On Friday (Friday), at the beginning of the Asian market, US oil trading was around $89 per barrel; oil prices on Thursday bottomed out and rebounded, closing up nearly 2.5%, due to the low level of diesel inventories before winter, triggering buying and reversing the decline after crude oil and gasoline inventories were higher than expected. Saudi and the United States faced tit-for-tat about the reasons for OPEC+ production cuts. Saudi Aramco warned that oil prices would soar again, and the US dollar rose and fell back to , which also boosted oil prices.
html within 4 days focus on the monthly retail sales rate in the United States in September, the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October, and the speeches of officials from the Federal Reserve .
Positive factors affecting oil prices
[Investors short cover strong rebound in US stocks]
US stock market rose sharply on Thursday, with the three major indexes rising by all exceeding 2%, due to technical support and investor short cover, driving the market to rebound strongly after a sharp drop earlier.
In today's sharp reversal, S&P 500 jumped nearly 194 points from intraday lows to highs, the index's largest intraday point increase since January 24. Financial and energy stocks led the gains in each sector of the S&P 500.
After data showed that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, the market fell due to an estimated increase of 8.1%. "People may be net shorts before the CPI report was released, and they saw that the report was negative, so they started to cover shorts." Some strategists also pointed out that the S&P 500 index has some technical support around 3500 points. "This is due to technical factors," Lip said, adding that the recent sharp sell-off in the stock market could mean "bad news may have been digested. Entering the earnings season, what we really need is that things are not as bad as expected." The big Wall Street bank will report results on Friday, opening the third-quarter earnings season, and investors are waiting to see how the high interest rate environment affects their profits. Wobolian rose after the company's fourth-quarter earnings report was better than expected. New York Stock Exchange stocks rose and fell by 2.24:1; Nasdaq Exchange 2.10:1.
[U.S. distillate oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels]
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by nearly 10 million barrels last week, while distillate oil inventories fell sharply after the government released its reserves again.
data showed that crude oil inventories rose by 9.9 million barrels to 439.1 million barrels in the week ended October 7, while analysts surveyed by Reuters expected an increase of 1.8 million barrels.
The growth in commercial inventories mainly comes from the 7.7 million barrels of crude oil released by the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Although there is no release of these reserves, inventory has also increased.
distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell 4.9 million barrels to 106.1 million barrels, the lowest since May, while an expected decline of 2 million barrels. "The ongoing concerns about diesel are justified, as inventory drops by another 4.8 million barrels," said Tony Headrick, an energy market analyst at
CHSHedging. Inventories of
distillate oil have fallen, and demand for heating oil will rise as winter arrives. Inventories of this fuel have been tight due to large global demand and refineries in the United States and France.
Government data shows that U.S. oil product exports rose to 7.1 million barrels per day last week, reaching an all-time high. U.S. refineries have been operating at an average level above this time of year to boost inventory, and their refining activity fell last week. The EIA said that refineries’ daily refining volume fell by 278,000 barrels per day last week, while refinery utilization fell by 1.4 percentage points, accounting for 89.9% of overall capacity. Gasoline inventories rose by 2 million barrels this week to 209.5 million barrels, while the expected decrease was 1.8 million barrels.
[Saudi Aramco warns oil prices to soar again]
According to Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil producer, the global oil market is still tense. This is not a good sign for a world that is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels."Idle capacity is very low nowadays," said Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco. "If Asia reopens, the economy begins to improve, or the aviation industry begins to demand additional aviation fuel, this idle capacity will be eroded."
Nasser warns that oil prices may soar again soon. "When you erode idle capacity, the world should be worried. There will be no problem, any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere in the world."
[Russian Vice Prime Minister Novak believes that oil prices will be the same as the current level]
Russian Vice Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that he believes oil prices will be the same as the current level. Novak said at an energy forum in Moscow that oil prices are difficult to predict and uncertainty remains, but crude oil trading in 2023 may be around $100 a barrel.
