Ukraine should never be absolutely necessary. It used drone on a large scale to raid Sevastopol , completely angering Putin .
Ukraine's attack on Sevastopol on Saturday was called the "largest" attack on Crimea since the outbreak. Although the Russian side said that it shot down all drones, the ship of the Black Sea Fleet was still damaged. Russia said that some ships still carry out maritime grain transport missions.
Russia, with the mediation of Türkiye and the United Nations, agreed not to block Ukrainian ports and allow Ukraine's food to flow. However, because Ukraine's drone raid has made Putin wake up and that kindness to Ukraine and the West will not be exchanged for concessions. The Russian authorities have clearly stated that they will withdraw from the agreement to transport agricultural products from Ukrainian ports.
After Russia issued a statement, US President Biden immediately accused Russia of endangering global food security. It would be fine if the United States didn't care who attacked Sevastopol at the first time, but it was also shouting to catch the thief. You should know that the United States also sanctioned Russia's fertilizer and grain exports. Moreover, after Russia agreed to lift the ban on Ukrainian ports, the West was silent and no one came out to appreciate Russia's actions. Nowadays, the West is more active in criticizing others, and the double standards are indeed well-deserved.
continues to block Ukrainian ports, which will definitely cause fluctuations in food prices in the short term, especially for EU . Because Russia blocked the ports of Odessa and Nikolayev , the price of pasta in the EU once rose. Now with the arrival of winter, Russia blocked the ports of Ukraine again, which means that the EU will at least be backfired again.
Although European natural gas prices have fallen in the short term, this does not mean that the electricity prices and natural gas prices used within the EU will fall sharply. After all, in order to fill the reserves, the EU bought a lot of liquefied natural gas from the United States at a sky-high price. The price of natural gas plummeted, and it was the time when the EU completed its natural gas reserves. That's why Germany prepared a 200 billion euro energy subsidy action. The EU's energy crisis has not been resolved due to the fall in natural gas prices.
And as the temperature drops, heating demand increases, electricity needs increase, the EU will definitely usher in an increase in energy prices, and with the change in food supply again, it may be difficult for Europe to decline, and this will indirectly affect the United States.
Why did Putin ignore the face of the United Nations and Türkiye this time?
First, as far as the United Nations is concerned, Russia's demands have not been met on many issues, not limited to Zelensky violations through video connections, Zaporo thermonuclear power plant issues, etc. The United Nations' approach obviously did not satisfy Russia. Because the United States interferes with it, the West continues to be diplomatic isolation against Russia, forcing Putin to face reality.
Second, for Turkey, Russia and Turkey have important cooperation in the natural gas field, because the gas transmission capacity of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline has been reduced, and the Turkish Stream is responsible for ventilation to southern Europe. At this time, Turkey is seeking to expand its influence on the EU, and Russia also intends to give Turkey a share of the natural gas field, so Türkiye will not have much opinion on Putin's blockade of ports such as Odessa again.
Third, for Russia itself, blocking Ukraine's grain exports also has a favorable side. After all, Russia is also a major global producer and an important wheat exporter. Russia is fully capable of replacing Ukraine's exports to countries that need food. It can also force the EU to make a comprehensive compromise on Russia's food sanctions.
Ukraine clearly knows that attacking Crimea in Black Sea will lead to revenge from Russia, why do Kiev authorities still have to take the initiative?
First, attacking Crimea may not be the meaning of the Kiev authorities. Judging from the equipment used and the operation method, it has a typical Western color.As Russia said, British military units participated in the attack on Sevastopol, which means that it is possible that Britain used Ukraine to make things difficult for Russia.
The British Type 45 destroyer was resentful after being driven away in Crimean waters and always wanted to take revenge on Russia. Now there are many British military personnel in Ukraine, so it is not ruled out that the attack on Sevastopol was done by Britain using Ukraine. Because attacking Crimea will not change the situation on the battlefield, it is nothing more than causing trouble for Russia.
Second, Ukraine needs continuous public attention to make the West focus on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Compared to the price paid to win a victory in Donbass or Khlsong , the Ukrainian army obviously feels that it is more eye-catching by attacking Crimea, so this may also be the choice of the Kiev authorities.
Third, Ukraine needs to boost morale and needs to frequently create big news. Attacking Crimea and attacking the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters will obviously make the Ukrainian army fighting on the frontline enjoyable. Of course, there is also a revenge element in this. After all, Russia wants to bomb western Ukraine, and the missiles launched are basically implemented from the Black Sea.
Let's look at the battle situation between Russia and Ukraine. Russia completed the mobilization of 300,000 reserves and exported 82,000 people to Ukraine. After 41,000 of them rushed to the front line, the defense capabilities of the Russian army in Donetsk and Khlsson were obviously strengthened, the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army stagnated, and the overall combat situation of both sides has not been broken. However, as more and more Russian troops enter the Ukrainian battlefield, if the Ukrainian army cannot mobilize more troops in the short term, the Russian army's offensive momentum may become more and more fierce.
Now Russia is not only mobilizing reserves, but domestic weapons manufacturers are also stepping up the production of various equipment, including missiles, tanks, , drones, etc. Moreover, Russia may continue to purchase suicide drones from Iran to meet the demands of low-cost targets in Ukraine. It has enough troops and ammunition supplies can keep up, and the burden will be thrown to Europe and the United States.
Although Ukraine has a lot of troops now, its production capacity of weapons and equipment is already very low. Most of them rely on Western aid. Whether it is individual equipment or Haimas multiple rocket launchers, they all require complete sets of assistance, and Ukraine's consumption will not be small. The United States has taken several actions to launch additional military aid in a short period of time, which shows that the Ukrainian army confronts Russia on the front line and has a very high demand for weapons and ammunition.
How can the Russian-Ukrainian conflict see hope of ending? In addition to peace talks, it depends on who will break the current situation first. If Russia wins Donetsk, Khlsson, Zaporoze, in the short term, then the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may enter a level of contact, and all parties will start dialogue, and there will be conditions for reaching a ceasefire. However, as far as we can see, this day will not come too early.