In the global chip foundry market, TSMC can be said to be a topic that has always been unavoidable. As a "business card" of Taiwan Province, TSMC's process technology, production capacity, yield and other aspects are at the top level in the industry. Today, when semiconductor chip is becoming more and more important, no one will question TSMC's future.
However, after the US revised the rules, TSMC was moved and not only "abandoned" Huawei , the second largest customer, but also cut more than 30 billion yuan in domestic chip orders. For the domestic market that has suffered from the outage of in Meixin , this is a step further.
But as the saying goes, "If you are poor, you think of change." Faced with the technological "encirclement and suppression" implemented by the United States, the domestic chip market did not choose to retreat and compromise, but changed the previous concept of " comprador " and faced difficulties. Starting from various key sub-sectors such as equipment materials, manufacturing technology, and production capacity yield, they created whatever they lack, and comprehensively promoted the development of the domestic chip industry.
Although we are unable to manufacture high-end chips due to the lack of EUV lithography machines, domestic chips have achieved remarkable results in the mature processes required by mainstream, such as 14nm process, 90nm lithography machine , domestic CUP, and RISC-V architecture system, etc.
Moreover, domestic foundry manufacturers such as SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor have expanded production many times in the past two years, with a total investment of about 170 billion yuan and have built new 12-inch wafer factories in many places.
According to public information, China has built about 190 billion chips in the first half of the year, while in the first nine months of this year, the number of chips imported by Chinese companies has dropped significantly by more than 61 billion compared with the same period last year. It is not difficult to see from this that domestic chips are constantly reducing their dependence on imports.
On the other hand, TSMC, which follows the pace of the United States, seems to be having a hard time today. None of the four changes that happened quietly were what TSMC wanted to see.
First of all, since 2022, high-end chips have experienced overcapacity as the smartphone market encounters a "cold winter". In contrast, mature process chips are still in short supply driven by the new energy vehicle market. Even TSMC Liu Deyin has publicly admitted that the new energy vehicle market will create greater opportunities for mature chips.
, TSMC has missed the best opportunity to expand its mature process because it has been focusing on advanced chip processes at nodes below 7nm in the past, and now it has missed the best opportunity to expand its mature process layout. In addition, the United States restricts its expansion of production capacity in the mainland market, TSMC is even more powerless.
Secondly, in the first three quarters of this year, many American chip giants such as Qualcomm , ADM, Nvidia have successively cut orders with TSMC due to poor sales, which has led to a significant decline in its utilization rate of advanced processes. In order to save operating costs, , they were even forced to shut down some EUV lithography machines.
According to industry insiders, the difficulties encountered by TSMC in the high-end chip market may not improve at least nine months later. You should know that in the fiercely competitive global OEM market, almost all manufacturers are racing against time, let alone 9 months. As strong as TSMC, it is estimated that they will have to "fall out".
In addition, before losing Huawei's orders, TSMC had always held absolute bargaining power, but now its large customers have become all American companies. Over-reliance on US chips has caused TSMC to be ineffective in speaking. For example, its plan to increase the price of OEM in 2023 was once rejected by US companies such as , Apple, , and Nvidia.
Moreover, after TSMC invested $12 billion to build a factory in the United States, it encountered many unfair treatment. The financial subsidies were not as good as those of US companies such as Intel , and the shipping licenses were no better than those of Korean companies such as Samsung , SK Hynix , and even the priority purchasing rights of EUV lithography machines were transferred to Intel by the United States.
It is not difficult to see from this that even if TSMC is humble, the United States does not take it seriously. It just wants to use it to boost the local chip industry in the United States. Once the value is squeezed out, TSMC may be kicked away.
Finally, from last year to the present, TSMC's market value has dropped from a peak of US$750 billion to US$350 billion, which is equivalent to losing a "Moutai company". Recently, its stock price has hit a new low, with a drop of 4.13%.
It is worth emphasizing that TSMC has also lowered its spending in 2022 by US$4 billion. TSMC's president Wei Zhejia recently sent an internal letter, probably to encourage employees to take more vacations. What it means to "company calls for employees to take leave" is self-evident.
It is also for this reason that some foreign media said that TSMC is losing its "future". However, some experts have given different views, believing that if TSMC Energy increases cooperation with mainland market companies, gradually reduces its dependence on US technology, and recognize who is the real "paternity" may be able to wipe out the current "haze".
What do you think TSMC will make the final decision? Welcome to leave a comment.
