Author: Zhou Dewu
▲Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the White House on the 21st and met with US President Biden .
On December 21, Ukrainian President Zelensky made a surprise visit to the United States, which became a major news at the end of the year. This is the third time Zelenskiy has set foot on American soil since taking office as president in April 2019. Different from the previous two times, this visit has attracted special attention from the world.
For a full 10 months since the Russia-Ukraine war began, Zelensky’s whereabouts and military command center have remained a mystery. His standard outfit on TV is also a military uniform, appearing as a wartime president, and he was also wearing this outfit when he arrived at Andrews Air Force Base in the United States. Zelenskiy's visit to the United States was his first foreign visit since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In order to ensure safety, the United States and Ukraine made careful plans to take a trip via Poland, and were accompanied by the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. They did not dare to announce the news to the outside world until the plane entered U.S. airspace.
Zelensky chose to visit the United States on Christmas Eve, and the timing is intriguing. First, the war situation in Ukraine has changed in favor of Ukraine. In southern Ukraine, the Ukrainian army retook Kherson and made plans to march into Crimea. In the Udong region, Ukraine launched a large-scale counterattack against the Donetsk region and achieved small gains. Second, Russia continues to carry out aerial attacks on infrastructure throughout Ukraine. Water shortages and power outages have become the normal life of Ukrainian people. People have to endure the darkness and cold winter, which greatly tests the willpower of the people. Third, Ukraine urgently hopes that the United States can provide more advanced offensive weapons, including the Patriot missile defense system , the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), "Grey Eagle" and "Reaper" drones, etc. However, the United States is hesitant, especially long-range missiles that can reach Russian territory. There is still a lot of controversy over whether to resell them to Ukraine. What makes Zelensky even more troubled is that the control of the US House of Representatives is about to change hands on January 3 next year. There are huge variables in whether the Republican-dominated House of Representatives can continue to donate as generously to Ukraine as the Democratic Party.
The United States has always used Ukraine as a pawn to attack Russia, and some Ukrainian politicians have spared no effort and are immersed in it. This summer, under the leadership of the Democratic Party, the U.S. Congress passed the "Ukrainian War Lend-Lease Act", providing Ukraine with more than 50 billion US dollars in war aid. The "US Budget Bill for Fiscal Year 2023" is about to be voted on by Congress. This huge expenditure of up to 17,000 US dollars includes US$45 billion in aid to Ukraine. There is no problem that this bill will pass the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives, but it is doubtful whether it can win the required 60 votes in favor in the Senate. In other words, 10 Republican senators must support this bill to pass it. House Republican leader McCarthy and others hope that Republican senators will come forward to stop it. As a stopgap measure, Congress would be better off giving priority to passing a temporary spending bill, which can not only prevent the government from shutting down during the New Year, but also hand over major budget powers to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, so that they can carefully consider the relevant provisions to control the U.S. money bag.
A group of Republican congressmen have clearly asked the federal government to tighten expenditures, and they do not want to spend tens of billions of dollars on Ukraine, believing that "this is a waste of precious national resources." For this reason, some right-wing members of the Republican Party even refused to attend Zelensky's speech. In order to become Speaker of the House of Representatives, McCarthy had to turn a blind eye to the demands of these right-wing congressmen. He made it clear many times that the House of Representatives would not write a "blank check " for assistance to Ukraine in the future. However, some Republican leaders believe that this bill is "friendly" to the Republican Party in terms of military spending and there is no need to block it. This obviously conflicts with McCarthy's ideas.
At present, the two parties in the United States have a delicate attitude towards the issue of aid to Ukraine. Biden is determined to do it, but he has no idea whether he can convince the Republicans. Therefore, he needs Zelensky, the "speech genius", to come to Capitol Hill in person to impress these congressmen, which will touch their "souls" more than shouting from a distance.Some commentators in the United States pointed out that "Zelensky was holding a shopping bag in his hand, hoping to take away the Christmas gifts he wanted." Earlier, Ukrainian presidential adviser Podolyak tweeted a "wish list." Although the Biden administration will not accept everything as ordered, it is still necessary to appropriately meet certain requirements of Ukraine when Zelensky visits Washington .
▲ Zelensky and the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Pelosi exchanged flags
In March this year, Zelensky delivered a speech to the U.S. Congress via video and even compared Russia's actions to Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor. This time, American public opinion compared Zelensky's visit to the visit of British Prime Minister Churchill to the United States at the end of December 1941. When interacting with Democratic Senate Majority Leader Schumer, Zelensky said, "If Congress cannot pass large-scale aid to Ukraine, it means we will lose the war."
Zelensky is very good at speaking. In the past 10 months, he has participated in many important international conferences via video, and is also a "frequent visitor" to Western countries. From time to time, he appears on the big screens of the legislative bodies of these countries. As a former actor, he very skillfully tailors his speech to different audiences and knows how to please politicians from various countries.
This time Zelensky came to the hall of the U.S. Congress, received applause, and said something that American politicians really wanted to hear. In order to cater to the Biden administration's democratic strategy, he emphasized that Ukraine and the United States share common values. The war in Ukraine is not only related to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, but also the pursuit of world justice, peace and international legal order. He emphasized that U.S. aid to Ukraine "is not charity, but an investment in global security and democracy."
Zelensky understands the current "political correctness" of the U.S. Congress, so he made insinuations in his speech, saying that U.S. assistance will accelerate Ukraine's victory and Ukraine's victory over Russia. " It will make it clear to any potential aggressor that no country can succeed in changing its national borders, and no one can carry out autocratic rule against the will of the people." In the Western discourse system, these sentences have special connotations and directions. I believe that politicians in the US Capitol can understand the implication of Zelensky.
Ironically, Ukraine has been the focus of public opinion in the United States in the past few years, but the image of Ukraine and its president has undergone a 180-degree turn. The fundamental reason is that Ukraine has become a tool in the struggle between the two parties in the United States. In essence, the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war is the deepening of the US strategy to contain Russia, and Ukraine has become a pawn in the strategic chessboard of the US and Russia. During the Trump administration, Trump forced Ukraine to investigate Biden's son Hunter's role in a Ukrainian energy company, which triggered the "Ukraine incident" and became the reason for the House of Representatives to impeach Trump. During the UN General Assembly meeting that year, Trump and Zelensky sat together, and the TV footage of Zelensky secretly glancing at Trump was impressive.
During Zelensky's visit to the United States this time, another core theme he expressed at the Capitol was "fighting for the United States." Although Zelensky made it clear that the United States does not need to send a single soldier, as long as it provides advanced weapons, Ukrainians can operate these things well to defeat Russia. But Biden is worried about this. On the one hand, the U.S. government is happy to see Zelensky's determination to resist Russia, but on the other hand, it does not want to hand over the leadership of the war to Zelensky to prevent him from being motivated and triggering a direct conflict between the United States and Russia or between NATO and Russia. Therefore, it still dares not give more advanced weapons. This is the contradiction in the U.S. policy towards Ukraine.
▲The United States provides Ukraine with the "Patriot" missile air defense system
However, when you visit at Christmas, you cannot leave empty-handed. On the same day, Biden promised to provide another US$1.85 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including a set of "Patriot" missile air defense systems; the Ukrainian army will receive training at the US military base in Grafenwil, Germany.As for the extent to which Zelenskiy has convinced Republicans to continue to strongly support Ukraine next year, the next Congressional vote on the 2023 budget will test the quality of his trip to the United States. Russia's reaction to Zelensky was not good, believing that neither the United States nor Ukraine wanted peace and was deliberately escalating the conflict. It seems that there is still huge uncertainty about the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023.
