(report producer/author: Ping An Securities, Chen Jianwen)
. Overview of lithium battery copper foil 1.1 Definition and classification of lithium battery copper foil
Lithium battery copper foil is the abbreviation of lithium ion battery copper foil. It acts as the material for the negative electrode current collector of lithium battery. It belongs to the important category of electrolytic copper foil . It is a metal copper foil produced by electrolytic method and surface-treated metal copper foil.
thickness is the most commonly used classification method for lithium battery copper foil. Depending on the thickness, lithium battery copper foil can be divided into thin copper foil (12~18 microns), ultra-thin copper foil (6~12 microns) and extremely thin copper foil (6 microns and below). Because new energy vehicles have high requirements for energy density, power batteries tend to use ultra-thin and extremely thin copper foils with thinner thicknesses. Judging from the surface of copper foil , lithium battery copper foil is generally double-sided light copper foil.
1.2 Lithium battery copper foil is in the middle of the industrial chain, and the raw materials + processing fee model is used to price
The upstream of the lithium battery copper foil industry chain are metals and chemical raw materials including cathode copper , sulfuric acid, etc. The downstream of the industrial chain is lithium-ion batteries, and the terminal is the application scenarios of lithium-ion batteries in consumer electronics, energy storage, electric vehicles, and .
As a lithium battery copper foil in the middle of the industrial chain, the industry development is affected by upstream raw materials and downstream lithium batteries. Among them, upstream raw materials copper materials, sulfuric acid, etc. belong to bulk commodities , with sufficient supply, but frequent price fluctuations. Downstream lithium batteries are currently greatly affected by the development of new energy vehicles and energy storage, and market growth is expected.
In the face of frequent fluctuations in raw material prices, the commonly used pricing method of lithium battery copper foil is the raw material copper price + processing fee model, which has a certain transmission ability for fluctuations in raw material prices, and the level of processing fee is closely related to the supply and demand relationship of lithium battery copper foil itself.
1.3 costs do not account for a high proportion, but it has an important impact on the performance of lithium batteries
Lithium battery copper foil serves as the negative electrode current collector of lithium-ion batteries and serves as the carrier of the negative electrode active material; at the same time, it also serves as the negative electrode electron collector and conductor, and its function is to gather the current generated by the battery active substance to generate a larger output current. Although the cost of lithium batteries is not high in lithium batteries, about 5 to 10%, it has an important impact on the overall performance of the battery. Therefore, lithium battery copper foil is an important component that cannot be ignored by lithium batteries.
. Demand is growing rapidly, and the general trend of lightweight and thinning is 2.1 Power and energy storage lithium batteries are developing rapidly, and the lithium battery copper foil market is solid.
Lithium battery copper foil demand depends on downstream lithium-ion batteries. In recent years, my country's lithium-ion batteries have developed rapidly. According to Gaogong Lithium Battery (GGII), my country's lithium battery shipments have increased significantly from 46.4GWh in 2015 to 143GWh in 2020, with an annual compound growth rate of 25%. Among them, the growth of power batteries and energy storage batteries is particularly prominent, accounting for 56% and 11% of China's lithium battery shipments in 2020 respectively. Gaogong Lithium Battery expects that my country's demand for lithium batteries will continue to maintain rapid growth in the future, and shipments will further increase to 611GWh by 2025. Considering that the 3C digital lithium battery market is relatively stable, we focus on analyzing power and energy storage batteries with great growth potential.
power batteries are mainly used in the field of new energy vehicles. Although , due to the impact of subsidy decline and the epidemic, the development of new energy vehicles in my country temporarily slowed down in 2019 and 2020, the technological progress of new energy vehicles and the cost of new energy vehicles has continued to improve, and the market acceptance has continued to improve. It recovered rapidly in 2021. In the first nine months, my country's new energy vehicle production was 2.17 million, a year-on-year increase of 93%. In the future, new energy vehicles will benefit the national carbon neutrality strategy, and their cost-effectiveness will continue to increase. The penetration rate of is expected to continue to increase significantly, and the demand for powered lithium-ion batteries will grow rapidly. According to Gaogong Lithium Battery, China's power lithium battery shipments in 2020 will reach 470GWh in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 43%.
