The global demand for electric vehicles (EV) has attracted attention to the growing importance of charging stations in major countries over the past three years. Rystad Energy's research shows that public charging facilities are not currently limiting the rapid popularity of electric vehicles, especially in emerging markets. In countries such as Germany, France and the Netherlands, , , there is no direct link between the growth of charging infrastructure and electric vehicle sales. For consumers, what is more important is the problem of excessive fuel prices for internal combustion engines or excessively high prices for electric vehicles. However, Rystad Energy data also shows that charging pile deployment needs to be accelerated if the goals set by countries for electric vehicles are to be met, which are often an integral part of a net-zero emission reduction plan. The costs involved in achieving these goals, as well as new evidence on the importance of charging infrastructure (or lack thereof), put these commitments in question and whether investments can better turn to the greater barriers faced by electric vehicles.
Rystad Energy's research found that there is no obvious correlation between the use of electric vehicles and the wide availability of public DC charging stations. In the long run, as EV usage increases and becomes the default, the number of EVs at each charging point will need to decline. However, currently, in countries such as the Netherlands and Denmark, the use of electric vehicles is growing, even if there are more electric vehicles per charging station. This suggests that there are other potentially greater obstacles to popularizing electric vehicles.
consumers seem to be satisfied with charging at home, especially in places where the average driving time is short and there is no need to charge in public places. In fact, for those who used electric cars in the early days, home charging was the first major requirement, followed by workplace charging and then regular charging in public places. However, electricity prices at public charging stations tend to be higher than those at home charging, while incentives such as non-peak charging are also more difficult to implement.
The government will need to decide whether its commitment to public charging facilities is necessary and achievable, or whether there are viable alternatives. For example, , California was the first to propose the concept of shared private charging, that is, residents with private chargers can rent the chargers to the public and earn income from their use. Therefore, public charging stations owned by states and other companies account for only 45% of the total public charging infrastructure. This allows the government to focus on charging infrastructure funds along the highway, mainly DC fast charging solutions. Many countries currently support non-public charging, such as Germany, which has 350 million euros of separate funds to incentivize it. This decision has proven to be successful, as more than 75% of the country's charges are now in home or workplace.
Emergency evidence suggests that in the early stages of electric vehicle use, the availability of public charging stations (also often less used than private charging stations) does not affect the adoption of electric vehicles. Given the costs involved, it is best to recommend that the government focus on funding and incentives to lower the price tag and encourage private charging before advancing public charging programs.
China is at the forefront of charging station deployment
China leads in the absolute number of charging stations, and will reach 1.15 million charging stations by the end of 2021. The country has been deploying charging stations at an alarming rate, with 340,000 public charging stations installed last year alone. However, in 2021, public charging stations account for only about 44% of the total charging stations in the country, and the rest are private charging stations. In addition, of the 1.15 million public charging stations, about 41% are DC fast chargers, charging most electric vehicles 80% and taking 15 to 45 minutes, which is much faster than the regular AC charging station.
The United States became the second largest player in this field, although the number of charging stations at the end of last year was much lower, with only 107,219. Among them, only about 20% of the installations are DC charging piles. The country is steadily increasing installations every year, with nearly 40,000 units added by 2021. Under the bipartisan infrastructure law signed in November 2021, the U.S. government has designated $7.5 billion to build a more reliable charger network.Electrify America, the public charging network of the United States, is also particularly concerned with the deployment of fast charging solutions on highways to facilitate long-distance off-road travel.
European countries followed closely, and the Netherlands installed 91,738 charging piles by the end of 2021. France and Germany have much smaller charging stations, with 62,711 and 54,653 respectively, although the markets in both countries are much larger in terms of new electric vehicle sales. Having said that, by the end of 2021, more than 85% of European charging piles are AC charging piles. Therefore, the deployment of fast DC charging infrastructure in Europe is relatively slow. Nevertheless, Europe has begun to focus on the deployment of charging infrastructure, especially after EU (EU) member states announced that they would stop selling internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035.
Therefore, the annual growth rate of charging stations in many countries has been increasing in recent years. For example, the growth rates of the UK and the Netherlands are around 50% and 35% respectively, as shown in the figure below. However, the unemployment rate in Germany has been declining over the past few years. In 2018, the newly installed charging pile increased by 77% year-on-year, while the growth rate in 2021 was only 40%.
China's economic growth rate has also declined in the past three years. The year-on-year growth rate of charging points slowed down from 72% in 2019 to 42% in 2021. Instead of deploying charging infrastructure, the Chinese government has implemented a model that requires companies to deploy charging infrastructure first and then benefit from subsidies. This has led many companies to build their own networks and form partnerships with other automakers.
This chart (above) also summarizes the early stages of electric vehicle adoption in selected countries (even in a slightly more mature market). The report shows that there is no direct correlation between the growth of charging infrastructure and electric vehicle sales. Despite the low growth rate of deployment of public charging stations, China's electric vehicle sales have increased significantly over the past three years. On the other hand, the rapid deployment of the Dutch charging infrastructure has not led to the same growth in EV sales, but has slowed down. Norway is one of the few countries where electric vehicle sales and charging points are growing simultaneously. The lack of public charging stations has not slowed down the early popularity of electric vehicles
Since the current adoption of electric vehicles on the market is not very sensitive to public charging deployment, other factors need to be considered. For example, fuel prices for internal combustion engines or pricing for electric vehicles appear to have a greater impact on the adoption of electric vehicles. Furthermore, private charging (as seen and widely adopted in Norway) can support the lack of public charging infrastructure to a large extent, especially since the average trip does not require a large amount of public charging infrastructure. Meanwhile, according to data from the German government agency BWI, the average daily trip for Germans is about 39 kilometers. Generally speaking, home charging was the first major requirement for early adoption of electric vehicles, followed by workplace charging and then regular public charging. In addition, compared with home charging, electricity prices in public charging stations are often higher, and incentives such as off-peak charging are also more difficult to implement. However, driving distances in countries such as the United States vary widely between states every year, so fast charging stations need to be accelerated to support the use of electric vehicles outside urban centers.
The government's goal of improving charging infrastructure may vary greatly. For example, China hopes its charging infrastructure can support 20 million electric vehicles by 2025. On the other hand, the EU aims to build 1 million charging stations by 2025 and 3 million charging stations by 2030. Germany announced the goal of installing 1 million charging piles by 2030, which alone is equivalent to one-third of the EU's target. However, so far, Germany has lagged far behind its own government targets, with current capacity under 470% in the case of linear adoption throughout the year. This will put pressure on the government to double the construction of charging stations to achieve its goals. Germany already needs to double the number of charging piles installed to meet the government's 2030 target. The UK aims to reach 300,000 charging stations by 2030. As for current installations, the annual target for charging stations in the UK is slightly behind. However, based on the past 50% growth rate, the UK is expected to achieve its target by 2030.
Although governments have announced various goals for charging points and charging rates, they should focus on reducing pricing for electric vehicles through production incentives for automakers and subsidies to consumers, which will help break the barriers to the early popularity of electric vehicles. In addition, deploying DC fast charging stations on inter-state (provincial) and intra-state (provincial) expressways to facilitate long-distance travel and will reduce the load on the distribution network. Deploying more public charging devices in areas where home charging is impossible will also help the government better prepare for the goals it sets.
Source: https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/lack-of-public-charging-infrastructure-does-not-deter-ev-buyers-for-now
