On May 6, Tesla's 2021 impact report showed that by 2030, Tesla's goal is to sell 20 million electric vehicles per year. The institution pointed out that Tesla is not only the first new energy vehicle company in the industry to achieve continuous profitability, but is also further consolidating its first-mover advantage. Through price increase strategies and cost control, Tesla has continuously refreshed the industry ceiling, and the increase in its market share will also drive the development of the entire industrial chain.
Tonghuashun data shows that as of the close of May 6 Eastern Time, Tesla closed at $865.65 per share, down 0.87%, with a total market value of $896.822 billion.
Source: Tonghuashun
Achieve annual sales of 20 million electric vehicles in 2030
The report points out that Tesla’s goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy in the world. By 2030, Tesla's goal is to sell 20 million electric vehicles each year, a 20-fold increase from 940,000 annual sales in 2021; in terms of energy storage, Tesla plans to deploy 1,500GWh, more than 370 times higher than 4GWh in 2021.
Tesla said that if this milestone vehicle delivery can be achieved through continuous growth, Tesla's total fleet will exceed tens of millions by 2030, each vehicle can reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by several tons per year.
Tesla’s tens of millions of years of sales target is based on its high growth rate. According to the first quarter report of 2022, Tesla's total revenue increased by 81% year-on-year to US$18.756 billion, higher than the market's expectations of US$17.78 billion; net profit increased by 658% year-on-year to US$3.318 billion, higher than the market's expectations of US$2.156 billion; the gross profit margin of automobile sales reached 32.9%, far exceeding the average level of the automobile industry. In terms of delivery volume of
, in the first quarter of 2022, Tesla's electric vehicles delivered 310,048 and the output reached 305,407. The delivery volume and output in the same period last year were 184,800 and 180,338 respectively. Among them, in the first quarter, Tesla sold a total of 295,324 Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles, and delivered 14,724 Model S and Model X at the same time. The new Model S and Model X are the first to see hot sales in North America.
Tesla said that the growth in total revenue in the first quarter was due to the increase in vehicle delivery volume, the increase in average selling price of bicycles, and the growth of other parts of the business. The company can produce 1.5 million cars in 2022, and the output is expected to achieve a 60% growth.
Further expand production capacity
To achieve the annual sales target of 20 million vehicles, Tesla needs strong capacity support. "The problem we face is not limited demand, but limited production capacity." Musk said on the call.
Shanghai Super Factory is an important global production base for Tesla. Data shows that the vehicle delivery volume of Shanghai Super Factory in 2021 accounts for 51.7% of Tesla's global delivery volume in 2021. Recently, Tesla has also clarified its Shanghai factory expansion plan. The new factory is expected to produce Model 3 and Model Y models, with an annual production capacity of 450,000 vehicles. After the expansion of the new factory will help Tesla increase the total production capacity of its Shanghai factory to 1 million vehicles per year, becoming Tesla's "largest automobile export center" in the world.
In addition, recently, Tesla has been favoring two super factories in a row. On March 22, Tesla's German Super Factory was put into production and 30 Model Ys were delivered. According to the plan, the factory mainly produces Model Y, with a planned production capacity of 500,000 vehicles per year. On April 8, Tesla's Texas Super Factory was put into operation, and the first batch of Model Y models have been delivered, with an estimated annual production of 500,000 vehicles.
Based on Tesla's Shanghai factory expansion and production downstream of its Berlin and Austin factories, Kaiyuan Securities believes that Tesla's sales are expected to maintain a significant increase in 2022. At the same time, the company's price increase offsets the pressure on upstream raw material costs will further promote revenue growth. It is expected that the company's revenue in 2022 is expected to reach US$86.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%.
Kaoyuan Securities also pointed out that the launch of Tesla's Cybertruck and Semi heavy trucks in 2023 and the gradual climb of production capacity of factories around the world will continue to drive sales growth. It is expected that Tesla's revenue will be US$114.8 billion and US$140.5 billion from 2023 to 2024, respectively, corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 33% and 22% respectively.At the same time, Tesla's delivery volume is expected to maintain rapid growth from 2022 to 2024. It is expected that the company's automobile delivery volume will be 1.43 million, 1.93 million and 2.41 million respectively from 2022 to 2024, corresponding year-on-year growth rates will be 53%, 35%, and 25%, respectively.
Edited by: Zhang Jing
Original title: refreshes the industry ceiling! Tesla’s “ambition”: annual sales of electric vehicles in 2030 are 20 million! 20 times more than in 2021
Source: China Securities Journal