The main application areas of lithium batteries used in the energy storage market include grid-side energy storage, home energy storage, and communication base station (backup power supply) energy storage. Currently, the main electrochemical energy storage includes lithium batteries, lead-acid batteries and sodium-sulfur batteries. With its advantages in capacity, cycle life, safety, etc., lithium-ion batteries have become the protagonist of the electrochemical energy storage market, with a share of up to 89% in 2020.In recent years, my country's chemical energy storage has developed rapidly, with the cumulative installed capacity of about 3.3GW in 2020. It is expected that with the development of wind power, photovoltaic and other industries in the future, my country's electrochemical energy storage will grow rapidly. It is expected that the compound growth rate of the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage from 2021 to 2025 will be 57.4%, and will reach 35.5GW in 2025.
lithium battery, as the leading product of electrochemical energy storage, benefits from the rapid development of the energy storage industry. According to Gaogong lithium battery, the shipment of lithium batteries in my country's energy storage field in 2020 was 16.2GWh, and it is expected to grow at a compound growth rate of more than 60% in the next five years. In 2025, my country's energy storage lithium batteries shipment will significantly increase to 180GWh.
2.2 Lithium battery copper foil continues to become thinner, and the penetration rate of ultra-thin and extremely thin copper foils continues to increase
Lithium batteries, especially power lithium batteries, have high requirements for energy density, and lithium battery copper foil has also become one of the breakthrough points. Under the premise that other systems remain unchanged, the thinner the copper foil used in lithium batteries, the lighter the weight and the higher the mass energy density. The mainstream energy density of 8-micron copper foil power batteries is 228.8Wh/Kg. If 6-micron and 4.5-micron copper foil is used, the energy density of lithium batteries will be increased by 5% and 9%. In addition, the thinner the thickness of the copper foil, the less copper used per unit battery, which is also conducive to the reduction of battery cost. Currently, the use of copper per unit of 8 micron copper foil is 800 tons/GWh, and the use of copper per unit of 6 micron and 4.5 micron copper foil is reduced to 620 tons/GWh and 450 tons/GWh. Whether in terms of cost or improving battery performance, the benefits of using thin copper foil are obvious.
With the joint efforts of battery companies and copper foil manufacturers, my country's lithium battery copper foil is at the forefront of the world's lightness and thinness. Currently, the thickness of foreign lithium battery copper foil is mostly 8 microns. In China, in 2018, CATL lithium battery was the first to switch between 8 micron copper foil and 6 micron. In 2020, CATL began to introduce 4.5 micron copper foil to promote the development of lithium battery copper foil in the direction of lightweighting. According to CCFA (Electronic Copper Foil Materials Branch of China Electronic Materials Industry Association), in the structure of my country's lithium battery copper foil, the share of 6 micron copper foil has increased from 14% in 2017 to 34% in 2020, while the share of 4.5 micron copper foil has gone from nothing to something, and the share in 2020 is 3%. We believe that the general trend of lightweight lithium battery copper foil in the future, and extremely thin and ultra-thin lithium battery copper foils face good market opportunities.
2.3 It is expected that the market size of my country's lithium battery copper foil will expand rapidly in the future
Driven by the rapid development of lithium batteries, the market size of my country's lithium battery copper foil will expand rapidly. According to Gaogong Lithium Battery, in addition to the changes in the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2019, the shipment of my country's lithium battery copper foil (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and joint ventures) has maintained rapid growth, and the market size increased from 41,000 tons in 2015 to 93,000 tons in 2019, accounting for about 54.7% of the global lithium battery copper foil production, with an annual compound growth rate of about 23%.
. Leading companies are actively expanding production, and the supply is tight, which may continue until 2022. The production of lithium battery copper foil has a high barrier. Lithium battery copper foil production process can be divided into four major processes: copper dissolving, foil, post-treatment and slitting. The four major processes play different roles. Among them, foil is the most important process, which determines the performance of most of the finished copper foil.
Copper dissolution process: reacts raw material copper (copper plate, copper wire, etc.) with hot dilute sulfuric acid to produce copper sulfate solution , then filters, adjusts the temperature, adjusts the electrolyte composition, and prepares electrolyte with high purity and meets the process conditions.
