Nowadays, many families only have one child, especially in cities, where they are basically only children. Many young couples say that having one child is enough, and raising a child is also very stressful. But this situation is abnormal in the past, because people in our country have always had the idea of "more children and more blessings", so most families have to have a few children, and the more children the better. It is normal for a family to have three or four children, and five or six children are also common, and some families even have seven or eight children. Nowadays, influenced by the idea of "late marriage and late childbirth", people have gradually accepted the idea of having fewer children, and many people are no longer willing to have more children.
But many people may not have thought that after just over twenty years, a series of problems in the past that people were worried about overpopulation were no longer a problem. On the contrary, we are now starting to worry about the population decrease again. According to national statistics, the number of newborns in my country has fallen for six consecutive times. From 2017 to 2022, the number of newborns in my country has experienced a cliff-like decline, and the number of births has dropped from 18.83 million in 2016 to 10.64 million in 2022, approaching the 10 million mark. And one thing to note is that 2016 was the year when the second-child birth policy was liberalized, so the number of newborns increased in 2016. If 2016 is not counted, then our number of newborns has been falling for more than ten years. However, it can also be seen that the effect of stimulating the birth of the second child is not obvious. After the newborn population has a brief rise, it soon began a cliff-like decline, and it did not curb the continued decline of the newborn population.
Faced with this situation, many experts and scholars have gradually realized that it is difficult to stimulate people's willingness to have children by just relaxing the birth policy. Now people are not because of family planning policy that does not have children, but because many people are really unwilling to have children. Therefore, after the second-child birth policy was liberalized, some families who were willing to have a second child soon had a second child. For those families who were unwilling to have a second child or a first child, the liberalization of the second-child birth policy had no effect on them at all. Regarding my country's population problems, many economists have made corresponding research. For example, the famous economist's report on China's Population Situation 2021: Aging, Less Birth, Non-marriage..." pointed out that my country's population currently shows five new characteristics and trends, aging, Less Birth, Non-marriage, Urban Agglomeration, and Class Stability:
, my country's population will fall into negative growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and will shrink sharply around 2050, and its share in the world will drop from the current 19% to 7% in 2100;
is very obvious. The population situation facing my country is very serious. Not only is the new population constantly decreasing, but the problem of population aging is also becoming more and more serious. More importantly, young people are unwilling to have children now, and they are even unwilling to get married. In this case, how to encourage people to have children is a very important issue in the future. After the
is invalid, the population alarm is "sounded"?
Judging from the number of newborns in the past six years, the second child birth has been invalid, and the population alarm in our country has also sounded. In order to solve this problem, the country has liberated the three-child birth policy in advance on May 31, 2021: In order to further optimize the birth policy, the policy of a couple having three children and supporting support measures will be implemented. In this policy, not only is the relaxation of three-child births, but also mentions "supporting support measures", which means that just liberalizing the three-child birth policy cannot encourage people to have children. Corresponding welfare policies should be introduced to encourage people to have children. Now the two major factors that hinder people's childbirth are high housing prices and the cost of raising children. If these two problems can be solved, many people will choose to have children, at least have to have one child.
First house price: The house is the location of residence and a symbol of home. In the city, the house is also linked to people's love, marriage, child education, etc., so the house directly affects people's marriage and having children. The biggest problem with houses is that housing prices are too high. According to statistics, in the past 20 years, the average housing prices have risen by as much as 4 times, and housing prices in many hot cities have risen by more than ten times or even dozens of times. Internationally, the reasonable average house price-to-income ratio is between 3-6, while the average house price-to-income ratio in the top 100 cities in my country has exceeded 9.2, and the average house price-to-income ratio in the top 70 cities is as high as 13.3.
Faced with such high housing prices, many young people who don’t have houses cannot afford to buy a house, which also directly affects their love and marriage. For those who buy a house, they also bear huge mortgage loans and are under great financial pressure, so it is also difficult to have money to get married and have children. In addition, for some families, having a second or third child may require a larger house, but it is very difficult to change a house with such a high housing price. Therefore, it can be seen that high housing prices affect people's willingness to have children at all stages.
Secondly, the cost of raising a child is too high: unlike in the past, the cost of raising a child is too high now, and children are called " Gold-swallowing Beast ". Nowadays parents want to give their children the best things, whether they are eaten or used, and they don’t want their children to lose at the starting line in terms of their children’s education. In addition, the medical expenses for children when they are young are also very high. Not only do they need to get various vaccines, but children are prone to illness, and they will be more than tens of thousands of yuan a year after they get sick.
