The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been nearly 8 months since the outbreak of February 24. Behind the superficial hustle and bustle, there is a complex background of interests and the relationship between us and our enemies, which affects and promotes the process of multi-party alliances and events.
1. Russia’s strategic motivation and time choice for launching a special military operation against Ukraine.
(I) NATO Step by step strategic pressure, Ukraine joins NATO and enters the countdown. Once it joins, Russia will find it difficult to attack Ukraine after it is added. In this way, Russia's strategic security will be extremely deteriorated and its strategic space will be extremely compressed, so the situation forces Russia to have no choice but to take action.
(II) After more than 10 years of quantitative easing, the US economy is currently facing huge high inflation pressure and has to enter a tightening cycle. The economy is likely to fall into recession and cannot take care of itself, which provides a window for Russia to take action.
(III) Since 2018, the United States has launched trade wars and technological wars against Eastern powers. Eastern powers have withstood the pressure, and the United States has killed 800 enemies and damaged one thousand of itself. The whole world, including Russia, has seen that the United States' economy, technology and productivity are no longer able to surpass the world, and its hegemony decline is visible to the naked eye. The global balance of power has undergone major changes, providing Russia with confidence.
(IV) Putin years old is 70 years old, and his presidency will end on May 6, 2024. Putin has a strong sense of historical responsibility and urgency in the times. When opportunities come and conditions are basically ripe, he took decisive action after careful planning and repeated deductions in politics, economy, finance, energy, military and other aspects. Judging from the results, except for the first phase of the military operation underestimating the United States' participation, underestimating Ukraine's determination to resist, and underestimating the 25-level driver of Zelian, everything else is pretty good.
2. The United States’ strategic motivation and response strategy
(I) Let Russia decline and further disintegration be the basic national policy of the United States and also a priority strategy. Russia has a vast territory, rich resources, a population of over 100 million, and a strong national character, especially the number of nuclear weapons and is the world's largest. These are all fears from the United States and are obstacles to the implementation of global hegemony. Therefore, they have always been opponents that the United States firmly suppresses. However, the United States' internal attitude towards Russia is divided into two factions. The Democratic Party and Biden are incompatible with Russia, while the Republican Party and Trump are relatively moderate to Russia. In addition to the interests of the party and the interests of the consortium behind it, it is also mixed with personal grudges and hatreds.
(II) The United States needs to use Europe's fear of Russia to control Europe and enhance Europe's dependence on the United States. Therefore, Russia's foul relationship with Europe is in line with the United States' strategic needs.
(III) The United States has serious inflation and the economy is worrying. industry is hollowed out and it needs to drive European capital and industries to the United States. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is at its right time. Russia certainly knows the US's motives and knows that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is beneficial to the US, but Russia has a higher-level strategic need, that is, national security.
(IV) The United States has been aiding Ukraine and instructed Ukraine to resist Russia with all its might. The United States also demanded and coerced Europe to support Ukraine in confronting Russia, and colluded with Europe to impose the toughest sanctions on Russia, constantly consuming Russia and hollowing out Europe. At the same time, control the intensity and scope of the conflict, ensuring that it will not escalate into a full-scale war or even nuclear war , and will make yourself in trouble. This is the current strategy of the United States.
III. EU strategic motivation and response strategies
(I) Europe is afraid of Russia and hopes that Russia will weaken and collapse and eliminate the fear of threats that have been threatened for thousands of years. In this regard, Europe and the United States are highly consistent, so Europe and the United States have a high degree of strategic coordination.
(II) Europe supports Ukraine to fight against Russia to a large extent, because it is fully in line with Europe's strategy to Russia and its own security interests, and it is willing to sacrifice some economic interests.
(III) The United States coerces Europe to support Ukraine and Russia is also an important reason for Europe's current behavior. Europe has been penetrated too deeply by the United States. Politics, economy, finance, technology, and public opinion have been deeply controlled by the United States. European politicians, entrepreneurs, and social activists will not have a good ending if they offend the United States. It is no exaggeration to say that Europe is a colony of the United States.
4. The strategic tendencies of other medium-sized and above major countries
Global powers and regional powers outside the United States, Europe, and Russia all hope to consume and weaken the relevant parties to the conflict through conflict, especially hope to delay cross-US so that everyone can be liberated from the shackles of US global hegemony as soon as possible. Of course, most people do not want Russia to fall first, which is not the current blessing of other major powers.
