On October 20, British Prime Minister Tras announced his resignation as the leader of the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party once again started internal elections. Before the next party leader was elected, Tras still exercised the power of the prime minister. When Tras came to power, he was known as " Iron Lady ", claiming to follow the example of former Prime Minister, Mrs. Thatcher to carry out reforms. As a result, after 45 days of taking office, he ended up resigning voluntarily and was only awarded the title of "the shortest-lived Prime Minister in history". The previous record was George Canning, who died of illness for four months in office. The speed at which Tras stepped down was "first-class", and it is probably no one to come. So, why is the Trass government so short-lived?
On October 20, 2022, London, UK, British Prime Minister Trass delivered a speech at , No. 10 Downing Street, , and announced his resignation. Pictures in this article People's Vision
Radical tax cut policy failed
The failure of radical economic policies implemented by Tras is the main reason for its rapid resignation. In the previous election for the party leader, Tras advocated tax cuts, stabilize public spending, curb inflation, and promote economic development. During the election process, although the policies proposed by Tras were a bit radical, they were not extreme. After becoming Prime Minister, Tras ordered Chancellor Kwoten to quickly introduce extremely radical tax cuts. The main goal of this policy is to reduce taxes on a large scale, release the scale of private funds, promote economic development by giving more social capital, set the medium-term growth target of the UK economy at 2.5%, and try to ease social conflicts in the UK.
This radical economic policy has been controversial, and the opposition Labor Party claims it is a reward plan for the rich because the reduction of the maximum personal income tax rate only benefits the rich. The UK financial market was responding fiercely, with British Treasury bonds being sold, and Bank of England had to vigorously repurchase to stabilize the bond market. Even so, Tras is not on the verge of stepping down. The biggest problem is that Tras decided to make a sharp turn after seeing the domestic response to the tax cut plan, which was the fatal reason that prompted her to step down. Tras must find out the scapegoat for policy "failure", and Chancellor Kwoten must be responsible for this, and former Foreign Secretary Hunter replaced Kwoten's position. Hunter rejected all Kwoten's policies, and even the energy bill freeze policy to relieve social pressure was wasted.
Tras changed his orders every day on the major issue of economic policy. Although in her opinion, she was a quick cut and committed to the long-term development of the British economy, she did not first eliminate the fire of the short-term economic crisis, that is, curb inflation. The "Plum" of economic development cannot solve the "urgency" and "thirst" of reducing inflation. What's more, tax cuts will inevitably lead to a decrease in fiscal revenue, so where does the funds come from? The government can only borrow money, but this model is unsustainable. Before the "cake" to solve other problems through economic development has been drawn, Tras personally took the initiative and destroyed it invisibly. The Conservative Party not only lost its prestige in front of the people of the country when House of Commons faced Labour Party , but also in front of the people of the country.
On October 19, 2022, London, UK, British Prime Minister Tras spoke at the Prime Minister's Q&A meeting in the House of Commons.
Poor control ability
Tras was unable to control the bureau within the Conservative Party and was forced to step down. Tras hastily formed a cabinet, and internal running-in has not yet been carried out. In order to clear the main responsibility, Trass asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwoten to "take the blame" and kicked him out. Hunter, who took over, did not make any compensation and blindly denied it. This is also the reason why Tras used improperly, and more importantly, no one was available.
After replacing the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Tras tried to stabilize the political situation. However, she was frequently attacked in the House of Commons and did not fight back strongly, mainly because she lacked eloquent talent and could not give reasonable reasons to questioners in the House of Commons debate. As more and more criticisms of his policies are criticized, Tras is unable to show the corresponding charm of the party leader and leader. Just as Tras is looking for a scapegoat, the Conservative Party is also looking for a scapegoat to safeguard the image of the ruling party. Poll data to save the Conservative Party’s decline by letting Tras step down has also become a practical option for the Conservative Party.
htmlOn 19, Home Secretary Braverman submitted a resignation letter, which was to take the blame for Tras. Braverman opposed Tras's cancellation of tax cuts, believing that doing so was a violation of the initial policy proposition. Perhaps the more important reason is that she was dissatisfied with Trass's firing of Chancellor Kwoten. Tlas was eager to change, resulting in the replacement of two major cabinet ministers within a week. Although Tras said he would not resign when facing the Labor Party attack, he was no longer able to do so and was unable to turn things around.The Conservative Party has different opinions within the Conservative Party
There are major differences in the Conservative Party's internal elections, and the legality of Tras's governance is insufficient, which is also the reason why he stepped down sooner or later.
