(Original title: Big news! European and American stock markets fell again, G7 threatened, the first batch of German troops arrived, when will the Ukraine-Russia crisis be cleared? Buffett , Bridgewater , Hillhouse's latest shareholding trends were exposed)
Ukraine's tension is spreading to the global capital market.
Under the tense atmosphere, the Russian stock market, which is at the center of the storm, was the first to be hit. The Russian RTS index once plummeted by more than 5% during the trading session on February 14; the Russian government bond market also encountered a selling wave, with the Russian benchmark 10-year government bond yield exceeding 10%, the first time since February 2016; German DAX index , French CAC 40 index, and European Stock 50 index once fell by more than 3%.
According to the latest foreign media reports, the G7 Finance Ministers stated that Russia's military assembly on the Ukrainian border is serious concern and that they are prepared to implement economic and financial sanctions collectively, which will have a huge and direct impact on the Russian economy. British Prime Minister Johnson said so far there is no sign that Russia will ease tensions with Ukraine, which is highly likely to invade Ukraine this week.
Tension atmosphere is spreading among Ukraine. According to overseas media reports, the wealthiest group of Ukraine is collectively "escape" from Ukraine. On the 13th alone, about 20 chartered planes and private planes took off from the capital Kiev .
But the situation seems to have turned around. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia can consider continuing to hold talks with the United States and NATO . Putin responded to Lavrov's proposal and said "Okay". After the news was released, Russian and European stock markets rebounded to a certain extent.
Global stock markets are facing tests
The situation in Ukraine that continues to ferment has once caused panic in the global market.
First of all, the Russian stock market, which is at the center of the storm, suffered a sharp drop. On February 14, the Russian RTS index once plummeted by more than 5%, and as of the closing of the day, the decline was still close to 3%; the Russian MOEX index once fell by more than 4% during the session, and as of the closing, the decline was more than 1.8%.
The Russian government bond market also encountered a wave of selling, with the yield on Russia's benchmark 10-year government bonds exceeding 10%, the first time since February 2016.
htmlOn the afternoon of February 14, after opened in , the stock markets of various countries fell collectively, with the German DAX index, French CAC 40 index and European Stoke 50 index falling by more than 3%. As of the close, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed down 1.83%, the lowest since three consecutive days until January 25, with the national stock indexes of Germany, France and Italy all closed down more than 2%.
On the evening of February 14, after the opening of the US stock market, the main indexes also weakened collectively. As of the close, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.49%, and the Nasdaq closed down by 0.23 points. S&P and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell for three consecutive days, giving back all gains since January 28.
2-14 Asian trading session, the stock markets of China, Japan and South Korea also weakened collectively. The three major indexes of A shares collectively closed green, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 1%; the Nikkei 225 index fell 2% in early trading, closing down 2.23%, and the Eastern Stock Index closed down 1.63%; the South Korean Kospi index closed down 1.57%; the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Asia-Pacific Stock Index except the Japanese market fell 0.92%.
At the same time, the market's panic index is also soaring. In addition, according to market research institution IHS MARKIT, Ukrainian 5-year credit default swap rose to more than 1,000 basis points, with a default probability of more than 42%.
It is worth noting that natural gas is the focus of this crisis. On February 14, Netherlands TTF benchmark natural gas futures jumped 14% during the day to 88 euro /mWh, reaching the highest level since January 31; Germany's electricity price soared 11% in March to 177 €/mWh.
In addition, international oil prices soared again, WTI's March crude oil futures rose 2.5% to US$95.46 per barrel, the first time since 2014 that it rose above US$95. Brent 4 crude oil futures closed up 2.2% at $96.48 per barrel, setting a new high since October 2014.
On the afternoon of February 14, Beijing time, according to the Jerusalem Post, citing Reuters , the G7 Finance Ministers issued a joint statement saying that they expressed "serious concern" about Russia's military assembly on the Ukrainian border.The statement also warned that “any further military aggression against Ukraine will be responded quickly, coordinated and strongly” and prepared for collective economic and financial sanctions that would have a huge and direct impact on the Russian economy.
14 On the evening of 14, British Prime Minister Johnson said that so far, there is no sign that Russia will ease tensions with Ukraine, and Russia is very likely to invade Ukraine this week.
In addition, Global Network quoted Reuters as saying that a German military aircraft carrying reinforcements landed at Kaunas Airport in Lithuania on the 14th, carrying about 70 soldiers, including artillery troops from all over Germany, reconnaissance unit and medical personnel. More personnel are expected to arrive in the area this week.