Foil generation process: add additives, use low voltage and high current technology, and through electrochemical reactions, the electrolyte copper ions is obtained, and then adheres to the continuously rotating high-performance titanium cathode roller. With continuous electrolytic deposition, copper foil of a certain thickness is formed. The subsequently produced copper foil is peeled and wound into a copper foil roll (also known as raw foil, raw foil or untreated copper foil) through continuous rotation, pickling, water washing, drying, peeling and other processes of the cathode roller.
Post-treatment process: performs surface treatment processes such as pickling and organic anti-oxidation on the original foil to make its indicators meet customer requirements.
slitting process: slitting, inspection, packaging, etc. according to the customer's requirements for the quality of the copper foil, width , weight, etc. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
lithium battery copper foil production difficulty increases with the decrease in thickness.As the product thickness becomes thinner, its process stability control requirements, equipment accuracy requirements, and automatic control accuracy control requirements are getting higher and higher, and production difficulty increases. Specifically, as the product thickness becomes thinner, the current load of foils must be moderately reduced; the tensile strength per unit width of the product and the compressive deformation ability of the foil surface are reduced, and the yield rate is reduced; the maintenance frequency increases accordingly, and the operating rate is reduced; and the additive quality requirements are higher, the usage is greater, the required equipment quality is improved, and the cost is increased.
In the production process, representative technical difficulties include the selection of copper sulfate solutions and additives, process formulas, operating methods, production equipment and production process control, etc., which are difficult to be mastered by new manufacturers through simple copying. The core equipment of the electrolysis process of
is the foil germination machine, and the core component of the foil germination machine is the cathode roller. is currently the world's major electrolytic copper foil cathode rollers provided by Japanese and Korean companies such as Nippon Steel, Sanchuan, and South Korea PNT. Although Shanghai Motitanium Niobium and Xi'an Taijin have made great progress in foil ingredients in China, there is still a big gap between foil ingredients in 6 microns and below and Japanese and Korean companies. Due to the relatively limited supply of cathode rollers and foil foil, the expansion of lithium battery copper foil is restricted. At present, overseas foil foil manufacturers have full orders, and the output in the next few years has been booked.
3.2 Lithium battery copper foil project has high investment strength, and the construction and customer certification cycle is long
Due to the large investment in equipment including foil germ, lithium battery copper foil has the characteristics of heavy asset . According to the project investment situation disclosed by representative listed companies Nord Co., Ltd. and Jiayuan Technology , the unit investment strength of lithium battery copper foil is relatively high. The investment required for the production capacity of 10,000 tons of lithium battery copper foil is about 700 million yuan, or even higher. In terms of specific composition, the proportion of equipment purchases is the highest, exceeding 50%.
At the same time, the lithium battery copper foil project includes equipment reservation, installation, civil engineering and other processes, and the construction period is about 2 years. In addition, in terms of customer certification, considering that copper foil has a great impact on the comprehensive performance of lithium batteries, the certification is stricter and the cycle is longer, usually more than half a year. If it is a new product and a new supplier, the cycle from certification to large-scale ordering will be longer.
3.3 extremely thin lithium battery copper foil is difficult to produce, has a strong profit level, and has high technical requirements for lithium battery copper foil production, and there are also certain losses in the subsequent cutting process according to customer custom requirements. Therefore, it is difficult to achieve nominal production capacity. For example, considering some invalid production capacity that cannot be mass-produced, the overall capacity utilization rate of the lithium battery copper foil industry is about 80%. , and as the thickness of the copper foil becomes thinner, the yield rate will decrease. For example, the current capacity utilization rate of lithium battery copper foils with a thickness of 6 microns and below is only about 70%, which is about 10 percentage points lower than the industry average. At present, the production of 8 micron lithium battery copper foil is relatively mature, but few companies have the capacity to mass produce copper foils of 6 microns and below, among which there are even fewer manufacturers that achieve mass production of 4.5 micron thickness copper foils, mainly a few companies such as Nord Co., Ltd. and Jiayuan Technology.
6 micron copper foils are more difficult to produce, enjoy high bargaining and have strong profitability. According to Xinli Battery, on November 8, 2021, the tax-inclusive price of 8 micron 6 micron lithium battery copper foil is 105,000 to 109,000 yuan/ton and 122,000 to 125,000 yuan/ton. Considering that lithium-ion copper foil generally adopts a pricing model of copper price + processing fee, we use the copper foil price to calculate the processing fee by deducting the cathode copper price on the same day, the processing fee for 8 micron lithium-ion copper foil is about 35,000 yuan/ton (including tax), while the processing fee for 6 micron copper foil is 52,000 yuan/ton (including tax), which is about 47% higher than the processing fee for 8 micron copper foil.