According to statistics, from birth to college graduation, the expenditure of a child in first-tier cities exceeds 2 million yuan, and the expenditure of a child in new first-tier cities such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Nanjing and Hangzhou also exceeds 1.5 million yuan. It can be said that children's expenditures each month account for the majority of a family's expenditure. According to the "2020 Maternal and Child Consumption Insight Report", the monthly parenting expenses of "low-income families" and "middle-income families" account for 44% and 30% of the total family expenditure respectively. More importantly, this is still the expense of a child. If you have a second or third child, the expense of raising a child will increase exponentially, which many families cannot afford. Therefore, it is not that people are unwilling to have children, but that they cannot afford it.
is giving birth to a "new plan". Parents agree with
Therefore, if you want to solve the problem of people's unwillingness to have children, you must first solve the housing problem and the problem of raising children. Regarding this issue, demographer Liang Jianzhang once made a suggestion: families with more children should be given tax and fee subsidies, and a direct subsidy of 1 million yuan for a third child should be given through tax or mortgage interest. For example, exempting mortgage interest will greatly reduce people's home purchase costs, and the money saved can be used to raise children. For children's education, especially preschool education, the famous economist Ma Guangyuan recommends that preschool education be included in the compulsory education system as soon as possible, prolong childbirth leave, and at the same time, various expenses for giving birth and hospitalization are fully reimbursed.
In addition, the famous economist Ren Zeping also put forward his own suggestions on the issue of encouraging people to have children, mainly including the following 3 points:
. Implement differentiated personal income tax deduction and economic subsidy policies, covering from pregnancy health care to 18 years old or the end of academic education;
Many parents agree with the suggestions of the above experts and scholars, because these problems are indeed problems that they care about and have headaches. If these problems are solved, the pressure of getting married and having children will be reduced a lot.
First house price: The house is the location of residence and a symbol of home. In the city, the house is also linked to people's love, marriage, child education, etc., so the house directly affects people's marriage and having children. The biggest problem with houses is that housing prices are too high. According to statistics, in the past 20 years, the average housing prices have risen by as much as 4 times, and housing prices in many hot cities have risen by more than ten times or even dozens of times. Internationally, the reasonable average house price-to-income ratio is between 3-6, while the average house price-to-income ratio in the top 100 cities in my country has exceeded 9.2, and the average house price-to-income ratio in the top 70 cities is as high as 13.3.
Faced with such high housing prices, many young people who don’t have houses cannot afford to buy a house, which also directly affects their love and marriage. For those who buy a house, they also bear huge mortgage loans and are under great financial pressure, so it is also difficult to have money to get married and have children. In addition, for some families, having a second or third child may require a larger house, but it is very difficult to change a house with such a high housing price. Therefore, it can be seen that high housing prices affect people's willingness to have children at all stages.
Secondly, the cost of raising a child is too high: unlike in the past, the cost of raising a child is too high now, and children are called " Gold-swallowing Beast ". Nowadays parents want to give their children the best things, whether they are eaten or used, and they don’t want their children to lose at the starting line in terms of their children’s education. In addition, the medical expenses for children when they are young are also very high. Not only do they need to get various vaccines, but children are prone to illness, and they will be more than tens of thousands of yuan a year after they get sick.
According to statistics, from birth to college graduation, the expenditure of a child in first-tier cities exceeds 2 million yuan, and the expenditure of a child in new first-tier cities such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Nanjing and Hangzhou also exceeds 1.5 million yuan. It can be said that children's expenditures each month account for the majority of a family's expenditure. According to the "2020 Maternal and Child Consumption Insight Report", the monthly parenting expenses of "low-income families" and "middle-income families" account for 44% and 30% of the total family expenditure respectively. More importantly, this is still the expense of a child. If you have a second or third child, the expense of raising a child will increase exponentially, which many families cannot afford. Therefore, it is not that people are unwilling to have children, but that they cannot afford it.
is giving birth to a "new plan". Parents agree with
Therefore, if you want to solve the problem of people's unwillingness to have children, you must first solve the housing problem and the problem of raising children. Regarding this issue, demographer Liang Jianzhang once made a suggestion: families with more children should be given tax and fee subsidies, and a direct subsidy of 1 million yuan for a third child should be given through tax or mortgage interest. For example, exempting mortgage interest will greatly reduce people's home purchase costs, and the money saved can be used to raise children. For children's education, especially preschool education, the famous economist Ma Guangyuan recommends that preschool education be included in the compulsory education system as soon as possible, prolong childbirth leave, and at the same time, various expenses for giving birth and hospitalization are fully reimbursed.
In addition, the famous economist Ren Zeping also put forward his own suggestions on the issue of encouraging people to have children, mainly including the following 3 points:
. Implement differentiated personal income tax deduction and economic subsidy policies, covering from pregnancy health care to 18 years old or the end of academic education;
Many parents agree with the suggestions of the above experts and scholars, because these problems are indeed problems that they care about and have headaches. If these problems are solved, the pressure of getting married and having children will be reduced a lot.