But the situation seems to have turned around. On the evening of February 14, Beijing time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia could consider continuing negotiations with the United States and NATO. Putin responded to Lavrov's proposal and said "Okay." After the news was released, Russian and European stock markets both saw a slight surge.
Rich people "escape" Ukraine
In fact, since last Friday, the global market has begun to be stimulated by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the selling of risky assets has intensified. The Nasdaq Comprehensive Index plummeted by nearly 3%; safe-haven assets rose sharply, and international oil prices once hit a seven-and-a-half-year high.
In the past weekend, the situation became complicated again. The huge incitement from the United States has made the market tense again, which once aroused high vigilance from many countries around the world. More than 10 countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand , etc., called on their citizens to leave Ukraine.
In the early morning of February 13, Beijing time, US President Biden and Russian President Putin held an electricity junction on the situation in Ukraine for about an hour. However, according to foreign media reports, the call failed to make a breakthrough. Biden warned on the phone that if Russia invades Ukraine, the United States will respond decisively and quickly exert serious consequences on Russia; Putin responded that the US warning to Russia had reached a "absurd" level, making the situation tense again.
On the 13th local time, the Ukrainian Presidential Palace announced that Ukrainian President Zelensky invited Biden to visit Kiev in the next few days while talking to US President Biden that day, and said, "This will be crucial to stabilizing the situation, which will be a strong signal and will help easing the situation."
At the same time, Zelensky emphasized in the phone that any escalation of the situation in Ukraine should be stopped, and pointed out that the Ukrainian capital Kiev and other cities will ensure security, and Ukraine supports a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
But according to CNN, citing U.S. officials, the chance of Biden's visit is minimal. According to Russian Satellite News Agency, Ukrainian ambassador to the UK said Kiev "probably" agrees not to join NATO to avoid war.
According to AFP , on the 14th local time, German Chancellor Scholz arrived in Kiev to conduct crisis negotiations with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
Tension atmosphere is spreading among Ukraine. According to overseas network comprehensive Russian TV today, in recent days, the wealthiest group of Ukraine is collectively "escape" from Ukraine. On the 13th, about 20 chartered planes and private planes took off from the capital Kiev in one day on the 13th.
According to reports, one of the private planes that left on the 13th belonged to Ukrainian richest man Rinat Akmetov. Viktor Pinchuk, the second richest man in Ukraine and steel giant, left Ukraine at the end of January. The oligarch who fled Ukraine in recent days includes politician businessman Vadim Nowitzki, who has assets of $1.3 billion, and Oleksander Yaroslavski, the ninth-place list of Ukraine's richest people.
In addition, some parliamentarians are also eager to leave Ukraine. Prague Ukraine quoted sources as saying that opposition lawmakers and joint businessman Igor Abramovich booked a private plane with 50 people and planned to travel to Vienna, Austria.
However, some "escape" people mentioned by foreign media have denied the above statement.
On February 13th local time, Polish Minister of Internal Affairs and Administration Kaminsky said through social media that Poland has been making arrangements and arrangements for Ukrainian refugees to influx into the country, and the Polish government has made relevant preparations.
Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the situation in Ukraine
On February 14, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin presided over a regular press conference. A reporter asked questions about the development of the situation in Ukraine. " New Minsk Agreement " is a series of measures to implement the " Minsk Agreement " signed by representatives of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia in 2015 to implement the " Minsk Agreement Middle School" in the capital of Belarus, , aiming to achieve a military ceasefire, political reform and national reconciliation in the eastern Ukraine region.
Wang Wenbin said that I am also willing to reiterate China's principled position on the Ukraine issue. Our position on the Ukraine issue is consistent and clear. To resolve the Ukraine issue, we must return to the origin of the "Neominsk Agreement". The "Neominsk Agreement" has been approved by the UN Security Council and is a basic political document recognized by all parties and should be implemented in a practical manner. All parties should promote the comprehensive resolution of the Ukrainian crisis and related issues through dialogue and negotiation.
Wang Wenbin said that we call on all parties to remain rational and not to stimulate tensions and hype the crisis.
A reporter asked, the US Embassy in Ukraine is evacuating its staff. Does China have relevant plans?
Wang Wenbin said that the Chinese embassy and consulate in Ukraine is currently working normally. The Chinese embassy in Ukraine has issued a consular reminder to guide local Chinese citizens and institutions, closely monitor changes in the situation in Ukraine, and enhance security awareness. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Embassy in Ukraine will continue to maintain close contact with Chinese citizens and institutions in Ukraine, provide timely consular protection and assistance, and effectively safeguard the safety and legitimate rights and interests of enterprises.