3.4 China is the world's largest producer of lithium battery copper foil. The leading company has a strong market position.
Benefiting from the rapid development of China's new energy vehicles and lithium battery industries. China's lithium battery copper foil development is in the world's leading position, and its products cover thin copper foil, ultra-thin copper foil and extremely thin copper foil. China has now become the world's largest lithium battery copper foil producer. According to CCFA, China's lithium battery copper foil production capacity in 2020 was 229,000 tons. We estimate that China's global lithium battery copper foil production capacity market share is about 65%.
3.5 is expected to be tight in supply until 2022, and the processing fee of lithium battery copper foil is expected to maintain a high level
According to CCFA, my country's lithium battery copper foil production capacity in 2020 was 229,000 tons. Due to the decline in new energy vehicle subsidies in 2019 and the epidemic in 2020, the development of new energy vehicles in my country has slowed down, and the supply of lithium battery copper foil, especially 8 micron copper foil, is relatively loose. The impact of the epidemic weakens in 2021, and my country's new energy vehicles have entered a rapid growth again. The rapid growth of the energy storage market has led to a significant increase in the demand for lithium battery copper foil. We expect the demand for lithium battery copper foil in 2021 to be about 190,000 tons. is calculated based on an 80% operating rate. In 2020, the output of stock capacity has been slightly lower than market demand, and the copper foil market is showing a tight supply trend. Based on the commissioning of copper foil projects of major companies and the progress of production capacity, we judge that in 2022, the tight supply of copper foil may continue, and the processing fee of lithium battery copper foil is expected to remain at a high level. The supply side will improve significantly in 2023, and the industry will gradually re-balance.
. Key companies analyze 4.1 Longdian Huaxin: Lithium-battery copper foil scale is leading, Nanjing project Tianguang
Copper foil production subsidiaries include Huaxin Copper foil, Baoxin Electronics, Hesheng Copper Industry, Hanhe Technology, and Longxin Electronics. The manufacturing bases are distributed in Lingbao, Shandong, Baoji, Shaanxi, and Nanjing, Jiangsu. Among them, Baoxin Electronics is the company's current main lithium-battery copper foil production base, with a lithium-battery copper foil production capacity of 40,000 tons. In addition, the 30,000-ton lithium battery copper foil of Nanjing Longxin Electronics Phase I is in the construction stage and is expected to be put into production in stages in September 2022. By then, the company's lithium battery copper foil production capacity will be greatly improved. According to CCFA, the production of Longdian Huaxin lithium battery copper foil in 2020 is 43,477 tons, ranking first in the industry.
4.2 Nord Co., Ltd.: The leading lithium battery copper foil restarts and grows
Nord Investment Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Nord Co., Ltd.") is mainly engaged in the research, development, production and sales of electrolytic copper foils for lithium-ion batteries. The main electrolytic copper foil products include 4~6 micron extremely thin lithium battery copper foils, 8~10 micron ultra-thin lithium battery copper foils, 9~70 micron high-performance electronic circuit copper foils, 105~500 micron ultra-thick electrolytic copper foils, etc., and has taken the lead in China to achieve mass production of 4.5 micron and 4 micron extremely thin lithium battery copper foils.
4.3 Jiayuan Technology: Deeply cultivate lithium battery copper foil, and the future production capacity will continue to grow
Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Jiayuan Technology") is mainly engaged in the production and sales of various high-performance electrolytic copper foils for lithium-ion batteries. It is mainly used in lithium-ion batteries, and is also used in PCBs in a small number. The company is one of the leading companies in the domestic high-performance lithium battery copper foil industry. It has established long-term cooperative relationships with major domestic lithium-ion battery manufacturers and has become the core supplier of its lithium battery copper foil. It has won the title of Outstanding Supplier of Lithium Battery Copper foil for many times. The company is deeply engaged in lithium battery copper foil and has a leading product research and development. Currently, 4.5 micron extremely thin lithium battery copper foil has been supplied to customers in batches.
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selected report source: [Future Think Tank]. Future Think Tank - Official Website
