June 20th Today’s quotation
Yangtze River colored
1# Copper: 68870 yuan/ton , down 1250 yuan/ton
Copper premium and discount: 390, -10 yuan/ton
A00 aluminum : 19730 yuan/ton, down 190 Yuan/ton
aluminum rise and discount: 35, 15 yuan/ton
Nanchu East China
cathode copper : 68760 yuan/ton, down 1 230 yuan/ton
aluminum ingot for remelting in Wuxi: 19700 yuan/ton, 210 yuan /ton
Nanchu South China
cathode copper: 68520 yuan/ton, 1240 yuan/ton
aluminum ingot for remelting: 19750 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton
6-20 Non-ferrous news
1Industry information
1 According to SMM statistics, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 785,000 tons on June 16, 40,000 tons were destocked compared with Monday, and 68,000 tons were destocked compared with last Thursday. The main areas for destocking are still Wuxi and Foshan. SMM learned that the continuous destocking of inventories has not boosted consumer confidence in the aluminum plate, strip and foil market, and companies generally believe that consumption has not yet recovered.
2. Last Friday, the final annual CPI rate in the Eurozone in May was recorded at 8.1%, continuing to hit a new record high.
3. Bloomberg reported on June 17 that the oil production agreement launched by OPEC+ at the beginning of the new crown epidemic is nearing completion. OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo said that 9.7 million barrels per day of oil production capacity will return to the market before August.
4. International oil prices fell sharply last week. On June 17, WTI crude oil fell from US$116.5/barrel to a minimum of US$106.4/barrel, and closed at US$108.88/barrel, a decrease of 6.99%.
5. National Development and Reform Commission: CPI will continue to operate within a reasonable range and can achieve the annual target of 3%.
6. On the 16th, the National Energy Administration released national power industry statistics. The data showed that from January to May, the country's major power generation companies completed investment of 147 billion yuan in power supply projects, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Specifically, solar power generation was 40.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 248.7%. The investment in power grid projects was 126.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%.
7. The Chilean government plans to promote tax reform at the end of the month, which may affect the global copper and lithium supply pattern.
8. As of Friday, June 17, SMM copper inventories in mainstream areas across the country decreased by 5,800 tons from Monday to 109,900 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons from last Friday, ending two consecutive increases and falling again.
9. This week, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 12,500 tons from the previous month to 270,300 tons. Warehouse receipts canceled by LME Asian warehouses in early June (mainly domestic brands) arrived in China this week.
10. The monthly rate of U.S. industrial output in May recorded 0.2%, the lowest since December 2021.
11. This week (6.11-6.17), the operating rate of refined copper rods rebounded by 7.88 percentage points. The main reason is that the sharp drop in copper prices during the week increased the willingness of downstream replenishment. There was a significant increase in orders at the end of the week, and the inventory of finished products of refined copper rod companies decreased.
2 spot information
1. html On June 17, the average spot price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum was 19,910 yuan/ton, down 250; flat water.The fluctuation of spot premium in Wuxi, East China is small, and basically maintains a small premium of 10 yuan/ton or flat; however, the spot premium in Gongyi area of Central Plains has skyrocketed, and market traders responded that aluminum prices continue to fall, and there is currently a small amount of aluminum ingots available for circulation in the market. , the high water price was quoted as high as +300 yuan/ton, but except for some downstream who just need to purchase and stock up, the attitude of the downstream in the market is weak. The current price difference between Wuxi and Gongyi is about 300 yuan/ton, and the freight is about 240-260 yuan/ton. There is still a regional price difference of 40-60 yuan/ton for cargo transshipment, but there is currently no active pickup in the market. Goods and transaction performance, and downstream companies are also more cautious in purchasing goods under the current price. The trading volume in the South China spot market was average, with a small amount of premium being the main transaction. The SMM Foshan aluminum price maintained a premium of 55 yuan/ton to the 07 contract. During the second trading period, the trend of Shanghai aluminum was weak, and the holders reduced prices for shipments. The current factory inventory is still acceptable. Under the circumstances, buying interest is general, and market transactions are concentrated on the Internet, with the price premium of 50 yuan/ton and the discount expanded to about 100 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices continue to be under pressure. Amid the pessimism, it is difficult to achieve large-scale transactions in the spot market. Panic shipments by holders may cause spot premiums in South China to fall.
2. The market recovered the overnight decline on the first day after the month change, and the stock holders clung to the premium and there was a slight stalemate in supply and demand. On June 16, SMM's SMM1# electrolytic copper spot price for that month's contract was quoted at a premium of 260 to 300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The transaction price of Pingshui copper is 71,200-71,330 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Shengshui copper is 71,210-71,350 yuan/ton. On the first day after the month change, traders were still looking for good opportunities to replenish goods, aiming to suppress premiums. However, cargo holders tightened their grip on prices and temporarily refused to take the initiative to adjust prices. The supply of goods flowing out for cash exchange was limited, and supply and demand were obviously in a stalemate. However, the Shanghai-London ratio has been revised up to around 7.65 recently, and there are more opportunities to open the profit window for imports, and there are more opportunities for importers to price . There will be an outflow of delivery goods in the future. The spot circulation will not continue to be tight, and it may be difficult for cargo holders to continue. Quite the price.
3 Market analysis
Overseas substantial interest rate hikes , aluminum prices fell
On June 17, Shanghai Aluminum's main 07 contract closed down 1% in day trading and 1.04% in night trading; LME closed down 0.73%. On June 17, LME aluminum inventories decreased by 3,700 tons to 407,875 tons, a new low in 21 years. Domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks on Thursday were 785,000 tons, 40,000 tons were destocked from Monday, and 68,000 tons were destocked from last Thursday; aluminum rod social stocks also decreased significantly, with 21,100 tons being destocked on a weekly basis. Recently, the domestic social inventory destocking data has low reference value, because there is a phenomenon of inventory transfer in East China and South China . The market has strong expectations for consumption recovery, but the actual growth rate of demand is slow. At the same time, many European and American countries have successively announced interest rate hikes to suppress aluminum prices. The decline in international oil prices may weaken cost support. It is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a volatile downward trend in the short term. You can go short on rallies. . In the medium to long term, pressure on the domestic supply side still exists. With the arrival of the seasonal off-season, there may be accumulation of inventory, and it is difficult for aluminum prices to rebound. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream consumption. Changes in international oil prices and changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine will continue.
The demand outlook is pessimistic, and copper prices continued their decline.
Lun Copper closed down 1.94% last Friday; the main 07 contract of Shanghai Copper closed down 1.13% in day trading and 1.55% in night trading. Last week, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point interest rate hike, the largest rate increase since 1994. Subsequently, many countries followed suit, and the world entered a wave of interest rate hikes, which may inhibit economic growth. The risk of recession in the United States has increased, the housing market continues to cool, new housing starts fell to the lowest in more than a year in May, and building permits representing future construction were the lowest since September last year. Last week, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod companies rebounded by 7.88 percentage points. As copper prices fell sharply, downstream willingness to replenish stocks increased, and refined copper rod companies' finished product inventories decreased. Copper consumption brought by infrastructure ports is expected to show a growth trend in the second half of the year, but it is still difficult to reverse the decline in copper consumption caused by real estate and related industries. Operational advice: continue to hold short orders.
