In the context of global chip shortage, many manufacturers have raised chip prices, which has caused turmoil in the domestic chip market and consumers have complained. In order to avoid further deterioration, the country has taken action to strictly regulate the chip market. However, at this critical moment, TSMC is not in conflict with the world and openly "take the lead in provoking trouble" to raise chip prices. Why is it so crazy? And where did it get the confidence to do such a move? Is there any conspiracy behind all this?
Today, Water Bear Crush will talk to everyone and analyze the intention of TSMC's move!
[Global chip shortage]
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the international chip market has experienced supply shortage. 168 industries around the world have been directly impacted, and many industry giants have been forced to stop production of . Just like the United States Apple suspended some high-end products production, General Motors suspended some production lines, and even the consumer electronics industries such as game consoles and home appliances were affected by chip shortage.
Therefore, Goldman Sachs multinational bank made its first statement, saying that the overall economy of the United States will be affected in this crisis of chip shortage, and The US domestic industry will face a loss of nearly 135.85 billion yuan. Among them, the problems faced by the automotive industry are the most serious. A large number of new cars cannot be completed due to the lack of in-car chips. The US used car market has even raised market prices, and a large number of second-hand cars are inflated. This shows how much impact this chip shortage crisis has.
, corresponding to many Chinese companies are also facing the embarrassing situation of chip shortage
In order to solve this problem, all countries are actively seeking effective solutions, such as expanding chip processing plants, increasing chip production capacity, etc., hoping to solve the problem in this way, but chips are consumables. Generally speaking, most companies will not hoard chips. When the "chip shortage crisis" comes, major companies are caught off guard and demanding chips is extremely high. Even if the chip foundry expands its production capacity, it cannot meet market demand in a short period of time. Therefore, it is not realistic to completely solve the problem in a short period of time.
And in this core shortage, a problem arises.
[CCTV's Warning]
Faced with the situation of chip shortage, some "opportunistic" merchants were like sharks smelling blood, and the domestic chip market was disturbed. The chip foundry maliciously raised the cost of wafer manufacturing, chip suppliers maliciously raised the price of chips, and the situation of speculation on chip prices became increasingly fierce.
According to market data, under the malicious promotion of some people, the overall price of chips in the domestic market increased by more than 5 times, and the increase of some chips in was as high as 10 times . This phenomenon directly caused market turmoil and forced many downstream companies to start hoarding chips in large quantities.
. When the chip price rises and the manufacturing cost increases, the price of terminal products produced by downstream enterprises will also rise higher, and the final consequences of will inevitably be borne by consumers.
Seeing the gradual heating of chip market prices, it gradually became uncontrollable. CCTV issued an emergency warning, threatening that 's "chip shortage" is not the reason for "chip speculation", and warned the "chip speculation" to stop immediately.
After CCTV spoke out, it immediately had an impact on the stock market. Several domestic chip stocks fell by more than 10%, and many industry insiders also stood up one after another, saying that this "chip speculation" trend will be rectified soon and the market will return to its previous appearance. However, what everyone did not expect was that when CCTV took action, there were still people who risked the world's worst and "dealed against the wind" to raise the chip price. Yes, this company is TSMC!
[Taipei Medium, which insists on doing its own thing]
Recently, according to media reports, the board of directors of TSMC decided to "go against the current" and issued a statement saying that it will increase the manufacturing price of 12-inch wafers starting from August, and the price of will increase by as much as 15%-20%.
Why does TSMC dare to make such a decision on this trend? Where is its confidence?
Those who know about chips must have heard of TSMC more or less heard of TSMC's name. As the number one in chip foundry, it not only has the world's largest and most advanced chip foundry, but also has the world's leading manufacturing process and can mass production of 5nm chips. is expected to be able to mass production of 3nm chips in two years, and TSMC has a large number of lithography machines.
Previously, TSMC revealed that among the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines (EUV lithography machines) that are currently operating in the world, TSMC has about half of the number, and the chip production capacity is expected to account for 60% of the world's .
. According to the annual report of lithography machine manufacturer ASML, as of 2020, ASML has delivered more than 76 EUV lithography machines to customers. Based on this, calculates that the number of existing EUV lithography machines of TSMC is about 35 to 38 .
In addition, some industry insiders claim that TSMC is currently increasing its research and development efforts in lithography processes. It is expected that by the end of 2021, the cumulative purchase of EUV lithography machines will reach 55 units, and this huge number of lithography machines will directly bring more production capacity to TSMC.
