market performance
| September 29 | closing price | day rise and fall | five-day rise and fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| crude oil | 630.90 yuan/barrel | 2.90% | -3.25% |
within the day news
1, Everbright Futures: crude oil rebound drives energy-chemical varieties to strengthen
Everbright Futures: Foreign crude oil rebounds sharply, internal energy-chemical varieties rise simultaneously. The overnight market EIA released a report on crude oil inventories, which unexpectedly fell, while production fell by 100,000 barrels. This week, the U.S. hurricane hit the Gulf of Mexico, affecting crude oil supply and oil prices were supported. In addition, the US dollar fell at a high level, macro sentiment turned, the crude oil market recovered, and the short-term strengthening. Considering that the long holiday is approaching, the progress of the conflict between OPEC+ and Russia-Ukraine is the focus of the holiday, and light positions are operated before the holiday. There are many changes on the supply side. On the one hand, EIA's weekly inventory data unexpectedly declined, and output is also the first downward adjustment since August this year. The hurricane weather is expected to affect the oil production capacity of the US Gulf of Mexico. Supply declines in the short term. On the other hand, the OPEC meeting is approaching, and the market predicts that a larger-scale production cut plan will be implemented, and the market will trade in advance to reduce production. Geopolitical uncertainty is high, concerns about the supply of natural gas in Beixi exist, the tension in the European energy supply structure caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not yet been resolved, the current foreign gas prices have rebounded, and crude oil fluctuates simultaneously. The holidays focus on the progress of the conflict and whether Western countries' sanctions on Russia escalate.
2. Crude oil stops falling and rebounds, and the centralized maintenance of polyolefins is about to end.
In the early trading, energy-chemical commodities generally rose. Industrial Futures Research Report said that there are continuous new maintenance devices this week, 6 new PE sets and 3 new PP sets. However, the total capacity involved in maintenance is not much, and after the centralized maintenance from March to August, the maintenance intensity in the fourth quarter is expected to be only half or less in September or less. The possibility of monthly output hitting a new high in November or December is very high. This is also the main reason why the mainstream view does not look at polyolefins. Due to the tension in Russia and Ukraine and the positive impact of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, international oil prices rose by 4%, and domestic chemicals also stopped falling and rebounded, and there is still a possibility of continued rise before the holiday.
variety fundamentals
On September 23, domestic crude oil futures inventory recorded 4251,000.00 barrels, an increase of 2281,000.00 barrels from the previous trading day.
institutional view
Nanhua Futures: EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined, multiple positive factors drove a strong rebound in oil prices
USD index fell sharply, the US hurricane forced the Gulf of Mexico to cut production, EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined, and multiple positive factors pushed oil prices to rebound strongly. In November, WTI rose 3.65 to $82.15 per barrel, an increase of 4.6%; in November, Brent rose 3.05 to $89.32 per barrel, an increase of 3.5%. China's crude oil futures SC main force 2211 closed up 0.2 yuan/barrel to 613.1 yuan/barrel. From the news perspective, first, due to the impact of U.S. Hurricane Ian, U.S. offshore operators closed 11% of the Gulf of Mexico oil production capacity to boost oil prices. Second, the EIA report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 215,000 barrels last week, crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels to 12 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 1.106 million barrels per day to 4.646 million barrels per day. Last week, U.S. strategic oil reserves (SPR) inventories fell by 4.575 million barrels to 422.6 million barrels, which was a positive overall oil price. Third, three leaks occurred in the monitoring of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 natural gas pipelines, and strong underwater explosions were recorded in Sweden and Denmark. Restoring gas supply may be far away, exacerbating the market's concerns about instability in energy supply in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The current market trading logic is still a trade-off between the risk premium brought by Russia's reduction of energy supply and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and the slowdown in global economic growth. Yesterday, the US dollar index fell at a high level, supporting the rebound of oil prices. The OPEC meeting is approaching, and the market began to trade expectations of production cuts. Institutions began to predict that production may be reduced by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day, and the rebound trend will continue in the short term. However, the holiday is approaching, so it is recommended to spend the holiday lightly.