5. The current enemy-to-me relationship between all parties
(I) Russia
Russia's enemies are the United States (Democratic Party and Biden Group) and the United Kingdom. Next are Ukraine, Polish , Baltic Three Kingdoms , etc. Again, most EU countries, Japan, Australia, etc.
Russian friends, first of all, Belarusian , Syria . Next is North Korea and Iran. Once again, there are some countries in the Middle East, Turkey, etc., including Hungary, Serbia, Saudi , etc.
has special relations with Russia mainly including BRICS countries.
Old European countries such as Germany, France, Italy are the targets that they may strive for, and are currently mainly hostile.
(II) United States
There are very few true friends in the United States, and there are only three in the universe. First of all, the first is the UK; secondly, Australia is loyal; secondly, Israel, Israel has a bit of personality, and sometimes it gives the United States a little bit of a look with the relationship between and Jewish . These three countries rely heavily on the United States in strategic terms and are completely bound to interests. Once the United States declines and collapses, the two scoundrels, Britain and Australia, will surely become abandoned children of Europe and Asia, and will be played with until they decline, while Israel will deteriorate in the Middle East.
The enemy of the United States, or potential enemies, or de facto non-friendly countries, is first and foremost the United States itself, mainly the Republican Party and the Trump Group. The second is Russia, North Korea, Iran and Syria. Again, all other countries that are bullied and bullied. Of course, most of these countries are verbally friendly to the United States, but in fact they turn their heads and spit out loud. The decline or even collapse of the United States is popular among most countries around the world.
The country on the surface is friendly and Japan. Although the United States and Japan are allies, Xiaobian acts like a dog in front of the American master, but in fact he has been looking for opportunities to get rid of the control of the United States. As long as the opportunity is mature, he will fight back at any time. However, the United States is really strict in preventing and controlling Japan.
appears to be friendly, but in fact, countries that are waiting and watching include South Korea, Singapore, etc.
(III) Ukrainian
Ukraine has zero real friends. There were in the past, but now no one dares to make friends with him, but there are a lot of fake friends. The real enemy is also zero. Russia is considered a temporary enemy, and soon Belarus may become a temporary enemy.
A country like Ukraine is just a pawn, with weak national strength and no historical grudges. It was not a mortal enemy, but it was a person who was trying to die.
(IV) EU countries
There are actually quite a lot of friends in EU countries, because they are like rich people and livestock, and everyone feels good about him. The disadvantage is that it is too indulgent to do bad things in the United States and sometimes it is an accomplice.
Russia does not want to regard EU countries as enemies, it is EU countries that voluntarily make enemies. EU countries are really too artificial, and they are their own choices to be poor, disabled and die.
(V) Major Middle East powers and other
Saudi Arabia leads Middle East oil-producing countries to strategically coordinate with Russia. First, Saudi Arabia hates Biden very much, second, it has suffered from the United States for a long time, and third, it must ensure that Russia can stand it.
Iran, North Korea, and Syria are lone heroes (also called orphans), and they all have strategic coordination with Russia. The reason is the same as Saudi Arabia. The difference is that in addition to hating Biden, they also hate Trump very much.
Türkiye is unpredictable and is generally strategically coordinated with Russia. The purpose is: First, to try to gain profits, and second, to hope that the United States will decline quickly and become a small overlord across Asia and Europe.
(VI) Oriental powers
may have comprehensive strategic cooperation.
or trade war technology war opponents, think too well about you.
6. The two lines of vertical and horizontal light and dark
A bright line is shown by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. They are all on the table, whether it is an enemy or a friend, everyone can see it.
A dark line, the core is Russia, Saudi Arabia, US Republican and Trump Group, and the periphery is Belarus, Iran, North Korea and some Middle East oil-producing countries. A big game is being brewed. The nearest goal is to defeat the Democratic Party and Biden in the US midterm elections in November, and the medium-term goal is to take office in the next US election.
means one is to use a new round of offensive to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, to disintegrate the Ukrainian army, to embarrass Biden and disappoint American voters; the second means to "OPEC+" reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day, further push up oil prices, push up US inflation, and make life more difficult for American civilians, to curse Biden for being incompetent.
In general, it is to lower the Democratic votes, let the Democratic Party lose control of the two houses, and change the direction of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
7. Major events may happen in the near future
In early November, there will be big moves in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is holding its big moves. Ukraine should be more at ease, , Kiev, should be more at ease. Please refer to the two attached pictures.
