve deepened to 14.5 basis points, and the Canadian stock index fell by more than 1%.
Oil prices stopped falling for two consecutive days and rebounded more than 4 US dollars during the day, Berry oil rose to 100 US dollars during the session, and British natural gas jumped 23% for a time
The spot market is still tight, international oil prices turned up, stopped falling for two consecutive days, rebounding from a three-month low. WTI August crude oil futures closed up $0.46, or 0.48%, at $96.30 per barrel. Brent's September crude oil futures closed up $0.08, or 0.08%, at $99.57 per barrel. NYMEX US Natural Gas Futures closed up 8.5%, and rose more than 10% during the session.
US oil WTI fell more than $2 overnight or fell 2.3%, once losing to $94. US stocks turned up during the session, and rose by a high of $2.11 or 2.2% during the day, trying to push $98. International Brent once fell by more than $1 or fell by 1.2%, and the daily low was close to $98. After the US stock market turned up during the session, it once returned to above the $100 mark, and rebounded by about $2 or rose by more than 1.5%.
In the week of July 8, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by more than 3.2 million barrels, a slight decline beyond expectations, but lower than the previous value of more than 8.2 million barrels. Inventories of refined oil such as gasoline and refined oil have increased, surpassing the previous value.The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that U.S. crude oil inventories hit a record high since December last year, and gasoline inventories increased by the largest since January this year; gasoline demand fell by 1.36 million barrels per day, the largest drop since December last year; overall oil inventories increased by 22 million barrels, the largest single-week increase since April 2020.
analysis pointed out that although the EIA oil storage data is generally not conducive to oil prices, the spot market supply remains tight, which helps to support oil prices. Oil also rebounded due to oversold and the dollar index weakening in the US stock market.
It is worth noting that this week's latest monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA are warning that demand for fuel oil is weakening, especially among the world's largest economies. The IEA therefore expects that the crude oil market supply crisis has shown initial signs of easing.
As Russia's natural gas exports to Europe face a crisis of full supply cutoff, European natural gas futures fluctuated sharply this week and closed up collectively on Wednesday. ICE UK natural gas futures rose 10.5%, and in the early trading of the European market, it rose above 300p or nearly 23%. European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures and German electricity prices rose by more than 3% in the late trading of the European market in the next month. The European Energy Exchange's electricity price hits a new high in the next year.
USD hit a 6-year high this week, and the profit settlement caused the intraday decline. The euro fell below par for the first time in 6 years
A basket of USD index DXY, which measures the USD against the six major currencies, turned down during the session and fell at the 108 mark. The US CPI data hit 108.58 after the release of the USD data, hitting a record high in the past two decades since October 2002; the Bloomberg USD index also fell 0.4% to hit a new daily low. Analysts said this is related to the profit settlement after the dollar jumped.
Euro against the US dollar also returned to above parity, and it fell below parity against the US dollar for the first time since December 2002 after the release of CPI. The ECB says there is no specific exchange rate target, but will focus on the impact of exchange rates on inflation. The energy crisis and recession risk have caused the euro to fall nearly 12% against the dollar this year, and mainstream investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase have warned that the risk of Russia's cut off natural gas supply may cause the euro to fall to $0.90.
Due to the economic growth exceeding expectations in May and the US dollar being sold, the pound also turned higher against the US dollar and once returned to 1.19, rebounding from the two-year low yesterday. However, the yen fell below 137 against the US dollar, hitting 137.87 on Wednesday, setting a new low in 24 years. The US dollar against the Canadian dollar once plunged more than 120 points in the short term, hitting a low of 1.2938, falling 0.6% during the day and falling below the 1.30 mark.
Most mainstream cryptocurrencies fell, and Bitcoin, the leader with the largest market value, stopped falling and rose by more than 1%, stopped falling for three consecutive days, trading at $19,700, and could not rise above the integer psychological threshold of $20,000. Ethereum, the second largest market capitalization, rose nearly 4%, but it could not rise above $1,100.
gold fell below 1710 USD and rose sharply and returned to 1730 USD, London aluminum 14 months lowest, London copper fell four consecutive times intraday 20 months lowest
COMEX August gold futures closed up $10.70, up 0.62%, at $1735.50/ounce, stopping for two consecutive days and returning to above $1730, rebounding from the more than nine-month low set at yesterday's closing, mainly benefiting from the US dollar's decline from a 20-year high.
Spot gold once fell nearly $19 compared with yesterday's closing price, and fell more than 1%, and fell below the integer of $1,710 during the session. The US stock market followed the sharp rebound of futures. The daily high rose above $1,745, and rose nearly $38 from the daily low, and turned more than 1% intraday. US stocks stood firm above $1,730 after the session.
Affected by concerns about economic slowdown, London base metals fell again:
, the "Doctor of Copper" known as the economic health indicator, LME copper futures once fell to the integer of $7,200 during the session, setting a 20-month lowest since November 2020, and narrowed significantly to 0.4% at the close, but fell for four consecutive days.
Lun Aluminum and Lun Zinc also fell for four consecutive days, Lun Aluminum fell 0.2% to set a 14-month low, Lun Zinc fell more than 2% and fell below the $3,000 integer. London nickel closed down more than $220, or fell 1%, while London tin also fell for two consecutive days, closing down $210, or fell 0.8%.
Denmark's Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said that U.S. inflation data above 9% may mean faster rate hikes and increased risk of recession. Since May 2020, speculators have had the most pessimism about COMEX copper futures.Citi expects copper prices to fall to $6,600 in the next 6 to 9 months, and we recommend increasing short positions in industrial base metals.
Malaysian palm oil futures plunged more than 8% on Wednesday, the lowest in more than a year due to weak exports and sluggish demand outlook. The Chicago Futures Exchange soybean oil contract also fell more than 1% after the U.S. government forecasts a decline in demand and increased production.
This article comes from Wall Street News, welcome to download the APP to view more
