At the beginning of the Asian market on Monday, September 19, US oil trading was around $85.91 per barrel; oil prices rose slightly last Friday, after a leak at the Iraqi Basra terminal seemed to limit crude oil supply. But oil prices are still falling on weekly lines as fears a sharp rate hike in will curb global economic growth and demand for fuel. This week the market will focus on the Fed resolution.
negative factors affecting oil prices
[The number of active oil and natural gas drilling rigs increased last week]
Basra Oil Company said that oil exports from Iraq's Basra oil terminal are gradually recovering, and were suspended due to a leak incident on Friday, and the situation has been controlled. "This undoubtedly caused panic in the market for a while, because the initial news was that these oils would not be available for a period of time," said John Kilduff, partner at
Again Capital LLC. "The number of active oil and gas rigs increased last week, for the first time in three weeks. The relatively high price of crude oil encourages some companies to increase drilling activities, mainly in the Permian Basin.
[University of Michigan, September, consumer inflation expectations for one year fell to the lowest in one year]
data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan, the US consumer confidence index for September, was lower than the estimate, but higher than the end of last month, the one-year inflation expectations fell to the lowest in one year, and the five-year inflation expectations fell to the lowest in 14 months. The initial value of the consumer confidence index in September was 59.5, while the Reuters survey estimated it to be 60.0, and the final value of August was 58.2. The initial value of consumer inflation expectations for one year fell to 4.6%, the lowest since September 2021, with an August final value of 4.8%; the initial value of five-year inflation expectations was 2.8%, the lowest since July 2021, with an August final value of 2.9%.
[Goldman Sachs lowered U.S. GDP forecast]
Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the 2023 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and expects the Fed to tighten its policies more aggressively for the rest of the year and believes that this will drive unemployment rate higher than its previous forecast. Goldman Sachs said it now expects U.S. GDP to grow by 1.1% next year, and previously expected a growth rate of 1.5% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the end of 2023.
[The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September is 82%]
According to CME's "Feder Observation": the probability of the Federal Reserve hike rate by 75 basis points in September is 82%, and the probability of 100 basis points is 18%; the probability of a cumulative interest rate by 125 basis points by November is 35.2%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate by 150 basis points is 54.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate by 175 basis points is 10.3%.
[ US stock hits a two-month lowest]
US stock market closed lower last Friday, hitting its two-month lowest. FedEx issued a warning about the global economy is about to slow down, further pushing investors to buy safe-haven assets at the end of the volatile week.
All three major U.S. stock indexes hit their lowest levels since mid-July, with S&P 500 closing below 3900 points, a support level that has been closely watched. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit their biggest weekly percentage decline since June. This week, the market was plagued by inflation concerns, imminent rate hikes and ominous economic warning signs.
JPMorgan Managing Director David? "It's a tough week and it feels like Halloween is ahead of schedule, and we are facing a toxic background of high inflation, high interest rates and low growth, which is not a good thing for the stock market and the bond market," Carter said. "History Aversion has shifted from brewing to boiling after FedEx withdraws its earnings forecast late last Thursday on the grounds that global demand has weakened. ? Earlier, both World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the global economy was about to slow down.
, a large amount of mixed economic data led by a higher-than-expected inflation report (CPI), consolidated expectations for a rate hike of at least 75 basis points at the end of this week's Fed's monetary policy meeting. Carter added, "While the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates this week, there are huge uncertainties and concerns about future interest rate hikes, and the Fed is doing what needs to be done.And after some pain, the market and the economy will heal themselves. ”
CME’s FedWatch tool shows that financial markets have expected the Fed to launch a 18% chance of a huge rate hike on Wednesday.
S&P 500 index nine of the 11 major sectors closed lower, with energy and industrial stocks falling the most percentage. ? The Dow Jones Transportation Index, which is regarded as a barometer of economic health, has plummeted by 5.1%.
[ Putin denies that Russia and Europe’s capabilities Source crisis has anything to do]
Putin denied that Russia has anything to do with the energy crisis in Europe. He said that if EU wants more natural gas, sanctions should be lifted to prevent the opening of Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Putin said: "It is important that if you have a strong will, if this is so difficult for you, lift the sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which is 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, and as long as you press the button, everything will start to move forward. "
[Kuwait Petroleum Company says that if OPEC+ makes a request, it can increase oil production]
Kuwait Petroleum Company CEO Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah said that if the OPEC+ mechanism makes a request, Kuwait can increase oil production. Sabah also said that the current market demand for oil has not changed, but given the current concerns that the global economy may fall into a recession, the future demand for oil is full of uncertainty
[Global Monkeypox has exceeded 60,000 confirmed cases]
September 17, WHO html l2 released the latest report on the global monkeypox epidemic. From January 1 to September 15, 103 WHO member states around the world reported a total of 60,320 confirmed cases of monkeypox and 525 suspected cases.
positive factors affecting oil prices
[ Zelensky believes it is too early to talk about the end of the war]
Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Russia of saying that although the Ukrainian army quickly recovered its territory this month, it is too early to say that the trend of the war is turning around. Zelensky praised the Ukrainian army for having a rapid counterattack, but downplayed the hint that the war was entering a certain ending. He said, "It is too early to talk about the end of this war." ”
Zelensky also said that he would support the idea of reopening Russia's export of ammonia through Ukraine only if Moscow returns prisoners of war. Kremlin quickly rejected the idea.
Britain said on Sunday that Russia has expanded its crackdown on Ukraine's civil infrastructure in the past week and may further expand its target range.
German Ministry of Economic Affairs said it would put Russia RosneftDeutschland, a German subsidiary of the Sri Lankan National Petroleum Corporation, is under the custody of the Federal Network Bureau of the industry regulator, and takes over the Schwett refinery under the company. This move may arouse retaliation from Russia.
[Russian trade delegation arrives at Iran , and will hold hundreds of economic and trade negotiations]
September 18, according to Iranian media reports, a large Russian trade delegation has arrived in the capital of Iran Tehran , the delegation has more than 100 members and comes from many large Russian companies. According to the plan, from September 19, the Russian trade delegation will hold 750 business meetings with Iran. Member companies of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, mainly the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, will participate in the negotiations, covering food and cereal trade, industrial equipment and machinery, pharmaceutical and medical equipment, glass and crystal, metal industry, telecommunications and radio systems, energy and other fields. Previously, Russian President Putin and Iranian President Lehi were in H. tml1Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit met during the Summit, Putin said that he would send a large Russian trade delegation to Iran.
Overall, there is no sign of easing in geopolitical tensions, and the Ukrainian president believes it is too early to talk about the end of the war, and the support of the geopolitical situation on oil prices will continue. This week, oil prices will focus on the Federal Reserve's resolution. Under the influence of the strong US dollar, oil prices may remain volatile and short.
This article is from Huitong.com
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