Key points:
● Social financing increased more than expected year-on-year, and the scale of credit became the main support
● Credit scale has improved significantly, but the differentiation of departmental structure still needs to be repaired
● Deposit current has remained stable, and capital liquidity is still abundant
● Looking forward to the future: Short-term social financing credit is still supported, and the long-term trend needs to pay attention to the epidemic and the trend of real estate
Content Summary
In September 2022, the scale of social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 627.4 billion yuan from the same period last year; new RMB loans were 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 810 billion yuan year-on-year. With the implementation of a number of policies on stabilizing growth, such as 600 billion yuan of policy-based open financial instruments, 200 billion yuan of equipment renovation special re-loans, and a limit of more than 500 billion yuan of special bonds, coupled with the concentrated release of the end-of-quarter effect, jointly supporting the significant improvement of the scale of social financing credit in September, but the differentiation of departmental structure still needs to be further repaired.
At the end of September 2022, the balance of narrow currency (M1) was 66.45 trillion yuan, and increased by 6.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous period; the balance of broad currency (M2) was 262.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period. As the policy of stabilizing growth this year is advanced and lasting than last year, and coupled with the impact of the low base effect, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 continued to run at a high level at the end of September, but deposit current and capital utilization still need to be further improved, especially the phenomenon of idle capital is still continuing.
official text
social financing increased by more than expected year-on-year, and the credit scale became the main support
in September 2022, a social financing scale of 3.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 627.4 billion yuan from the same period last year, far exceeding market expectations. Among them, RMB loans of 2571.9 billion yuan, an increase of 796.4 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main sub-item that supports the significant increase in the scale of social financing this month, while government bonds of 552.5 billion yuan, an increase of 254.1 billion yuan year-on-year, which has a significant drag on the scale of social financing this month.
: RMB loans increased significantly year-on-year in September. On the one hand, due to the implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth, the significant expansion of infrastructure construction has led to a rebound in the demand for financing for real entities. For example, a policy-based open financial instrument of 600 billion yuan, and a special re-loan for equipment renovation of 200 billion yuan; on the other hand, due to the poor performance of RMB loans at the beginning of the third quarter, such as RMB loans in August increased by 430.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and RMB loans increased by only 58.7 billion yuan in September, so credit issuance accumulated until the end of the quarter to centralized lending.
: Government bonds increased less year-on-year in September, mainly due to the misalignment of this year's fiscal front and last year's fiscal backward. At the same time, the limit of the special bonds proposed by the State Council in September to revitalize local balances since 2019 will be issued before the end of October, which is expected to provide support for social financing next month.
credit scale has improved significantly, but departmental structure differentiation still needs to be repaired
In September 2022, new RMB loans were 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 810 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, short-term loans 960.5 billion yuan, an increase of 456 billion yuan year-on-year; bill financing was -82.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2180 yuan year-on-year; medium- and long-term loans 1694.4 billion yuan, an increase of 532.9 billion yuan year-on-year. It can be seen that both short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans have improved significantly, jointly supporting the credit scale this month. Looking further by department, in September, household loans of 650.3 billion yuan were RMB 650.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 138.3 billion yuan, and institution loans of 191.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 937 billion yuan, indicating that the credit scale of enterprises and institutions has improved significantly, supporting the credit scale of this month, while the credit scale of residents is still relatively weak, which has a drag on the credit scale of this month. We predict that RMB loans will be 1.75 trillion yuan in September, lower than the actual RMB 720 billion, but the year-on-year increase will remain consistent, mainly underestimating the impact of short-term loans at the end of the quarter.
In terms of loans for residents' households, in September, the short-term loans of residents were 303.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1 billion yuan, and medium- and long-term loans of residents' households were 345.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of resident households, indicating that both short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans for residents' households are weak. The main reason is that on the one hand, the impact of recent negative events in the real estate industry has been delayed, and on the other hand, the impact of the epidemic has continued to lead to a decline in the consumption willingness of residents, and the increased uncertainty has led to an increase in the willingness of deposits, which has jointly weakened the demand for credit of residents.In terms of loans to enterprises and institutions, in September, short-term loans to enterprises and institutions were 656.7 billion yuan, an increase of 474.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium- and long-term loans to enterprises and institutions were 134.88 billion yuan, an increase of 654 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the credit scale of enterprises and institutions has improved significantly and the credit structure has further improved. This is mainly due to the implementation and implementation of a package of economic stabilization policies proposed by the State Council in late August, including a policy development financial instrument of 600 billion yuan, a special loan for equipment renewal and transformation of 200 billion yuan, a special loan for agricultural and rural infrastructure investment, and special funds for housing guarantees, etc., which strongly support the medium- and long-term loans of enterprises and institutions. In addition, the seasonal effect of new credit scale since the beginning of this year has the characteristics of large fluctuations due to short-term loans. The sharp increase in short-term loans of corporate institutions this month may also be the result of the bank's quarterly surge.
deposit current remains stable, and capital liquidity remains abundant
At the end of September 2022, the balance of narrow currency (M1) was 66.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous period; the balance of broad currency (M2) was 262.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 this month remains high. On the one hand, it is due to the effect of the low base effect. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 in September last year was 8.3%, which is in the full-year position. On the other hand, it is due to the advancement of the policy of stabilizing growth in the first three quarters compared with last year and new expansionary policies are still being introduced, which not only causes fiscal advances but also expands fiscal expenditure. A large amount of fiscal deposits are converted into M2, pushing up the year-on-year growth rate of M2. We predict that M2 will grow by 12.1% year-on-year at the end of September, which is consistent with the actual value, mainly taking into account the low base effect and the continuous introduction of stable growth policies.
