Of course, air strikes and artillery strikes are more of a deterrent meaning and cannot bring fundamental progress to the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. Russia and Ukraine are still in a state of protracted war on the battlefield. Ukraine's long-term resistance has even given Western society a glimmer of hope that it can bring down Russia. Therefore, more and more Western countries are considering increasing their assistance with offensive weapons to Ukraine. There are even some disputes within the Western world because of this.
One of the key issues is whether to provide aid to Ukraine for the German-made "Leopard 2" main battle tank. Ukraine wants to launch a counteroffensive in the new year, and main battle tanks will be a major boost to its advancement. Zelensky has therefore urged Western countries on multiple occasions to provide more assistance for main battle tanks. One of the targets is Germany's self-developed "Leopard" main battle tank. The "Leopard" tank was developed by Germany specifically to deal with the Soviet T-34 tank . It weighs about 44 tons, has a main gun caliber of 75 mm, and can travel at a speed of 55 kilometers per hour. It is globally recognized as one of the tanks with the best armor-piercing performance during World War II. The performance of the "Leopard 2" main battle tank has also been upgraded, and it is also an important weapon and equipment sold by Germany to other European countries. Currently, there are more than 2,000 "Leopard 2" main battle tanks in more than 10 countries in Europe. Many countries, such as Poland , Finland , etc., have expressed their willingness to export their " Leopard 2" to Ukraine. However, when selling this main battle tank, the contract stipulates that any country that wants to transfer this tank to a third party must obtain German consent in advance.
Now Germany itself is unwilling to assist Ukraine with this tank, and has always disagreed with other countries exporting this main battle tank to Ukraine. The main reason is that if the main battle tanks are exported, it will be regarded as a very threatening action by NATO , and Germany does not want to act alone. Scholz said that if the United States first assists their "Abrams" M1 main battle tank, Germany will consider following up. However, the United States stated that the M1 main battle tank is "complex, expensive, and difficult to operate and train" and that the Pentagon is "not ready" to provide this tank to Ukraine. This is obviously an excuse. With the advancement of science and technology and the increasing degree of electronic informatization, weapons, like electronic equipment, must become easier and easier to operate. There is no such thing as complicated or difficult operation training. Later, the United States said that the M1 tank uses a jet engine, which consumes a lot of energy and is difficult to maintain. This means that the German-made "Leopard 2" is better.
Therefore, European countries are currently putting a lot of pressure on Germany. In order to put pressure on German Chancellor Scholz, European countries are using all kinds of tricks.
First, French President Macron announced that France would export the "light battlefield tank" AMX-10RC to Ukraine, which caused heated discussions in the military community about what exactly is a "tank". Many people believed that the "light battlefield tank" was not a tank at all. Macron's move was to "humiliate" Scholz.
Then the British decided to export the British-made "Challenger 2" to Ukraine. This was undoubtedly a main battle tank, and it also broke the rhetoric that "NATO main battle tanks cannot be lost to Ukraine." However, the number of British-made "Challenger 2" was too small, 14 in total, and it was almost negligible when thrown on the battlefield. This move was undoubtedly another pressure action that was more nominal than real. After all, Scholz's reason for refusing to export tanks to Ukraine in the past was that Germany should not act alone.
The most outrageous thing is Poland. Their deputy foreign minister publicly claimed that Poland might export "Leopard 2" to Ukraine without Germany's consent, which attracted widespread reports in European and American media. This is actually a public breach of the treaty. If Poland really does this, Germany will face the choice of whether to punish Poland for such breach of treaty.
The latest news is that according to the Lianhe Zaobao report on the 24th, Germany has stated that it will not prevent Poland from providing German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. If Poland really provides main battle tanks to Ukraine, it is likely to open up a new battlefield situation. In response, Russian State Duma Speaker Volodin warned on Sunday that the West's shipment of offensive weapons to Ukraine that threaten Russian territory will lead to a global catastrophe and (Russia) will use more powerful weapons to retaliate.
Russia’s threats had no real effect. The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) quoted the German "Der Spiegel" report on January 24 that under international pressure, Germany decided to provide at least 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The United States soon followed suit. U.S. President Joe Biden announced on November 25 that the United States would provide Ukraine with 31 M1 Abrams main battle tanks to fight against Russian aggression. President Biden said that the United States will also provide corresponding accessories and equipment to the Ukrainian army, as well as personnel training in Abrams tank driving, maintenance and logistics.