[Saudi and the United States are tit for tat about the reasons for OPEC+ production cuts]
Saudi Arabia refuted criticism of OPEC+'s decision to cut production last week despite US opposition, believing that it "has no factual basis". On Thursday, it said that Washington 's request to postpone the production cuts by one month will have negative economic consequences.
White House fought back on this on Thursday, saying it submitted an analysis report to Saudi Arabia, showing that production cuts could damage the world economy, and alleged that Saudi Arabia put pressure on other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the vote. Officials from both countries are expected to discuss the issue soon.
This back and forth quarrel has made the relationship between these two countries that have maintained the "energy for security" alliance for decades even colder.
[ NATO will strengthen European air defense forces]
The Russian-appointed governor of Khlsong Prefecture in southern Ukraine advised local residents to take their children to safe areas, one of the most obvious signs so far, indicating that Moscow is losing control of the areas it claims to have annexed.
Chief Executive Vladimir Saldo, appointed by Russia, said in the video message: "Cities in the Khlsson region are attacked by missile every day. Therefore, the leadership of the Khlsson administration decided to give the Khlsson family the option to go to other parts of the Russian Federation to rest and study."
Khlsson is one of the four occupied Ukrainian provinces that Russia claims to have annexed, and is arguably the most strategically important province. Khlsson controls both the only land route to , the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia seized in 2014, and also the estuary of Dnieper River. Ukrainian troops have broken through Russia's frontlines there since early October, the biggest achievement in the southern region since the beginning of the war. Since then, they have been advancing rapidly along the West Bank, aiming to cut off supply lines and potential escape routes from thousands of Russian troops.
NATO Secretary-General Stottenberg said Thursday after a two-day meeting of defense ministers that NATO will not give up support for Ukraine because of Moscow's nuclear threat .
At the NATO meeting held in Brussels , allies announced plans to jointly strengthen European air defense using Patriots and other missile systems.
[The repair of the "North Stream" will be more than one year]
Gazprom CEO Miller said on the 13th local time that in order to repair the damaged pipeline of the "North Stream", most of the pipelines may need to be replaced, and the repair work will last for more than one year.
negative factors affecting oil prices
[OPEC+ cuts oil supply may put the world in recession]
International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday that the decision to control production by OPEC+ last week pushed up oil prices and could push global economy toward recession. "The continued deterioration of the economy and the rise in oil prices caused by OPEC+ supply cuts are slowing down global oil demand."
IEA also stated in its monthly oil report: "Under the influence of ongoing inflationary pressure and the rate hike, the rise in oil prices may become a turning point in the global economy, which is already on the brink of recession."”
[U.S. COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Extended 90 Days]
According to the Capitol Hill newspaper on October 13 local time, the Biden administration has extended the COVID-19 public health emergency in the United States by 90 days to cope with the possible surge in cases in winter. White House health officials urged people to receive the latest targeted variant diseases The poisonous new crown vaccine , and said that the degree of the surge in winter cases depends on the preventive measures taken by the people and the vaccination rate.
[The probability of the Federal Reserve hike of interest rates by 75 basis points in November rose to 96.3%]
According to CME's "Feder Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve hike of interest rates by 50 basis points in November to the range of 3.50%-3.75% is 3. .7%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 96.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 0%. By December, the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 1.0%, the probability of raising interest rates by 125 basis points is 27.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 150 basis points is 71.5%.
Overall, with the advent of winter, the low level of diesel inventory has caused buying to encourage oil Prices rebound, NATO will strengthen European air defense forces, and geopolitical tensions continue to escalate; Saudi Arabia and the United States are tit for tat about the reasons for OPEC+ production cuts, Saudi Aramco warns that oil prices will soar again, with multiple positive factors, and oil prices are expected to return to above the 90 mark in the short term. As the weekend approaches, pay attention to geopolitical tensions, and news related to Saudi Arabia and the United States regarding OPEC+ production cuts.
This article is from Huitong.com
