Since last year, my country's real estate market has shown a continuous decline. Data shows that the average domestic housing price fell from 11,000 yuan/square meter in the first quarter to 9,500 yuan/square meter at the end of the year. In addition, among the 70 major large and medium-sized cities, the number of new houses fell by 70%, while the number of second-hand houses fell by 90%. The number of cities where housing prices fall far exceeds the number of rising.
In order to avoid major ups and downs in the short term, since the first half of this year, more than 70 cities have relaxed their regulation of the real estate market. In addition to abolishing the purchase and sales restrictions on the property market, local banks have also lowered the down payment ratio of home buyers and mortgage interest rates, and some cities have also provided housing subsidies to home buyers.
Many people are confused about this. What will happen to the real estate market in the future? Will the "depreciation wave" continue to usher in? In this regard, some industry insiders predict that the "depreciation wave" of the property market will continue in the future, and it may exceed imagination this year and next two years. In this regard, we believe that this mainly has the following factors to analyze:
First of all, the supply and demand gap in the real estate market is widening. According to data, 96% of families in my country own one house, and the proportion of families with more than two houses reaches 41.5%. The current real estate market is becoming saturated. At the same time, according to data from authoritative institutions, the inventory volume in 100 key cities reached 610 million square meters, and the inventory pressure was very obvious. Therefore, in the case of oversupply in the real estate market, housing prices have seen a steady decline this year, which is a major trend.
Furthermore, domestic housing prices have risen for more than 20 years and there has been no decent adjustments. And now once a trend is adjusted, it will be difficult to reverse. In addition, the previous real estate regulation effects in various places are gradually being exerted. According to data, in 2021 alone, the number of real estate regulation in various parts of China was as high as 651 times, with a year-on-year increase of as high as 33%. The pressure on downward housing prices this year is still relatively high.
Again, since 2021, domestic housing prices have shown a downward trend. By 2022, the epidemic situation in various places has been repeated, and all walks of life are in a state of recession, and business is getting worse and worse, which has led to a decrease in people's expectations for future income. Therefore, many people who originally wanted to buy a house have now canceled their plans to buy a house and are in a cautious state of waiting and watching.
Finally, real estate tax is getting closer and closer to us. At the high-level meeting in October last year, it was finally clear that the property tax will be expanded, and more cities will join the pilot of real estate tax in the future. The imposition of property tax will increase the cost of real estate holding. Therefore, more people who hoard a large amount of property will sell their properties in their names this year and next two years. Under this situation, there will be a wave of selling in the real estate market, housing prices will continue to fall, and real estate transactions will continue to be sluggish.
It is under the influence of the above four factors that more cities may experience a "depreciation wave" this year and next two years, and the future trend of housing prices will also show a steady decline, and the transaction volume of real estate will further shrink. Therefore, we recommend that you do not buy a house in the second half of this year. After the speculative demand for housing purchases exits, the real estate bubble is squeezed out, and housing prices gradually return to their living attributes, it is not too late to choose to buy a house.
