Can I buy a house now? Recently, not only many home buyers have asked about this question in our backstage, but even more people have been asked around Chengdu Business Daily-Red Star News reporters.

Can you buy a house now? Recently, not only many home buyers have asked about this question in our backstage, but even more people have been asked around Chengdu Business Daily-Red Star News reporters.

On the one hand, the policy continues to relieve difficulties, People's Bank of China and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission intensively "issuing red envelopes"; Sichuan also issued a document to give birth to Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling Handling

When policies, markets, and developers set the "rescue of the market" in place, while home buyers collectively lack confidence and hesitate, whether to buy a house has become a "war of confidence" for many parties in the market.

Policy end:

interest rate is at a low level in the past 10 years

"The current real estate market needs to establish a new balance, and new supporting policies need to be introduced. When confidence is rising, everything will be good!" This is the founding president of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Nie Meisheng recently in a public interview.

From the policy side, supporting policies have begun to continue to make efforts. According to statistics, as of August, more than 230 cities across the country have optimized and adjusted their real estate policies, and issued more than 600 regulatory measures. Moreover, adjustment measures at all levels and departments are still being introduced:

9 evening, Central Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice to decide to phase the adjustment of differentiated housing credit policies;

9 On September 30, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement from October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023, to sell their own housing from October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023. Taxpayers who repurchase their housing in the market within one year after the sale of the current house will give tax refunds to the personal income tax that has been paid for the sale of the current house;

htmlOn September 30, the central bank issued an announcement that starting from October 1, 2022, the provident fund loan interest rate for the first personal housing provident fund loan is 0.15 percentage points...

According to statistics from the Beike Research Institute, as of September this year, the average mainstream interest rate for the first home loan was 4.15%, and the average point for the second home was 4.91%. Among them, the interest rate for first-home mortgages fell by 17 basis points month-on-month, and the interest rate for second-home mortgages fell by 15 basis points month-on-month, down 159 basis points and 108 basis points respectively from last year's highest point. In many cities such as Chengdu, mortgage interest rates have reached a low level in the past 10 years.

"The policy intention of resuming the real estate market is clearly reflected. This is also another national policy relaxation since the real estate relaxation cycle from 2014 to 2016." Su Yu, research director of the Sichuan Branch of the China Index Academy, said that this policy is also different from the previous relaxation. It is carried out under the framework of "housing for living, not for speculation". On the one hand, it reflects the prudence of the policy, and on the other hand, it also has clear phased characteristics, which is beneficial to customers with real housing needs and reduce residents' debt burden. "So from this perspective, it is a window period for the release of self-occupied demand."

Market side:

"worst year" in the past three years

Developers are bound to "snatch up"

Compared with the looseness of the policy side, feedback from the market side is still on the side of the wait-and-see side. China Merchants Securities estimates that real estate sales may bottom out from the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year.

In the eyes of these institutions, any new stimulus policy will have a time lag effect, and it will take a while for the real recovery of the property market to take.

Research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute said, "Home buyers often have the sentiment of 'buy up, not buying down,' but in fact, it is time for developers to impact the full-year performance. They are bound to focus on pushing the market and 'stop collecting' at discounts." The data released by

g this week confirms this point. From January to September this year, the sales and sales area of ​​the top 10 real estate companies in Chengdu were almost at a low point, the lowest in the past three years. Among them, the sales of the TOP10 real estate companies was approximately 84.1 billion yuan, compared with approximately 113.7 billion yuan in the same period last year and approximately 106.8 billion yuan in the same period last year.

January-September 2022·Chengdu real estate companies sales list Picture According to CRIC Sichuan

"To get rid of the label of the 'worst year' in the past three years, it can be foreseen that real estate companies will take further actions." Yan Yuejin said that coupled with the favorable policies at the stage, this is a good opportunity for first-time home buyers and first-time home buyers.

How to buy a house?

Capture the following four trends

can be bought, this is the first consensus reached in the industry. But note that these industry insiders emphasize "self-occupied demand" and "first home purchase and first change", and it is a different matter to increase leverage to buy a house in .

How should customers who have real housing purchase needs buy a house? Many Chengdu real estate companies said in an interview that even if the property market rebounds in the future, the real estate market will still be severely differentiated. According to their views, Chengdu Business Daily-Red Star News reporters sorted out the following four trends.

Trend 1: High-level cities with "population inflow" have space

Economist Ren Zeping publicly stated: "China has built so many houses. Is there still room for real estate today? Yes, China's real estate development and construction has space in urban circles and urban clusters of population in areas where population inflows."

