The Balkan Peninsula in southern Europe, known as the powder keg of Europe, is filled with clouds of war.
On December 26, Serbian President Vucic ordered that the Serbian army and police enter the highest level of combat readiness. The war between Serbia and Kosovo is about to break out.
Of course, once a war breaks out, Europe and the United States, that is, NATO , as well as China and Russia may be involved in the war. And, this is likely to have far-reaching consequences.
From 1996 to 1999, a civil war broke out in the Yugoslav Federation (today's Serbia). NATO, led by the United States, intervened in this civil war. The United States conducted a 78-day bombing campaign against Yugoslavia. The territory of Yugoslavia was bombed to pieces. Roads, bridges, communication facilities, power facilities, etc. were all destroyed in large areas, leaving Yugoslavia unable to move.
At that time, NATO dispatched more than 1,000 fighter planes, 30 attack ships and submarines, conducted more than 20,000 bombing raids, and dropped 22,000 tons of explosives. The United States also dispatched the stealth bomber F-117 Nightingale, which was the only stealth bomber in the world at the time and loomed large over the world.
Yugoslavia had to surrender. This is rare in the history of war. After the enemy's massive bombing, they surrendered and accepted the other side's conditions. Only NATO, especially the United States in NATO, has such capabilities.
However, NATO's large-scale bombing of Yugoslavia was not authorized by the United Nations. This made this bombing, although famous in the history of war, bear the burden of the NATO military group's bullying and interference in the internal affairs of Yugoslavia.
Of course, after the bombing, NATO left it to the United Nations to clean up the mess.
After this battle, the Yugoslavia Federation split the country into today's Serbia and Montenegro, and the Yugoslavia Federation ceased to exist. Not just that, Kosovo secedes. But Serbia does not recognize Kosovo's independence, which has laid the groundwork for today's possible war.
Of course, the problem will not only appear today. As long as the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia exists, it will always become a flashpoint in the war in southern Europe.
Serbia knows that the big power behind Kosovo is NATO, that is, the United States. Under the intervention of major powers, even if Serbia does not recognize the independence of Kosovo, it will have nothing to do with NATO and can only swallow its anger. However, Serbia has a hidden secret.
On April 9 this year, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army dispatched Y-20 large transport aircraft to transport anti-aircraft missiles FK-3 to Serbia. This is a medium- and long-range air defense missile system. It follows the technology of the People's Liberation Army's Hongqi-22 air defense missile. It has a range of up to 100 kilometers and can intercept fixed-wing aircraft, cruise missiles, and armed helicopters. It also has the ability to intercept anti-radiation missiles.
According to Serbian President Vucic, the purchase of these equipment from China comes from an agreement reached in 2019.
In that shipment, from the 9th to the 11th, 6 -20s were sent every day to send weapons such as anti-aircraft missile systems to Serbia. According to the news, 15 drones are also included.
This is a major signal that has been released to the international community, especially the United States and NATO.
First, Serbia is no longer the Wu Xia Amon it used to be. It can only be beaten and bombed. With mainland China's air defense missile system, NATO fighters and bombers must be careful.
You can imagine a scene. Once a NATO bomber is shot down by a Serbian FK-3 anti-aircraft missile, what a shocking scene it will be?
This has an impact. In the past, American weapons appeared on various battlefields. Moreover, American weapons will appear on both sides of the warring countries. The United States can control which side wins through arms sales alone.
In addition, because American weapons are advanced and are more than one generation, sometimes two or three generations more advanced than those of many countries, the United States can control the outcome of the battlefield by providing offensive or defensive weapons.
In addition to the United States, only Soviet weapons could compete with it in the last century.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, although Russian weapons continued to occupy some arms markets around the world, they were no longer as good as American weapons, especially in terms of drones.
In 1991, the United States easily and happily won the Gulf War. It can be said that it won the war in a devastating manner. This war was a watershed in global weapon warfare methods, but it was a one-sided war method of the US military. The US military was invincible through cruise missiles, precision bombs, etc., and the cost of US military casualties and sacrifices was greatly reduced.
Then in 1999, the US military bombed Yugoslavia. This was a step further and also used stealth bombers . By this time, the US military was bombing with cruise missiles + (stealth) bombers.
However, if the export-oriented Hongqi-22 anti-aircraft missiles purchased by Serbia from China work and shoot down U.S. or NATO bombers and fighter jets , the pattern of the United States' rampant global battlefields in the past 30 years will change.
Therefore, this will also be a challenge to mainland China’s military weapons. If the FK-3 is effective, on the one hand, it will frustrate the momentum of the United States and NATO, and it will not be able to ask for anything from some small and medium-sized countries.
On the other hand, Chinese weapons will also become more prestigious in the global market.
There is a more important point. Now that the war model of the US military running rampant around the world has been broken, a new balance point will emerge in geopolitical conflicts in the future. After Biden took office, he vigorously promoted internationally that mainland China is destroying the international order .
