Author: Wu Baiding
Friends, at the end of the year, the world is still not peaceful.
As the saying goes, if people sit at home, disaster will come from heaven. On the morning of December 29, that is, yesterday, a missile from Ukraine fell from the sky and fell into the territory of Belarus. In response to this incident, Belarus immediately lodged a formal protest with Uzbekistan, demanding a thorough investigation into the truth of the incident, bringing those responsible to justice, and taking practical measures in the future to resolutely prevent similar incidents from happening again.
Friends, this column has mentioned Russia and Ukraine many times. I would like to take this opportunity to briefly talk about Belarus. Belarus has a small land area of just over 200,000 square kilometers and a population of over 9.3 million. Belarus is located on the west side of the Eastern European Plain . Its borders are tightly surrounded by many European countries. It is an out-and-out landlocked country. It is impossible to have an outlet to the sea, and naval ships can only circle in the inland rivers. Belarus borders Russia, Poland, and Ukraine in order on its east, west, and south sides. Latvia and Lithuania complete the north and northwest directions of the "encirclement circle."
Belarus has been friendly with Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union . Now, Russia and Belarus are in a national alliance, committed to achieving diplomatic, economic, and monetary integration, similar to the EU that friends are familiar with. In the military, Iskander and S-400 provided by Russia have been installed in the Belarusian army and are on combat readiness. At the same time, Russia is also helping Belarus train pilots so that they can fly combat aircraft carrying nuclear weapons in the future.
Speaking of Russia-Belarus relations, we have to mention Kaliningrad . Kaliningrad is like an arrow in the heart of Europe for Russia. In order to deal with the threat of NATO, not only is the Baltic Fleet stationed here, but Russia also deploys strategic missiles and nuclear weapons. After being strongly armed, Kaliningrad can control the entire Baltic Sea and the Baltic Sea at a short distance, and can deter unfriendly NATO countries from a long distance. The military strategic value is huge. Currently, two channels connect the Russian mainland and Kaliningrad. The 500-kilometer land channel is not only short in distance, but also has a dedicated railway. Belarus is the only place for the land channel.
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Belarus has been fully supporting Russia due to the special relationship between Russia-Belarus Alliance . The United Nations voted to support, provide weapons and equipment, allow Russian troops to transit for combat, etc. The only bottom line is not to send troops to Ukraine, which is basically consistent with NATO's support for Ukraine. Today, Ukrainian missiles suddenly fell from the sky, perhaps a god-sent opportunity, which will provide new support for Putin to convince President Lukashenko of Belarus .
In fact, just before Zelensky visited the United States, on December 19, 2022, Russia took the lead and President Putin visited Belarus for the first time in three and a half years. Two days later, Belarus announced that the Russian and Belarusian armies would conduct joint military exercises and prohibit all people from entering the Gomel region without authorization. Friends, the Gomel Oblast in Belarus is adjacent to Ukraine and is located just "overhead" of the Ukrainian capital Kiev . The straight-line distance to Kiev is less than 100 kilometers. In other words, even if you are a Belarusian citizen, you are not allowed to enter the area without permission. What is this? Foreign media said that the Russian and Belarusian coalition forces were ready to go, and Ukraine felt chills above its head.
In Hui Ge’s view, in addition to containing the strength of the Ukrainian army, the actions of the Russian-Belarusian coalition forces also focus on preventing sudden NATO attacks and protecting the flank security of the two countries. On the Udong battlefield, the Russian army has controlled a large area of land, and Russia has gained huge strategic and economic benefits. If the next goal is to attack Kiev or even overthrow the Zelenskiy regime, in addition to the Russian army's own adequate preparations, it also needs to find a good helper to deal with the military countermeasures of NATO led by the United States. Looking around, Russia found that Belarus was undoubtedly the best candidate for sending troops directly to the war.
Friends, Ukraine now relies heavily on NATO assistance. Zelenskiy took the risk to visit the United States to fulfill the United States’ early aid commitments. At present, NATO aid supplies first arrive in Rzeszów, Poland, and then are transferred by land to Lviv, Ukraine. Rzeszow not only deploys several sets of Patriot 3 anti-aircraft missiles, but also has the US 82nd Airborne Division to help guard the home. Moreover, it is Polish territory and belongs to NATO's sphere of influence. Russia will not take action easily. The best way is to attack Lviv in Ukraine, or at least cut off the communication lines between Rzeszow and Lviv. Once NATO's weapons, equipment and ammunition are interrupted, the fighting will and strike capabilities of the Ukrainian soldiers will plummet.
