Economic Observer Reporter Chen Shan During the National Day holiday, international crude oil rebounded significantly, rising for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of exceeding 12%. It is a new round of refined oil price adjustment cycle from September 22 to October 9, and the "V" trend of crude oil has turned the crude oil change rate from negative to positive and at a low level. Industry analysts generally expect that the retail price limit for refined oil will not be adjusted at 24:00 on October 10. This is also the first time since 2022.
Specifically, at the beginning of this cycle, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and the US stock market fell, and the market's concerns about the economic recession intensified. The price of crude oil fell to its lowest since early January, and WTI crude oil fell to its lowest level on September 26 to US$76.25 per barrel. Subsequently, during the National Day holiday, OPEC and its allies reduced production by a larger scale, and U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories fell across the board. Boosted by many positive news, oil prices rose for five consecutive trading days, and WTI returned to above $90 per barrel.
Zhuochuang Information refined oil analyst Xu Na told reporters that since the fluctuation amplitude of crude oil during the holidays is included in the price adjustment cycle, the crude oil change rate turns from negative to positive and fluctuates at a positive low. Zhuochuang Information Monitoring Model shows that as of the close of October 7, the domestic reference crude oil change rate for the 10th working day was 0.35%, and gasoline and diesel are expected to increase by 25 yuan/ton. Since the adjustment range does not reach the 50 yuan/ton red line, the retail price limit adjustment of refined oil will be stranded at 24:00 on October 10, which is also the first time since 2022. Looking at the future market of
, Xu Na believes that with the market's digestion of OPEC's production cuts, we need to be wary of the continued continued rise in crude oil in the later stage, and the possibility of a high-level decline cannot be ruled out. The current international oil prices are at a high level, and the average level of crude oil in the new cycle may be higher. Zhuochuang Information Monitoring Model shows that according to the current crude oil price level, the new cycle crude oil change rate is at a positive high, and the upward atmosphere is strong, and the price adjustment window is 24:00 on October 24.
Recently, the news that the crude oil market has the most attention and influence is that the significant production cuts of OPEC+ have been implemented. At 21:00 on October 5, Beijing time, OPEC+ announced that it would agree to cut production by 2 million barrels per day. Since October, OPEC+ has frequently raised its market expectations for its production cuts, driving international oil prices to continue to rise sharply and finally fulfilling its production cut plans.
Guotai Junan Futures Energy Senior Researcher Huang Liunan told reporters that the upward offense may slow down this week after the continued surge on the National Day, but in the long run, this round of repair rebound has not ended, and the center of gravity of oil prices in the fourth quarter may partially rebound. The two foreign oil markets have the opportunity to return to $100/barrel before hitting a new low in the medium and long term.
He continued that although the medium- and long-term downward pressure on oil prices from a macro perspective is still relatively large, after the foreign oil market has fallen by more than 30% in the third quarter, the decision of OPEC+ this session will most likely delay the pace of oil prices falling again, and pay attention to phased upward risks in the short term.
CITIC Securities also believes that OPEC+'s internal determination to reduce production and support prices is expected to provide strong support for oil prices. Analysis pointed out that Europe and the United States are facing further high inflation pressure, economic data declined, and the United States released 10 million barrels of SPR (strategic oil reserves) to deal with OPEC+ production cuts. The SPR has decreased by 180 million barrels in 2022, and the space for release in the later period and the room for decompression on the crude oil supply side is limited. With the implementation of the eighth round of sanctions on Russia by , the EU's internal oil price limit on Russia cannot be reached, and the actual impact is expected to be limited. The Russian-Ukraine war has intensified again recently, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level under the influence of tightening supply and the geopolitical .