However, if the FK-3 anti-aircraft missiles purchased by Serbia from China exert their power, the international order mentioned by the United States will really change. However, it will be China that rewrites the international order, and a new balance will emerge in the world.
What has changed in the world is the international order led by the United States. At this time, the United States can only abide by or respect it. When this happens, can the United States not comply and respect it?
At this point, how can the United States be left alone? Unless the United States joins the war, the geopolitical battlefield situation has changed. What can the United States do? This will have a very significant impact.
Once the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo breaks out, and the FK-3 and the drones sold by China to Serbia come into play, the United States will be affected, and NATO will also be affected.
This is just like this year's Russia-Ukraine war, except that the roles are reversed, with Serbian anti-aircraft missiles attacking NATO fighters and bombers. The prestige of NATO, the world's largest military group, will be challenged.
Once the prestige of NATO is challenged, the security protection of the United States will also be questioned, and the impact will be serious.
As you can imagine, if Russia loses this time in the Russo-Ukrainian war, or is dragged down by the United States and the West, not only will Russia's international prestige plummet, but Russia may not even be able to maintain its position in the Eurasian Economic Union and among the five Central Asian countries. These countries may have to turn to the West in order to survive.
This is why the United States wants to inflame the war in Ukraine and implement the strategy of first defeating Russia and then dealing with China. Using war between small countries and big countries to bring down big countries is what the United States is good at.
In the 1970s, the United States was trapped by the Vietnam War. This war caused the US government to print money aggressively, inflation increased, the status of the US dollar was challenged, and the national strength was compromised.
The United States had such profound experience, and of course it had to pass it on to its rival, the Soviet Union.
As a result, the Soviet Union was also in trouble during the nearly 10-year Soviet-Afghan War from 1979 to 1989. In that war, the United States also provided military assistance to Afghanistan, including Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
The United States wants to give Russia the quagmire of war again and plunge Russia into the Ukraine war. Unfortunately, at least so far, it has not been able to do so.
As a result, this year’s great power game has entered a second chapter, with the focus on the Balkan Peninsula in southern Europe.
If a war breaks out between Serbia and Kosovo. NATO, Russia, and China will all be involved. In other words, there will be a proxy war between China, the United States and Russia.
Logically speaking, China has always adhered to the practice of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and China should not be involved in the war between Serbia and Kosovo. However, this statement needs to be reconsidered from three levels.
First, China sells anti-aircraft missiles and drones to Serbia. This significance is different from the past. Moreover, China also dispatched 6 Y-20s to deliver anti-aircraft missiles and drones to Serbia for three consecutive days.
This is a grand scene, which can be said to be a high-profile appearance.
China can declare that Serbia is China’s interest. This is in contrast to what the United States has always said for decades, American Interests – American interests. As soon as China makes an announcement, both the United States and European countries will be wary to some extent.
Secondly, of course, this is not enough to deter the United States and deter NATO. If Russia also joins the ranks at this time to support Serbia, the result of the Sino-Russian alliance will be different in deterrence.
During the Sino-Russian joint military exercise a while ago, China and Russia announced that the purpose of the exercise was: "to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region ." China and Russia no longer say that the joint exercises do not target third parties, but directly make it clear.
This means that under the national strategic security and interests, China may change its position rather than remain unchanged.
China may strongly demand that warring Serbia and Kosovo, as well as related countries, must sit down and talk in a peaceful manner. Does this statement sound familiar? Hasn’t the United States always said before that it will not interfere in Taiwan Strait affairs, but hopes that both sides can resolve Taiwan Strait issues in a peaceful manner? What is the difference between
? The difference is strength and determination. When China and Russia join forces, their strength is there. As long as China and Russia show determination, this in itself is a deterrent.
If China demands peaceful means and negotiations, it is actually asking NATO not to intervene. If NATO does not intervene, Kosovo will not be able to defeat Serbia.
At this time, Serbia will have the upper hand.
If there is a conflict between Serbia and Kosovo, it may be difficult to resolve it in a short period of time. International conflict and interference are likely to continue for a period of time.
Third, mainland China can continue to sell weapons to Serbia, especially anti-aircraft missiles and drones. This would allow Serbia to be armed enough to deter NATO.
Of course, Serbia’s military strength is not enough to compete with NATO, it is far from enough. The point is, as long as Serbia shoots down some fighter planes and bombers when NATO intervenes with force, its deterrent effect will be established.
In other words, as long as Serbia takes down Kosovo's fighter jets first, the United States and NATO countries will need to think about it.
On the one hand, NATO will be wary.
On the other hand, at this juncture, NATO countries are facing high inflation, economic growth is threatened, and no country will easily intervene in other countries' wars, and will have concerns.
Take the Kosovo War in 1999 as an example. At that time, European countries were unwilling to intervene until the United States raised its flag and sent bombers to bomb Yugoslavia.
So, will the United States intervene? The United States is most likely to intervene in this possible conflict and then lead other NATO countries to conduct military intervention in Serbia. If so,
However, times have changed and today’s international situation is different. During the Kosovo War in 1999, China's national power was still weak and Russia was still in economic decline. Neither China nor Russia had enough strength to compete with the United States.