The Conservative Party’s internal election leader is different from the general election. The election process is mainly divided into two stages. The first stage is to select two candidates from the Conservative Party members in the House of Lower House, and the second stage is to vote among the Conservative Party members across the country. According to the usual practice, the candidates elected by members of the Conservative Lower House of Representatives have been identified, and those who receive the most votes can generally be elected.
But in the previous election of party leader, the first choice of Conservative Lower House members was former Chancellor Sunak, with 137 votes, while Tras had only 113 votes. However, in the second stage of the national Conservative Party member vote, Tras won by more than 20,000 votes. Obviously, Conservative Party members across the country used votes to reject the preferences of Conservative MPs in the House of Representatives, and sent the Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister Trass not favored by political elites.
Therefore, as soon as Tras came to power, he faced great pressure from the Conservative Lower House MPs because she was not a candidate for MPs. The opinions of the Conservative Party members across the country and the Conservative Party elites in the House of Representatives are disagreeable. The members of the House of Representatives have once again rejected the political preferences of the Conservative Party members across the country. This can be said to be linked and connected by cause and effect. The fall of Trass once again proves that there are huge cracks within the Conservative Party, which exist not only between Conservative Lower House members, but also between Conservative MPs and Conservative Party members across the country.
can be foreseen that no matter who comes to power next, the cracks within the Conservative Party cannot be bridged. Perhaps, the opposition Labor Party can take office and the ruling Conservative Party step down to slowly enhance the cohesion within the Conservative Party.
British Secretary of Defense Wallace.
Who will become the next prime minister?
Next, if nothing unexpected happens, the Conservative Party will once again start the internal election leader mode. The first thing is to determine who runs for election. Former Prime Minister Johnson Whether or not he can run for election is an extremely uncertain factor in this election, because Johnson still has influence within the Conservative Party. Johnson survived the Conservative Party’s distrust motion in June this year and voluntarily resigned in July due to missed employment. Logically speaking, he shouldn't run for prime minister anymore, but the Conservatives are indeed extremely chaotic and no one is available, which also gives Johnson a lot of room for opportunity. But whether Johnson can once again get full support from Conservative Lower House members is still a question.
If the current Secretary of Defense Wallace runs for the election, his chances of winning are higher. Wallace has served as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Secretary of State for Security and Economic Crime, Secretary of Defense, etc. Since July 2019, he has served as Secretary of Defense in both the Johnson Cabinet and the Trass Cabinet, with good stability. For British politics, Wallace can play a stabilizer to a certain extent. What's more, in the international situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the world pattern reorganization, if someone with defense experience elects to serve as prime minister, it can effectively deal with major issues in the security field in the future.
Former Chancellor Sunak, Lower House leader Modant and others are likely to run for election, and they have their own supporters within the Conservative Party. It depends on their personal intention to run for election. There will also be other runners or political newcomers participating in the election. However, the chairman of the Conservative Party's 1922 committee has announced new campaign rules, and candidates must be supported by 100 MPs to be eligible for election. If two candidates run, members of the Conservative Party across the country may vote online and hope to elect a new leader by next Friday, October 28. The Conservative Party’s approach aims to quickly end the chaos brought about by the fall of Tras.
Of course, the possibility of early election is also very high.The ruling Conservative Party will not easily choose to go ahead with an election, which is a measure by the opposition Labor Party to vigorously promote the solution to the current chaos in the political arena. Judging from the rising poll data of the Labor Party, once the election is early, the Conservative Party is likely to lose. Moreover, even if the Conservative Party elects the leader through internal elections, it still faces pressure from an early election, and the Labor Party can still wait for an opportunity to launch a case of distrust of the Conservative government. Labour leader Stamer is fully prepared. In instigating an early election, it will only take a year or two to take office. British politics may usher in a period of stability.
(Li Guanjie, a researcher at the think tank of the British Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional Countries, Shanghai University of Foreign Studies)