Although the United States and the West have always been looking forward to increasing assistance to Ukraine, some American think tanks have expressed a certain degree of concern about this. However, the focus of their concerns is that the shortage of weapons arsenals cannot properly cope with the possible conflict in Taiwan.
According to Lianhe Zaobao report on January 25, the Center for Strategic and National Studies (CSIS), a US think tank, published a report titled "Empty Boxes in a Wartime Environment: Challenges to the US Defense Industrial Base". It mentioned that there are many problems in the US defense industry, including outdated military contracting procedures and sluggish bureaucracies, etc., which may weaken the US military's ability to wage a protracted war against China. Especially since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in February last year, the United States has assisted Ukraine with a large amount of military equipment. The inventory of some weapon systems and ammunition has been depleted, such as "Stinger" surface-to-air missiles, 155mm howitzers and ammunition, etc. However, the United States has been slow to replenish its weapons arsenal.
In the foreseeable future conflict prospects, such as the very likely outbreak of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, after conducting many war games on the Taiwan Strait war, we found that in the conflict, the United States may run out of ammunition such as long-range precision guided missiles within a week. The Department of Defense's current inventory will fall far short of the needs of the war effort, leading to an 'empty box' problem. It is recommended that the United States reassess its total arms requirements and determine a sustainable ammunition procurement plan to meet current and future needs.
Another US think tank, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), also issued a report last week stating that as the Chinese navy transforms into a world-class navy, it may become more and more like the Japanese Combined Fleet on the eve of the attack on Pearl Harbor. China possesses an arsenal of land-based missiles and aircraft that can put adversary surface warships at risk. The report also said that the United States must change its way of thinking about future wars and prepare for increasingly fierce great power competition at sea. Just as the Imperial Japanese Navy conducts raids deep into the Indian Ocean, a globalized PLA may open new fronts in theaters beyond the Western Pacific.
If we look at the content of these think tank reports, we will find it ridiculous.Taiwan belongs to our indivisible territorial sovereignty, and it should be taken back no matter what method is used. However, except for areas other than Taiwan, we have no ambitions, and it is meaningless to take it back. The era of globalization is no longer in the past. The bigger the territory, the greater the benefits. The report of the American think tank secretly said that China will launch the Pearl Harbor attack like Japan. It is 100% a villain's heart and a gentleman's heart.
Of course, the United States is not unaware of these issues. They actually have their own calculations behind them, especially on the Taiwan issue. On the one hand, they stimulate the situation in Taiwan to escalate and force China to make a tough response; on the other hand, they exaggerate the Chinese threat to obtain more military support and military industry orders. The most typical example is that American politicians have been making unnecessary provocations.
On the second day of the Lunar New Year, the American media revealed a piece of news that could shock both sides of the Taiwan Strait: the Pentagon is preparing for the newly-appointed Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy’s trip to Taiwan. Although the report emphasized that the planning of the trip is still in the early stages, the report quoted officials familiar with the matter as giving a fairly specific time frame for the date of McCarthy's trip to Taiwan - this spring. If the trip takes place, it is bound to once again arouse the sensitive nerves between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations , and bring another huge impact to Sino-US relations that have just eased after the meeting between China and the United States in Bali. The U.S. government's constant emphasis on "setting up guardrails for Sino-U.S. relations" has become empty talk.
It can be seen that Sino-US relations are still at risk of deteriorating again, and the arrival of 2023 has not made the world situation easier. From the current point of view, the problem with the deterioration of Sino-US relations is caused by the continuous provocation and stimulation of the United States. Although the U.S. presidential election cycle has entered the second half, McCarthy's trip to Taiwan is not expected to be the last "Taiwan card" played by American politicians. Even if China still hopes for peaceful reunification or does not want to break up with the United States, in the face of increasing "bait" stimulation, the possibility of China and the United States' "guardrails" being breached is not non-existent, and Taiwan, as "the most dangerous place on earth," is likely to be pushed to the edge of the cliff again and again.