From the perspective of M2-M1 growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of M2-M1 at the end of September was 5.7%, and the growth rate of scissors difference decreased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous period, indicating that the current monetary deposits at the end of September fell compared with the previous period. Judging from the overall situation this year, while M2's year-on-year growth rate is running at a high level, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 is also relatively high. The difference between the two is basically maintained at a level of around 5.5%, indicating that the high growth of M2 has not significantly brought about the current deposits, which reflects that the uncertainty has still had a great impact on the demand side.
From the perspective of social financing-M2 growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing-M2 at the end of September was -1.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period, indicating that the expansion rate of social financing is still weaker than the speed of monetary expansion, and the phenomenon of abundant capital liquidity is still continuing, indicating that there is a certain mismatch between credit demand and monetary easing. The phenomenon of idle capital in the financial market has not improved, and interest rates are expected to continue to remain low.
Future Outlook: Short-term social financing credit is still supported, and the long-term trend needs to pay attention to the epidemic and the trend of real estate
In the next fourth quarter, with the implementation of the effects of stable growth policies such as the use of the balance limit of more than 500 billion yuan of special bonds, the construction of agricultural and rural infrastructure of 300 billion yuan, the renovation of equipment 200 billion yuan, and the reduction of LPR, it is expected that the scale of social financing and credit is expected to be continuously supported, especially in October and November, which is expected to increase year-on-year compared with last year, but the restoration of the real estate market still needs to pay attention to the strength of the policy of guaranteeing housing payment and the policy of loose housing market. In addition, the epidemic will remain a key external factor affecting social financing credit in the future. How to eliminate this uncertainty will strongly support the medium- and long-term financing needs of enterprises and residents.
Introduction to the National Economic Research Center of Peking University:
Peking University National Economic Research Center was established in 2004. Affiliated in Peking University School of Economics . Relying on Peking University , key research areas include China's economic fluctuations and economic growth, macro-control theory and practice, economic theory, China's economic reform practice, transitional economic theory and practice cutting-edge topics, political economy, Western economic teaching research, etc. At the same time, this center closely tracks the major changes in the macroeconomic and policies, incorporates short-term fluctuations and long-term growth into a comprehensive theoretical research framework, interprets them from a unique perspective, grasps macro trends, analyzes data changes, understands the original intention of the policy, and predicts the effectiveness of the policy. The research of the
center has achieved remarkable results, which has had a great impact on China's macroeconomic policy.The most representative results are: (1) Promoting the adjustment of China's population policy . Since 2006, Professor Su Jian , the director of the center, has called on China to immediately and completely abandon the family planning policy and instead encourage childbirth. (2) Research on the macro-control system: The center proposes a three-dimensional macro-control system including market-oriented reform, supply management and demand management policies. (3) Research on the intensity of macro-control: In July 2017, this center pointed out that China's macro-control should be strictly prevented from being too strong. This suggestion was approved by the main leaders of the State Council and was also completely consistent with the view that "maintaining macro-control" was put forward in the report of the 19th National Congress three months later. (4) Regarding the results of China's economic target growth rate. In 2013, after careful analysis and calculation, Liu Wei and Su Jian believed that as long as China has an economic growth rate of 6.5% each year, employment can be ensured. Shortly thereafter, this growth rate became the benchmark target for the Chinese government's economic growth rate. The practice of China's economy in recent years has also proved the accuracy of their calculation results. (5) Supply-side research. Professor Liu Wei and Professor Su Jian are the earliest scholars in China to study supply side. They began to publish academic papers on supply management in magazines such as Economic Research in 2007. (6) Research on the new normal. The paper "China's Macro-control under the New Normal" jointly developed by Liu Wei and Su Jian (Economic Science, Issue 4, 2014) is the first academic paper to study the new normal of China's economy. Su Jian and Lin Weibin also studied the new normal in developed countries. (7) "China's Economy Seeking Breakthrough" edited by Liu Wei and Su Jian has been translated into five languages: English, Korean, Russian , Japanese , and Hindi. (8) Research on Beijing subsidy mechanism. In 2008, this research team was commissioned by Beijing Municipal Finance Bureau to design a subsidy mechanism for Beijing subway operation. The mechanism has been used since January 1, 2009 and has been in effect until now.
center publications include: (1) " Yuan Fu " magazine. "Yuan Fu" is a monthly electronic publication sponsored by the National Economic Research Center of Peking University. Its purpose is to present the major macroeconomic events at home and abroad this month in the most timely, professional and comprehensive way and provide professional interpretations of key events. (2) " China Economic Growth Report " (annual report). The report mainly analyzes the medium- and long-term problems in China's economic operation. It has been published for 14 consecutive issues since 2003. It is the longest continuous publication of the relevant annual reports and has been included in its annual report funding plan by the Ministry of Education. (3) Series of macroeconomic operation analysis and forecast reports. This center regularly publishes a series of analysis and forecast reports on China's macroeconomic operation, especially the forecast reports of this center are leading the country in terms of prediction accuracy.
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