Senior President Assistant, South District, Wanda Investment Group, Assistant, Senior President of the South District Nie Heping, vice president of regional company and general manager of Chengdu City Company, also said in an interview: "From the fundamentals of population inflow, which determines the 'property potential of the property market, Chengdu's population growth in the past 10 years has reached 5.82 million, second only to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and there is a large demand for real estate. Secondly, Chengdu's GDP growth rate in 2021 reached 8.6%, which is about to break through the 2 trillion mark, and has strong economic growth strength. In my opinion, if you choose the TOP10 cities worth buying, Chengdu will definitely be at the forefront of this list."

This is the first step in buying a house, buying the right city.

Population changes in Chengdu According to Chengdu released

Trend 2: Consumption demand transfers to the core area of ​​the main city and sectors with strong resilience

Judging from the land auctions and real estate sales this year, the differentiation between various regions and sectors in Chengdu has become prominent, and the trend of "the core area is hot, the peripheral area is cold" is still expanding . According to the September market report of Centaline Real Estate, the traditional 5+2 district and suburban sales cycle rose within one month, while the remote suburban sales cycle rose by 2.16 months.

Comparison of the inventory and sales cycle of commercial housing in various urban areas Figure According to Centaline Real Estate

Many industry insiders said that when the market conditions of , the differences between regions are not obvious, but in the current market, only real estate projects with strong market resilience can outperform the market. On the contrary, avoid areas and sectors with low heat, large inventory and slow flow.

This also gives a clear purchasing logic. Tu Juntao, general manager of New Hope Real Estate Chengdu Company, said, "For home buyers, the priority must be to consider relatively mature areas, such as the main urban area of ​​Chengdu, some core areas in the second circle, and the strongly developing Tianfu New District , etc., fully considering the comprehensive supporting facilities such as location, education, transportation, and commerce."

Yuexiu Real Estate Western Regional General Manager Xu Yang also mentioned, "First consider the key direction of urban development, high planning, complete supporting facilities, fast cashing, and brand developers focus, and most of the products are preferred series areas for developers. "

Trend 3: First demand may be transferred to the existing second-hand housing market

In the interview, many industry insiders also mentioned a data: Since March this year, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Chengdu has exceeded new houses for seven consecutive months.

Changes in the number of new and second-hand housing transactions in Chengdu Figure 4 CRIC Sichuan

"The transactions in the second-hand market are mainly based on the urgently needed products under the Chengdu '7090 policy' in the previous 5-10 years, which also proves the release of the demand for housing improvement in Chengdu. "Kong Yong, general manager of Chengdu Company of Excellence Group, mentioned, "With the spillover of Chengdu's urban value, the stock market will become a market dominated by rigid demand, and will also help improve demand enter the new housing market. "The two markets are equally important." Nie Heping, senior assistant to the senior president of Wanda Investment Group, vice president of the southern regional company and general manager of Chengdu City Company, also said that the structure of first- and second-hand housing products in Chengdu is clearly distinguished. Second-hand housing is mainly based on basic needs, and new housing is mainly based on improvement. The rotation of first- and second-hand housing can promote the overall development of the Chengdu housing market.

Trend 4: Must-see delivery power

In the past, we said we wanted to buy a house of "big enterprises", but when high turnover no longer works and real estate companies start to "descale", this also changes the logic of buying a house: we should buy safe real estate companies and products.

What is "safety"? This has also been expressed in a concrete way at the moment: Buying a house in 2022 depends on the delivery power.

Under the downward pressure of the market, problems such as real estate companies' price reduction and allocation reduction are common. Delivery means that real estate companies' products have gone from planning and design to real implementation. In the future, delivery power, product power and service power, are considered to be the "lifeline" of future real estate companies and an important reference line for home buyers.

project restoration degree, spatial scale, quality control, process details, humanized facilities, etc. will all become the focus of home buyers when choosing products. It can even be said that without good delivery, everything is empty talk.

Can it be delivered on time and on quality become an important reference line for home buyers? The picture shows Shimao Yujinwan

written at the end

Now, can you still buy a house? How to buy a house?

I believe that after reading the above explanation, you have already had a clearer answer. To sum up, buying a house is a high-priced and low-frequency consumption behavior, which means that a large amount of information input and rational judgment are necessary, so the current wait and see is understandable. But the motivation to buy a house is crucial to decision-making.

If you live in for yourself, there will be no buying or selling in the short term. Remove the investment and speculation attributes. As long as you like it, it is a good time to buy a house.