In the view of Belarusian President Lukashenko, his insistence on not directly sending troops to join the war is probably based on two considerations. First, after sending troops, the United States and NATO will definitely take military actions, which will further threaten Belarus’ national security. Its ally Russia has more than enough to protect itself and helps Belarus. After a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia is a little stretched. Second, after sending troops, the Western economic sanctions of and are bound to come, which will make Belarus’ economy even worse.
In order to eliminate Lukashenko's concerns, Putin generously promised that Russia would directly arm the Belarusian army and share its abundant nuclear weapons resources. Since Belarus has an extremely special geographical location and is on the front line against NATO, NATO has always regarded it as a thorn in its side and a thorn in its flesh. In response to NATO, Belarus has taken a series of measures to strengthen war preparations and has even mobilized reservists to participate in military exercises on many occasions. Putin's face-to-face promise undoubtedly gave Lukashenko reassurance and enhanced Belarus' confidence in defending national interests.
Belarus has more than 80,000 regular troops, more than 110,000 local armed forces with strong combat effectiveness, and 300,000 reserve troops, most of which are retired soldiers. Friends, once President Lukashenko directly issues a military mobilization order, Belarus will be able to mobilize roughly 500,000 troops.
On September 16, 2022, the two heads of state jointly decided that China and Belarus would form an all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership . Friends, a good relationship needs a solid foundation to support it. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, when the Belarusian economy was in depression, China once extended a helping hand. It not only absorbed the heavy industrial products that Belarus was good at, but also avoided the continued rise in unemployment and the serious loss of talent. It also provided billions of dollars in loan payments and a large number of light industrial consumer products, which greatly stabilized the economic situation of Belarus.
Later, based on the friendly cooperative relationship between the two countries, Belarus directly came up with its special "off-road heavy-duty truck chassis technology" to solve the land carrier problem of the Eastern country's intercontinental missiles and greatly improved the maneuverability of the strategic weapon . Friends, when I saw the heavy-duty trucks carrying intercontinental missiles moving steadily forward at the important military parade, I was reminded that there is a contribution from Belarus. In recent years, following the "Polonez" salvo rocket launcher system, the two sides' military cooperation plans have continued to innovate, making the United States and Russia envious.
Shortly after Putin's visit, NATO began to deploy multiple "Patriot" missile systems in Poland, with a very obvious intention to fight against the Russian-Belarusian alliance. Foreign media predict that after attacking Ukraine, the Russian-Belarus alliance’s next target will be Poland. From Hui Ge's perspective, the current Russia-Belarus alliance and NATO are still in the mutual deterrence stage. If the fundamental interests of European countries are not touched, NATO will most likely not directly enter the war. If there is no progress in US assistance, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will come to an end.
A larger-scale war may be just in the minds of politicians. Ukrainian missiles fell into Belarus. Once Lukashenko takes the opportunity to join the war, it will surely become the trigger for the escalation of the war. In fact, as early as November 15, 2022, Ukrainian missile fragments appeared in Poland, and two civilians were unfortunately injured or killed, causing serious concern in Poland and NATO.Friends, Poland is a NATO country. Once the missile attack is attributed to Russia, it will trigger the collective defense mechanism of NATO countries and will inevitably break NATO's bottom line of never openly sending troops.
At that time, just as the G20 summit was being held, after emergency deliberations among the G7 countries headed by Biden , they unanimously decided to settle the matter and accept fire but not send troops, which became the mainstream opinion. In order to suppress Zelensky's attempt to frame Russia, the investigation team led by NATO directly excluded Ukraine, because NATO does not want to be deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expand the scale of the conflict. Many countries hope that the conflict can end as soon as possible.
Nowadays, Ukrainian missiles have fallen into Belarus, which is undoubtedly a fire hazard. The relevant countries will also face a new test. Belarus’s 500,000 troops are ready to go. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has once again reached a crossroads, and the war may begin...