On the night of May 7, 1999, the US military B-2 stealth strategic bomber launched 5 precision-guided bombs , destroying the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia, killing 3 people and seriously injuring 6 others.
This incident deeply impressed the Chinese people, but they were unable to respond strongly to the US bombing of the embassy at the time.
Today’s situation is different. This year there is a Russia-Ukraine war, in which the United States, NATO, and Russia are all deeply involved. It is no longer the situation 23 years ago when NATO was the dominant force and one-sided.
Of course, China and Russia cannot allow Serbia to be bombed by the United States and NATO again. This has done too much harm to the strategic interests of China and Russia.
From the war in Ukraine in the west to the situation in the Taiwan Strait in the east, China and Russia have no room to retreat. The same is true for EU countries.
A war between Russia and Ukraine has already stripped Europe of its skin. If there is another war between Serbia and Kosovo, EU funds will flee again and industries will continue to flee. The EU cannot afford another attrition.
Therefore, in the following three situations, the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo may become a proxy war.
First, if NATO interferes too much, China and Russia will directly express their participation, although this possibility is low.
Second, China and Russia strongly demand that conflicts be resolved peacefully. If NATO refuses to listen and still intervenes, China and Russia will provide military assistance or weapons support to Serbia. Of course, there are many ways to support, it can be free or it can be a loan.
In this case, it may end up turning into a proxy war. If it is a proxy war, this will benefit China and Russia.
The reason is:
First, proxy wars have the advantage of avoiding direct conflicts between major powers under the competition and game between major powers. The proxy war between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War of the last century avoided direct conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union and avoided nuclear war.
Second, the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo occurred in Europe. For the four-party game between China, the United States, Russia and Europe, there is no doubt that Europe is the most unlucky.
Third, since the Second World War, mainland China has never sent troops far away from its borders, nor has it openly supported a war far away from its borders.
If the first step is just a proxy war, it will be easier for China to evaluate its pros and cons.
Whether it is supporting Serbia with weapons or providing military training , it is the least intense way and the least costly way.
Finally, if a conflict does occur, will China take this step?
From the perspective of stakes and strategic interests, it would be beneficial for China to take appropriate action to hold back the United States and NATO in Southern Europe.
In fact, when Serbia purchases anti-aircraft missiles from mainland China, China should know what will happen.
Serbia and Kosovo are a flash point and a conflict point where war may occur. Although air defense missiles are defensive in nature, Kosovo’s air combat power is not strong. Who is Serbia going to deal with when it purchases FK-3 air defense missiles?
On the other hand, when Serbia placed the order from China, it was very bright. Apart from the American Patriot and the European Aster anti-aircraft missiles, there are only Chinese and Russian anti-aircraft missile systems in the world.
Since NATO is the supporting force behind Kosovo, it is difficult for Serbia to obtain American or European air defense missile systems. In terms of cost-effectiveness, who else would it be compared to China?
Serbia purchased anti-aircraft missiles from China just to wait for this day to come. When it has to take action, Serbia will not end in a disastrous defeat like in 1999.
The key point is, can the FK-3 air defense missile system exert its power?
If it can, it will be a nightmare for the United States and NATO. Of course, this nightmare is far from bringing down NATO, but it will change the global geopolitical situation.
First, the United States and NATO are no longer asking for and taking from some small and medium-sized countries around the world. A single bombing can destroy a country.
Second, although the United States is still strong, NATO will still be the most powerful military group in the world. However, if it continues to easily send troops overseas and intervene overseas as before, it may fall into the quagmire of war and fall into a war of attrition.
However, in the context of the game between China, the United States, Russia and Europe, neither party is willing and will not easily get involved in a war.
Third, Serbia has purchased a total of three battalions of FK-3 anti-aircraft missile systems. One battalion has 6 missile launch vehicles . If each missile launch vehicle can carry 4 missiles , one battalion has 24 missiles, and the three battalions have a total of 72 anti-aircraft missiles.
Although there are not many, not more than a hundred, as long as they exert their power and shoot down some fighters and bombers, many countries will follow suit and purchase air defense missile systems from China or Russia.
Because this is the most effective way to defend against enemy bombing.
That general said that the "perfect" bombing of Yugoslavia by NATO in 1999 will not happen again. It will be difficult for the United States and the West to bully a country with absolute superiority in air force as they did in the past, because they have to pay a price.
However, according to this statement, what if the United States strongly supports Taiwan, sells more Patriot missiles to Taiwan, and arms Taiwan?
At this time, it depends on the geographical location and the difference between the People's Liberation Army and Taiwan's armed forces.
Because Taiwan is close to the mainland, it is completely within the strike range of the People's Liberation Army's missiles and long-range rocket launchers. In addition, the difference in military force between the two sides is too great. Under the coverage of "perfect" missiles and rocket launchers , Taiwan faces the People's Liberation Army's super military force and is next to the mainland. It will be useless to purchase additional air defense missiles.