But the problem is that TSMC cannot fight against the national power with technology and production capacity alone. What is the price increase of at this critical moment?
At this time, let’s take a look at Volkswagen’s view on this matter. At present, mainstream public opinion believes that the chips in are in short supply in the market, and TSMC’s own production capacity is also overloaded. Seeing the rising chip prices in the market, the major shareholders of TSMC can’t sit still and want to get a piece of the pie. They jointly put pressure on TSMC to further increase their profit margins. There is a great possibility that
is both reasonable and reasonable, but if we conduct further analysis, you will find that things are not that simple.
You should know that TSMC's US stock investors hold a total of 20.54% of the shares. There is no doubt that TSMC has the shadow of US capital behind this. This is unquestionable . In addition, the United States has almost mastered most of the patents in chip technology today. TSMC is a foundry factory. It is a fantasy to want to bypass these patents to produce chips. At the same time, in terms of key equipment, the United States also has great restrictions on TSMC, just like the wafer manufacturing equipment manufacturer represented by the American Applied Materials Kelei KLA Panlin Group, which occupies an important position in the etching of PCD, CVD and other links in wafer manufacturing.
So it is not impossible for the United States to have an impact on TSMC. If there is the United States behind TSMC's price increase, then everything will be explained. In addition to getting a share of the market, the purpose of 's move is to take advantage of this and disrupt the domestic chip market and cause domestic chips that are realizing the 28nm mass production plan to be affected to a certain extent.
is not difficult to guess that once TSMC's "take advantage of the situation" behavior succeeds, and after the chip manufacturing price increases significantly, major chip foundries will also hear the news, further increase the chip manufacturing price, and intensify the phenomenon of "chip speculation" . At that time, everything will be passed on to consumers, not only will the process of independent chip development in China be interfered with.
But can TSMC's strategy be easily achieved? obviously can't!
[The country takes strict action! 】
TSMC's "brain" approach immediately attracted the attention of the country. Not long after that, the country also intervened in the matter!
According to reports, the country has investigated chip manufacturers suspected of price gouging, and the country's intervention has gradually stabilized the chip market on the verge of out-of-control. Even TSMC cannot cause storms!
html In mid-August, according to DigiTimes, TSMC officially made a decision to immediately stop the chip price increase plan, and will adopt the price reduction strategy of in the future. Regarding the suspension of the price increase plan, senior executives of TSMC responded that the move was to "maintain relationships with customers and increase customer dependence."
In fact, to put it bluntly, TSMC is just a stubborn person. The reason why it gave up price increases is mainly because the country took action to play a deterrent role, but it is understandable that , why is TSMC's sudden price cut? Don’t they want to make money? This is not difficult to understand when we think about it carefully.
On the one hand, TSMC expressed its dissatisfaction through price reduction. On the other hand, wants to seize the domestic market by price reduction, while suppressing the 28nm chip production process of domestic chip foundry companies. We also mentioned earlier that at the critical node that domestic chips are about to achieve 28nm mass production, TSMC will have an impact on the market whether it raises prices or lowers prices. In this way, even if the domestic 28nm chip is successfully mass production, its market positioning will be affected.
After all, TSMC is on the surface and gives up the price increase, but in fact it is still "bad intentions" for the chip market in mainland China .
At present, the most direct way to get rid of the impact of chip shortage and TSMC's price reduction strategy is to increase production capacity. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the past month of June 2021, Chinese chip manufacturing companies produced a total of 30.8 billion chips, with a year-on-year increase of 48% . Although most of these chips are mid- and low-end chips, they are enough to alleviate the current chip shortage crisis. In addition, in terms of high-end chip manufacturing, SMIC , a leading domestic chip foundry company, also made a statement. said that it will conduct high-end chip test mass production before the end of this year!
Not only that, in March this year, the "Oriental Core Port" project established by the state is also steadily underway. Once the project is completed within expectations, will not be defeated, nor will it be the technological war initiated by the United States or the "chip shortage" dilemma we are facing now. This is the case!
In general, although this "chip shortage crisis" and the technology war initiated by the United States have brought considerable impacts to Chinese high-tech enterprises such as Huawei , ZTE , etc., risks and opportunities coexist. While this unprecedented stress test brings us trouble, it also creates unprecedented opportunities for the development of China's semiconductor industry. At present, we firmly grasp this opportunity. In the near future, we will definitely be able to de-beautify chips and achieve 100% domestic substitution! I hope everyone will wait and see this!
