html The Tianya Forum "Sheng Post" about real estate 35 years ago is being implemented one by one!
01
Divine prophecy of real estate
Recently, there has been a divine prophecy about China's real estate that has become popular across the Internet.
original post was in September 2016. Someone predicted the country's policy layout for real estate on the Tianya Forum. The title of the post is: "13 Must Ways in China's Real Estate Market".
The specific thirteen steps are as follows:
1, open the gate and release water. (has been realized, the reserve requirement ratio has been continuously reduced, the national down payment has been promoted, and the M2 expansion has been faster than GDP)
2, housing prices soar. (has been realized, the real estate market has always been)
3. Selling land to solve the local government debt crisis. (realized, land finance)
4, drive away RMB deposits into the housing market. (It has been realized, money has become a down payment for the house, income is used to pay off mortgages, and the real economy gets money to speculate in real estate)
5. The biggest "opponent" of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has disappeared, foreign exchange is temporarily safe. (has been realized. In 2017, major real estate companies stopped overseas investment and mergers and acquisitions, and foreign exchange was saved)
6. Follow the US imperial tightening of currency. (has been realized, the property market continues to raise interest rates)
7. Banks transfer most of the risks through CDS (credit default swap). (has been realized, implemented in 2016)
8. The ceiling for purchase restrictions is manufacturing, and housing prices have begun to fall. (partially realized, the combination punch has been released, the northern real estate market and the southern second-tier real estate market have begun to weaken, either fast or slow)
9. Taking over at a high level or investors cannot cash out, and RMB funds have been successfully locked. (partially implemented, the liquidity of real estate is particularly poor now, and various policies to restrict second-hand housing transactions are introduced)
10, land fiscal transformation. (ongoing, 17 years of rental and sale rights, leasing land, shared ownership, land fiscal revenue begins to be transferred to tax)
11. Real estate tax is imposed to completely kill harmless retail investors. (in progress)
12. Drive the remaining funds back into the industry and keep employment. (in progress)
13, RMB internationalization. (In progress, more and more countries have begun to abandon the US dollar and use RMB)
The first 6 items in the first 6 are nothing to say. When the prophecy was released, it was basically implemented, which is equivalent to writing some faita facts into it.
What is really surprising is that the CDS came in less than a week after the prediction came out; the national purchase restrictions came in less than two weeks after the prediction came out; the national first-home interest rate began to rise less than a month after the prediction came out.
Steps 7, 8 and 9 have either been implemented or have achieved considerable results in steady progress.
Steps 10-13 are also the steps we are doing, but due to the large resistance, the current progress is also relatively slow, but it cannot be denied that these things are being done.
02
National big chess game
If you want to adjust real estate, the most worrying thing is that banks have large-scale bad debts and systemic risks.
In 2016, just one week after this prediction came out, the China Interbank Market Dealers Association issued a series of announcements such as "Guidelines for Credit Linked Notes", "Guidelines for Credit Default Swap Business", and "Guidelines for Credit Risk Mitigation Certificates".
marks the official implementation of the Chinese version of CDS. (Step 7)
You may not know what CDS is. In fact, it is a financial tool, and the specific operation mechanism is also relatively complicated to explain. Try to say it as simple as possible for everyone to understand.
Simply put, CDS is a means for banks to resolve lending risks, and can also be used to short-term real estate. CDS is common in many industries and is not limited to the real estate field.
The most feared situation is that home buyers cannot afford to pay the loan. At this time, a method was born in the market to buffer risks - launch CDS.
You can first understand CDS as insurance, but it is not insurance in strict sense.
is the bank found an insurance company and said that I will give you some money every month. If I release it and someone in the mortgage can’t pay the money, then you can help him make up the remaining money.
Insurance company has set monthly security deposits for different credibility levels through actuarial calculations. This relationship is almost CDS. After the CDS is launched by
, when ordinary people cannot pay off their mortgage, to a certain extent, the bad debts of banks can be buffered through CDS.
And the real purpose of CDS is to prevent the severe fluctuations in the real estate market from triggering a financial crisis as much as possible. That is to say, our country has already anticipated the possible situation in the real estate market and made plans in advance.
In 2021, China began to implement the guiding prices of second-hand housing in all aspects, and a large number of second-hand housing markets were frozen, and housing speculation funds represented by Shenfangli were successfully locked.
Real estate transactions in China are strictly restricted.
three red lines open to the dealer, centralized land supply to increase land prices, purchase and loan restrictions to combat real estate speculation, steps 8 and 9 have basically achieved a 7788.
There is still the most difficult link left- Land finance.
In addition to the last step of RMB internationalization, the biggest resistance of the 10th, 11th and 12th steps is the land finance that China has long relied on from top to bottom.
Land finance has three layers of meaning:
The first layer is a simple land transfer to contribute local fiscal revenue;
The second layer is the central bank's cooperation with land transfer to place currency into the market;
The third layer is non-standard financing and mortgage.
From local finance to currency issuance, to financing and mortgage, it is all tied to real estate. It is also a difficult point in policy regulation.
The key to solving the dilemma is "real estate tax"!
and real estate tax, as a supplementary means of land fiscal transformation, is on the way to be issued.
Therefore, the subsequent steps starting from step 10 will definitely not be too far away from the day of cashing out.
03
What will happen in the future in real estate?
"Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years of Hexi", today, the real estate market has reached a fork.
Under the general tone of "housing for living, not for speculation"; under the highest strategy of "industrial power, technological power"; under the overall goal of "common prosperity", cities that rely on the real estate economy to drive GDP will gradually expose their prototypes.
The pillar status of real estate will also gradually change!
Common prosperity has risen to a new strategy of national development, and China has transformed from the past "pursuing efficiency" to "pursuing fairness". Real estate is beginning to lock in. Before the upgrading of manufacturing and common prosperity are completed, the suppression of real estate will only become increasingly strict, and the frequency of policies will become increasingly higher.
In a word, regulation will be the main theme of future real estate.
Just, how to adjust it in the future? How to go? Full of too much uncertainty.
I think that, with the actual situation in China, the biggest possibility is to take the combination of the "German model" and the "Singapore model".
Singapore model: a stepped supply system with cheap HDB flats as the core.
forms a step-by-step supply system of "low-rent housing → cheap housing → private residence". By investing a large number of low-rent and cheap houses in the market, we can achieve "there are people who have their own houses".
German model: a ladder supply system with leasing as the core.
More than half of Germans solve their living needs by renting a house. The key lies in the adequate supply of residential buildings, complete rental guarantees, and cracking down on speculation and huge profits.
solves housing problems through the rental market, and at the same time, legislation is used to fully protect the rights of renters ; a large number of people rent houses, and the demand for their own houses is small, so housing prices are naturally controlled.
In the future, China may stabilize housing prices in places where 80% of people live, such as third- and fourth-tier cities and towns, by increasing the supply of low-rent and cheap housing, and cooperating with real estate regulation measures, and allowing everyone to have their own houses. Let housing return to its "residential attributes".
And in places where the other 20% of people live, such as first-tier cities and leading second-tier cities, these urgent needs are very strong, with large population mobility and very expensive land prices. It is difficult to further improve the rental system through tough measures in areas where the rental system is controlled.
When regulating the rental market, protecting the rights of renters, and implementing "equal rights for renting and selling", housing problems are solved through the rental market.
04
Conclusion
In fact, what people really want is not that housing prices will fall sharply, but that local housing prices can match local income, and everyone can live in their own home through personal struggle.
hopes that after putting forward the slogan of common prosperity, people in the city can be freed from housing prices. Instead of being disappointed with reality again and again, and finally lying down.
