Author: Wu Baiding
When Zelensky thought that his visit to the United States was a great success and Ukraine was rejoicing, on December 25, 2022, Presidential Office Advisor Alestovich issued a voice of reason . This may be the last feast.
Presidential Office Advisor Alestovich
html Fourteen days later, on the 29th, Alestovich's "last feast" prediction was confirmed, because explosions rang out in many cities across Ukraine, including Kiev . On this day, the Russian army launched more than 120 missiles , bombarding Ukraine "in batches." CCTV reported that there were constant explosions in Kiev, Kharkov, Lviv and other places, causing power outages, shutdowns and other consequences.It seems that Zelensky laughed a little too early.
(Ukrainian air defense system is intercepting Russian missiles)
Friends, 2022 is about to pass, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is undoubtedly the biggest international focus in the world this year, whether it is Gu Ailing’s participation in the Winter Olympics Top, Messi won the World Cup, Pelosi visited Taiwan, the Queen suddenly returned to the west, the three prime ministers took office together, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times, the influence of cannot be compared with the Russia-Ukraine conflict . Faced with NATO 's previous breach of trust and its six consecutive eastward expansions, President Putin chose the most extreme method - "overturning the table", insisting on saying "no" to NATO, which did not care about Russia's strategic space, and directly sent troops to Ukraine to suppress the Zelenskiy government with force.
As of today, although Russia and Ukraine are interested in peace talks, the price difference between them is too large, and the prospect of a truce is unclear. According to Hui Ge's understanding, substantive negotiations on can only come to when one party is defeated or cannot afford it. Friends, from Russia’s perspective, it controls a large area of territory in the four states of eastern Ukraine, with an actual control area of more than 60,000 square kilometers, accounting for about 10% of Ukraine’s territory, which is equivalent to China’s Chongqing City or Ningxia Autonomous Region. Together with Crimea in 2014, Russia took a total of more than 18% of Ukraine's territory.
Before the war between Russia and Ukraine, there were 4 million people living in the four states of eastern Ukraine. Russians accounted for more than 60% of the population. They spoke Russian as their mother tongue, and most of them were pro-Russian. Within Ukraine, the four Ukrainian states have their own characteristics, and their economic strength is equivalent to that of China's southeastern coast. On the whole, the four Udong states are connected with Russian territory, and the sea and land passages of the Sea of Azov, the Black Sea, and Crimea are all under control. Russia's geopolitical security is basically guaranteed.
To the southwest, the Sea of Azov is the starting point for the Russian expedition. Going south out of the Sea of Azov, you can enter the Black Sea. Through the Bosporus in the southwest corner, Russia's power can touch the Mediterranean Sea. To the north is the wealthy Western Europe, and to the south is the most developed northern region of Africa. It has huge strategic significance.
In history, Luhansk and Donetsk were collectively known as the "Donbass region". became world-famous for the discovery of the Donbas coal mine. The proven coal reserves of were as high as 73.2 billion tons, ranking fifth in the world. Thanks to its rich coal resources, the Donbass region has become Ukraine's leading metal smelting, steel manufacturing, and machining center. One of the largest steel plants in Europe, the Azov Steel Plant is located in Mariupol in Donetsk.
The special steel produced in Zaporozhye , large transformers, automobile and aircraft engines, supports half of the related industries in Ukraine. The Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, which ranks first in Europe and seventh in the world in terms of installed capacity, is located along the Dnieper River, Ukraine's mother river. It is the well-deserved power center of Ukraine. Six 1,000-megawatt reactors supply one-quarter of the country's power generation.
Kherson is bordered by the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, and borders the land of Crimea. The Dnieper River enters the Black Sea here, which has great strategic value.The Kherson Shipyard, founded in the 1950s, is Kherson's industrial business card and can produce large transport ships, supply ships, oil tankers, scientific research vessels, etc.
In addition to industrial strength, Hui Ge discovered that Wudong has vast black land resources. Wheat, corn, soybeans, sunflowers and other crops are grown on the fertile land. If Ukraine is the granary of Europe, then the four places in eastern Ukraine are the granary of Ukraine.
