Super variety HPV vaccine is the first to be launched in China, promoting high growth in future performance
The company is a platform enterprise with dual-wheel drive R&D, manufacturing and sales of vaccines and in vitro diagnostics. The market space of the core product bivalent HPV vaccine is expected to exceed 10 billion. It is the first domestic product to be launched. It was officially sold in in May 2020. has obvious first-mover advantages. Relying on the advantages of low cost and high protective efficacy, sales will rapidly grow to 333 million yuan in 2021. billion. In the future, with the expansion of production capacity, expansion of product indications, price upgrades, and expansion of overseas markets, it is expected to open up greater market space and will be the main performance driver in the future. The overall IVD business maintains steady growth, and chemiluminescence is growing rapidly, which is expected to drive the overall IVD business and increase the certainty of performance.
The global supply of HPV vaccines exceeds demand, and there is a large market space both at home and abroad.
WHO has proposed a goal of reaching 90% of HPV vaccination rates for women aged 9-15 years old by 2030. However, the current market penetration rate of my country's stock is less than 6%. In the future, as vaccination awareness increases and policies are promoted, the total existing market demand is expected to be 275 million, of which the second-price market space is expected to exceed 10 billion. There are currently only 4 suppliers in the world, and the market is in short supply. As the first domestic supplier, the company can release production capacity faster and is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. The penetration rate of among women aged 9-15 in low- and middle-income countries is only 9%. Overseas, only SII is in the late clinical stage. The competitive landscape is good. Overseas markets are expected to become potentially important markets for domestically produced HPV vaccines. The company's HPV vaccine has obtained PQ certification from WHO. Many Marketing approvals have been granted in various countries one after another, opening up prospects for overseas expansion.
focuses on the transformation of industry, research and academia, and varieties such as nine-valent HPV are expected to become new growth points in the future.
Strong R&D strength is the company's moat. In terms of internal R&D, the company has an R&D team of 800 people, and R&D expenses continue to grow rapidly; externally In terms of cooperation, the company has cooperated with the team of Professor Xia Ningshao of Xiamen University for more than 20 years. They have jointly built a national engineering center for in vitro diagnostic reagents and vaccines, and built the world's leading E. coli virus-like particle vaccine technology platform, with the ability to continue to develop With the ability to industrialize the results, the company’s pipeline under development is expected to be implemented one after another. The clinical phase III of the nine-valent HPV vaccine has been completed and is expected to be approved for marketing in the next three years. The chickenpox vaccine is about to be put into production. The nasal spray new crown vaccine has entered the overseas clinical phase III. The research pipeline is gradually enriched and is expected to become the future new growth point.
Profit Forecast, Valuation and Rating
As the company’s HPV vaccine batch release exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, we raised ’s 2022-24 revenue from 103/140/15.8 billion yuan to 118/146/17.6 billion yuan, corresponding to the growth rate They were 177%/30%/25% respectively. The net profit was raised from 39/55/6.6 billion yuan to 44/55/6.8 billion yuan. The corresponding growth rates were 117%/26%/23% respectively, and the EPS were 4.99 respectively. /6.28/7.71 yuan/share, with a three-year CAGR of 50%. The DCF absolute valuation method measured the company's per share value at 218.03 yuan, which is comparable to the company's average valuation of 40 times. In view of the fact that the company is the first domestic HPV vaccine supplier and has strong R&D capabilities, gave the company 45 times PE for 22 years, with a target price of 224.54 Yuan/share. Combining the absolute valuation method and the relative valuation method, we believe that the company's target price is 218.03-224.54 yuan/share and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk reminder
Competition is intensifying; penetration rate release, R&D and sales are not as expected; price decline risk
has been launched HPV vaccine comparison
Nine-valent HPV vaccine has entered the third phase of clinical trials and is expected to be launched within 3 years
There are many companies in the country Among the HPV preventive vaccines, 1 trivalent, 2 quadrivalent, 5 9-valent, and 1 11-valent have entered clinical phase III. Among the manufacturers of the nine-valent vaccine under development, the clinical trials of each company have been carried out at about the same time. Only Wantai Biotech has a marketed HPV vaccine product and a solid research foundation. It is expected that the company will have an advantage in clinical progress. We believe that the company 9 The vaccine is expected to be available within 3 years.
Domestic HPV vaccine clinical phase III and above are under development
Production capacity is increasing rapidly, and the nine-valent production capacity is expected to reach 60 million pieces/year in the future
In terms of production capacity, the current bivalent HPV vaccine production capacity can reach 30 million pieces/year, and is still expected to continue Tap your potential. In addition, the company has raised 1.1 billion yuan in additional capital to expand the nine-price production capacity. The construction is expected to be completed in 2025. After completion, the company will have 6 HPV nine-price VLP vaccine original solution production lines based on the E. coli technology platform, with designed production capacity Can be increased to 60 million pieces/year of .
Wantai Bio's HPV vaccine production capacity construction status
Valuation and investment rating
Relative valuation method
We estimate that the company's overall EPS in 2022-24 will be 4.99/6.28/7.71 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 31/25/20 times, refer to Regarding the valuation level of three domestic vaccine companies, the average PE of comparable companies in 2022 is 40 times. Considering that Wantai Biotech is the first domestic HPV vaccine supplier and has strong R&D capabilities, we give Wantai Biotech 45 times the PE for 22 years, and we get The target market value is 197.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 224.54 yuan/share .
Comparable company valuation comparison table
Absolute valuation method
Assuming that the risk-free interest rate Rf is the ten-year treasury bond yield, the risk-free interest rate Rf is the 5-year average return of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Index, and the calculated WACC is 7.07%. Assume that the company's growth rate in the next 3-10 years is 8.73%, and it will enter a stable growth period after ten years with a sustainable growth rate of 3%. We estimate the sustainable cash flow using discounted .
DCF valuation mainly assumes
According to the DCF model, the company's current value is 191.9 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 218.03 yuan/share, corresponding to a PE of 44 times this year.
Combining relative valuation and absolute valuation methods, we estimate that the company's reasonable market value is 191.9-197.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 218.03-224.54 yuan/share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
DCF Valuation Sensitivity Analysis