US chips are facing crisis
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has made the global semiconductor industry increasingly nervous.
On February 11, local time, Reuters quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that White House has warned the US chip industry to promote diversification of supply chains in order to prevent Russia from taking retaliatory measures against the threat of US export control and prevent the US from obtaining key raw materials for chips.
US electronic market research agency Techcet pointed out that semiconductor manufacturers are highly dependent on special raw materials such as C4F6 (hexafluorobutadiene), neon, palladium, etc. from Russia and Ukraine. More than 90% of the US semiconductor-grade neon gas supply comes from Ukraine, and 35% of palladium comes from Russia.
Among them, neon gas plays an important role in the chip etching process, and neon is a by-product produced during Russian steel manufacturing. It is a purification operation by Ukrainian companies. Ukrainian supplies neon gas accounts for about 70% of the world.
In addition to neon gas, Ukraine also supplies about 40% of the world's kr gas . Krgy gas is used in KrF laser like neon gas, which is mainly used in the mature process of 8-inch wafers 250~130nm.
And Russian palladium is also an important raw material for semiconductor . It is mainly used in the packaging process and is used in the manufacturing of sensors and memory. It is understood that Russia accounts for about 40% of the global palladium supply.
Once the situation in Ukraine and Russia worsens, it may intensify the supply of neon, krypton, palladium and other materials. According to data from the U.S. Trade Commission (ITC), during the tense situation in the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, neon prices once rose by 600%.
Before this, neon gas prices had seen a sharp rise. According to Baichuan Yingfu price tracking data, my country's neon gas (content 99.99%) price has risen from 400 yuan/cubic meter in October 2021 to more than 1,600 yuan/cubic meter now.
htmlOn February 13, Guojin Securities released a research report on the semiconductor materials industry, saying that Ukraine-Russia relations are tense and geopolitical risks may affect the supply of semiconductor materials.Buffett, Bridgewater, Hillhouse's latest holdings exposed
Hillhouse recently announced its holdings data for the fourth quarter of 2021.
As of the end of the fourth quarter, Hillhouse held 76 stocks in the US stock market, and the top ten heavily held stocks were BeiGene , On Ampu, Legend Bio, SaiFT, Tianjing Bio, JD , SEA, DoorDash, iQiyi, and Ideal Auto, of which 6 are Chinese stocks listed in . In the fourth quarter of last year, it increased its holdings in Ideal Auto and Xiaopeng Motor , of which it significantly increased its holdings in Ideal Auto 3.92 million shares.
On the same day, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway submitted a 13F form to the US SEC. The documents show that Berkshire Hathaway's total holdings in the fourth quarter of last year were approximately US$330.952 billion. Apple still holds 887 million shares, accounting for 47.61% of Berkshire Hathaway's total position .
Berkshire Hathaway holds a total of 46 targets in Q4, increasing holdings of 4 targets, reducing holdings of 8 targets, adding 3 new targets, and clearing out 2 targets.
It is worth noting that Berkshire Hathaway's top ten heavily held stocks have not changed much, among which Chevron continues to receive a significant increase in holdings, ranking among the top ten. In addition to Chevron, Berkshire Hathaway also increased its holdings in Liberty SiriusXM Series A, Restoration Hardware and Floor Decor in Q4.
In terms of new stock , Berkshire Hathaway entered the game company Activision Blizzard in Q4, with a total holding of 14,658,121 shares.
Bridgewater Fund, a subsidiary of Ri Dalio's well-known investor, also submitted its U.S. stock holdings as of the end of the fourth quarter to the US SEC yesterday. The document shows that Bridgewater Fund's overall holdings reached US$17.202 billion in Q4, a decrease of 5.81% from the previous quarter, and the concentration of the top ten heavily held stocks was 35.59%.
According to statistics from the 13F data platform Whalewisdom, in Bridgewater's Q4 holdings, a total of 299 targets were increased, 292 targets were reduced, 137 new targets were newly added, and 89 targets were cleared.
Among the top ten heavily held stocks, consumer stocks account for half of the market, and Chinese stocks listed in the United States, Alibaba continues to receive Bridgewater’s shareholding.
During the fourth quarter reporting period, the five largest targets in Bridgewater's shareholding increased by all involved retail and daily consumer goods businesses, namely Procter & Gamble, Pepsi, Johnson & Johnson, Costco and Coca-Cola .