Hui Ge talks about these to his friends to emphasize the importance of the four places in Wudong. No matter how different the battle reports of the two sides are, the battle lines do not lie. Even if Russia and Ukraine call a truce at the current fighting line, Russia will benefit greatly and Ukraine will probably cry without tears. Hui Ge noticed that before the war began, Russia's bottom line was to demand that Ukraine remain neutral and that NATO not accept Ukraine, but it never received a response. What's the result now? Zelenskiy is like a gambler. Under the continuous fire of NATO led by the United States, with the help of others, more than 400,000 young adults have been injured or killed on the front line, and nearly a quarter of the population, about 12 million Ukrainians, have been displaced in Europe. Not only does the country owe a huge debt, but it even uses human lives to provide weapons test data to others.
News from U.S. Army Colonel Douglas Magregor said that many of the advanced weapons provided by NATO to Ukraine are completely controlled by the U.S. military. One is to prevent Ukraine from expanding the situation without a bottom line, to avoid direct war between NATO and Russia, and the other is that the United States uses the front line as a testing ground for new weapons. Many U.S. soldiers wear Ukrainian military uniforms and constantly collect intelligence, supervise weapon performance and obtain experimental data on the front line.
Just when Zelensky thought that his visit to the United States was a great success and Ukraine was rejoicing, on December 25, 2022, Alestovich, advisor to the President's Office, gave a rational view, This may be the last feast provided by NATO. 's US$1 billion Patriot air defense system became the most eye-catching report card of Zelenskiy's visit to the United States. It requires 90 soldiers to fully master it after more than nine months of training, and the protection scope is limited to relatively spacious small bases. In a big city like Kiev, the air defense effect of a "Patriot" is very limited. What's even more terrible is that the anti-aircraft interceptor missile with a unit price of 1 million US dollars, I wonder how many rounds Ukraine can afford to fire?
Before the mid-term elections in the United States, the country was caught in the dilemma of inflation and recession. The traditional Federal Reserve's methods of raising interest rates and reaping money from the world were not powerful enough. The Democrats, led by Biden , were simply unable to resolve domestic conflicts.
After the mid-term elections , although the Democratic Party lost the House of Representatives, they finally retained the Senate, and the effect of the United States' war on fire became apparent. The regaining of the Senate has given Biden's Democratic Party a shot in the arm and increased confidence in the 2024 election. Next year, Biden will definitely shift his focus and desperately make up for the weaknesses of the domestic economy. Otherwise, the Republicans will never be merciful. This is also one of the important reasons why the United States has repeatedly contacted China . Friends, the United States is now eagerly waiting for China to take action to help them break through their economic difficulties. It is best to buy some U.S. bonds to cool down the crazy dollar and complete more U.S. import orders. The value of inflation must not explode.
When giving a speech in the House of Representatives, Zelensky was worthy of being an actor. He cleverly used the tone of Biden, Hillary and others to describe aid to Ukraine as a strategic investment of the United States. From the perspective of investment income, as Russia took the initiative to launch a war of attrition on and , the frontline war fell into a stalemate. While strengthening the defense line, General Sulovykin used violent artillery fire to continuously consume the Ukrainian army's effective strength. As the Russian army begins its troop expansion plan, the military industrial enterprises in the rear are working overtime day and night, and the Russian-Belarusian coalition forces are ready to attack. For Ukraine, the hope of continuing to expand its results is very slim, and the risk of the Russian army launching a counterattack is increasing.
Russia controls the world's leading natural resources, and the cost of a war of attrition is huge. If Saudi Arabia is the kingdom of oil, then Russia is the kingdom of resources. Its proven reserves of natural gas, iron, nickel, tin, etc. rank first in the world, its daily oil production is as high as 10.3 million barrels, ranking third in the world, its gold reserves rank third in the world, its coal reserves rank fifth, and its uranium reserves rank seventh in the world. Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, more than 40% of the oil and natural gas imported by the European Union every year came from Russia.
Now that Russia has taken over the four most developed states in Ukraine, Ukraine has little value left for the United States and the European Union. Ukraine does not have an advantage in population, natural resources, or industrial structure. It basically relies on foreign aid for weapons and equipment. It is fighting a war of attrition with Russia. Friends, this is using the enemy's strengths to overcome its own weaknesses. Ukraine's prospects are bleak.
What you can't get on the battlefield, you can't even get at the negotiation table. Faced with this situation, if the United States does not stop taking advantage of the situation, the future benefits may be even less, and the possibility of a chicken-and-egg situation is not impossible. After New Year's Day, as Republicans take control of the House of Representatives, America's purse strings are bound to tighten. Even if President Biden wants to continue aid, he may not be able to do so. Friends, the rational voice of Zelensky’s advisor Alestovich is indeed justified.
