html A few days ago, Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen officially announced that starting from January 1, 2024, the service period of male draftees born after January 1, 2005 will be extended from four months to one year. This is the first time in more than 700 days that Tsai Ing-wen has accepted questions from the media at a press conference. On that day, Tsai Ing-wen successfully attracted many media shots. But the irony is that Tsai Ing-wen, who is so arrogant, is just the "tool man" who announced the extension of military service, and it was the Americans behind it who gave the order. On the day of Tsai Ing-wen's "official announcement", the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) posted on social platforms that it welcomed Taiwan's recent announcement on the reform of the military conscription system and praised the move for demonstrating Taiwan's commitment to self-defense and strengthening its "deterrence capabilities." AIT's statement proves that the United States highly affirms Tsai Ing-wen's performance. However, 's "verbal praise" at this moment does not mean the end of the extension of military service. Many analysts pointed out that Taiwan's compulsory service may be extended to at least two years in the future.
Whether it is the past four months, the next year, or the next two years, how much will changes in the service period increase the combat effectiveness of the Taiwan military?
Regarding the answer to this question, public opinion on the island is generally pessimistic, and the more Taiwan military insiders are, the more negative their attitude is. An online poll released by Taiwan's "TVBS News Network " on December 26 last year showed that as many as 75% of netizens had no confidence in the Taiwan military's ability to maintain Taiwan's security, while only 23% of the public had confidence.
More than 70% of the people have cast a vote of no confidence in the combat power of Taiwan's military. The reasons are complex, but in the final analysis it lies in the lack of strength of the Taiwan military itself. The Democratic Progressive Party has long been distrustful of the Taiwanese military, whose political stance leans towards the blue camp. It has long used the media and the Internet to smear and vilify the image of the Taiwanese military and retired generals. For the young people in the Taiwan military, the Democratic Progressive Party has tried its best to win over them, including simplifying the training content, shortening the period of compulsory service, and changing military conscription to recruitment. It can be said that 's weak Taiwan military is a unique product of the island's politics, and it is also a negative consequence caused by the DPP.
Taiwan currently implements a military service system that combines voluntary and compulsory service. Among them, volunteers are recruited from soldiers. They are professional soldiers who are paid to work. This is the main force of the Taiwan military. Compulsory service is a reserve force. In theory, all young people of appropriate age who meet the requirements must participate.
As early as Chen Shui-bian's administration, Taiwan's defense department formally established a task force to carry out recruitment planning and evaluation of volunteer soldiers; in 2003, Taiwan's "Legislative Yuan" passed an amendment to the volunteer soldier service regulations, formally establishing a system with volunteer service as the mainstay and compulsory service as a supplement. It is scheduled to reach the goal of all-volunteer service in 2017, that is, an all-recruitment system. In 2011, due to insufficient recruitment of soldiers, the then leader Ma Ying-jeou announced that the 2013 all-enlisted military system would be postponed. At that time, he was severely criticized and protested by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party.
Starting from January 1, 2018, Taiwan will implement a complete military recruitment system. Compulsory service was changed to four months of military training. The service period that has been extended this time is the compulsory service part, that is, the reserve armed forces. Some media people pointed out that the number of compulsory military service in Taiwan is only 60,000. Extending their service period will have almost negligible effect on improving the combat effectiveness of Taiwan's combat troops. The only ones affected are probably the young people on the island.
When announcing the news, Tsai Ing-wen shouted the slogan "Only by preparing for war can we avoid war" and claimed that the extension of military service was inspired by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This argument is simply untenable. Media person Zhao Shaokang pointed out in a political commentary program that Ukraine extended the period of compulsory service to one and a half years in 2016, but did it ultimately prevent the outbreak of war?
The more practical question is, what kind of preparation for war is extending the compulsory service period? If we really want to prepare for war, shouldn't we first improve the combat effectiveness of our volunteers? The Taiwan military currently has a serious shortage of volunteer personnel. It was originally planned to have 210,000 people, but in fact there are only about 180,000; and the main gaps are in front-line combat troops. Once a conflict occurs in , many combat units of the Taiwan military may face the dilemma of having no one available.
Why can’t the Taiwan military recruit people? The most direct reason is that the money is not enough.The monthly salary of soldiers is only NT$35,000, which is lower than that of construction workers. Some media people pointed out that the United States spends 100 billion U.S. dollars a year on the salary, benefits and benefits of military personnel. At the same military level, the Taiwan military is less than one-fifth of the U.S. military. A senior sergeant in the U.S. military is paid more than a major general and brigade commander in the Taiwan military. There is a huge difference.
And the United States has been asking the Taiwan military to strengthen its reserve forces. It is obvious that it wants to delay the pace of the war by sacrificing Taiwan's young people and use "urban warfare" to drag the mainland into the quagmire . Wu Sihuai, a retired lieutenant general and "legislator" of the Taiwan Army, criticized the United States for buying weapons for Taiwan's military and forcing Taiwan to extend its service period. Taiwan has become a pawn of the United States. Everyone must see clearly. " But why should Taiwan be used as a pawn? Taiwanese are the ones who die and Taiwan is injured. If a war breaks out in Taiwan, it will be in ruins within three months. How many years will it take to rebuild? "
Extending the period of compulsory service is not "preparation for war" at all. Even if the DPP authorities are determined to prepare for war, can it really have the effect of avoiding war? Tsai Ing-wen released multiple posters on social media on December 27 last year, one of which read, "As long as Taiwan becomes stronger, it will not become a battlefield." Former Democratic Progressive Party "legislator" Guo Zhengliang said that this is of course not true. No matter how strong Taiwan is, it will not be better than mainland China.
The extension of the compulsory service period by the Democratic Progressive Party authorities will not have much impact on the balance of military power between the two sides. This "American prescription" will only harm the young people on the island. Some people point out that Taiwan has a declining birthrate. In the past year, there were 400,000 newborns, but now there are only 160,000. If half of the men of that age are to serve in the military, 80,000 to 100,000 boys will be caught "counting steamed buns" every year, which will seriously affect Taiwan's overall competitiveness.
Tsai Ing-wen took a tough stance at the press conference and asked the Taiwanese people to prepare for war with the Democratic Progressive Party. But what Taiwanese people want to ask is, who is , making war a hot topic in the Taiwan Strait region? Who makes Taiwan the most likely place in the world for war to develop? Didn’t Tsai Ing-wen hold high the banner of “maintaining the status quo” during the election? What status quo does she maintain?
The DPP’s political deception has long been exposed by reality. "Taiwan independence" is the biggest threat to peace across the Taiwan Strait, and allowing the "Taiwan independence" party to be in power will only push the Taiwanese people into the abyss of disaster. For the 23 million Taiwanese people, there is only one way to avoid war, and that is to completely eliminate the "Taiwan independence" . (Text/Guan Qixing Review/Xu Hui)
