Recently, the three major energy agencies of OPEC, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have released monthly reports and adjusted their demand forecasts, all of which have lowered global crude oil demand growth expectations due to concerns about economic recession. Affected by this news, as of October 12, 
OPEC lowered its demand forecast, the fourth time since April, due to the economic slowdown, the impact of epidemic prevention and control measures in Asia and the impact of high inflation. Global oil demand will increase by 2.64 million barrels per day in 2022, a decrease of 460,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast. Global crude oil demand in 2022 is expected to be 99.67 million barrels per day. The organization also lowered its demand growth forecast for next year, and expected the global crude oil demand growth rate to be 2.34 million barrels per day in 2023, a 360,000 barrels per day lower than previous expectations. Global crude oil demand in 2023 is expected to be 102.02 million barrels per day.
IEA believes that the world is struggling to cope with the worst global energy crisis in history, and rising oil prices may become the turning point for the global economy , which is already on the verge of recession. Global oil demand will drop by 340,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The IEA also significantly lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2022-23, lowering its global oil demand growth forecast for 2022 to 1.9 million barrels per day. It is believed that EU must find an alternative source of 1.3 million barrels per Japan-Japan crude oil imports before the ban comes into effect in December. In September, Russia's oil exports fell by 230,000 barrels per day to 7.5 million barrels per day, down 560,000 barrels from the pre-conflict level of Russia-Ukraine.
EIA also echoed OPEC's pessimistic tone and lowered expectations for output and demand. It is expected that the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2022 will be 2.12 million barrels per day, before 2.1 million barrels per day; it is expected that the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2023 will be 1.48 million barrels per day, before 1.97 million barrels per day; it is expected that the U.S. crude oil production will increase by 500,000 barrels per day in 2022, before 540,000 barrels per day; it is expected that the U.S. crude oil production will increase by 610,000 barrels per day in 2023, before 840,000 barrels per day; it is expected that the U.S. crude oil demand growth rate in 2022 will be 460,000 barrels per day, before 510,000 barrels per day; it is expected that the U.S. crude oil demand growth rate in 2023 will be 190,000 barrels per day, before 350,000 barrels per day.
Source: EIA
According to EIA data, global supply and demand have performed better this year than last year, but global crude oil demand is expected to be 99.79 million barrels per day in October, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47%, as the economic recession drags down demand growth.
To sum up, the three major institutions are cautious about the demand prospects, and this common position puts obvious pressure on oil prices. The global economic growth slowed down, and the frequent hikes of interest rates in many European and American countries in order to curb high inflation, the dollar index of continues to rise, coupled with the blow to the European economy of by the Russian-Ukraine war, both of which have caused negative suppression on commodity energy led by crude oil. Therefore, at present, although the bottom of oil prices is supported by OPEC+ production cuts, it is under short-term pressure in the environment of expected recession on the demand side.
