Summary
Demand: The production recovery of tire companies has accelerated after the Lantern Festival. Some tire companies have advanced their resumption time, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of tire production. The demand performance of natural rubber is expected to improve.
Inventory: The natural rubber warehouse receipt inventory of the previous period and the natural rubber inventory accumulation range in Qingdao have both narrowed. Considering that the output of new rubber has dropped to the low point of the year and the demand will rebound, the accumulation pressure of natural rubber inventory in the later period is expected Limited, and the absolute volume is still at a low level. Jiaojiao prices are expected to continue to receive support.
We believe that as the supply in production areas drops to a low this year and the start-up of wheel enterprises accelerates, the supply and demand performance of natural rubber is relatively warm. Although the overall market sentiment is still volatile in the near future, there is limited room for rubber prices to fall under the support of low inventories. It is expected that In the short term, natural rubber will fluctuate, and rubber prices will still have upward momentum in the medium term. In the near future, attention will be paid to the resumption of work by tire companies and inventory changes in Qingdao.
operation suggestions: recommends that investors remain cautious and favor long thinking. RU2205 can establish multiple orders in an appropriate amount with the support of 14,000 yuan/ton, and the position is recommended to be controlled at around 10%.
Uncertain risks: Tire companies' resumption of work progress, Qingdao area inventory changes
Market review: Under the influence of market atmosphere, rubber prices fluctuated and fell
This week's double rubber futures price trend was opposite to that of the previous week, and showed a volatile downward trend for most of the time. Later, rubber prices rebounded on Friday. On February 18, the main natural rubber contract RU2205 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 14,310 yuan/ton, and the main contract NR2205 of the Shanghai Energy No. 20 rubber closed at 12,040 yuan/ton. In terms of
spot prices, the spot price of domestic latex has fluctuated and fallen, while the spot price of No. 20 rubber has remained fluctuating. On February 18, the spot price of all latex in Shanghai was 13,450 yuan/ton, and the spot price of all latex in Shandong was 13,450 yuan/ton; the benchmark spot price of STR20 in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was US$1,820/ton.
2 Fundamental analysis of supply and demand
1. Some companies will resume work earlier, and tire production starts will be significantly improved
Tire companies will resume production faster after the Lantern Festival, and some companies will advance their resumption time, and tire production is expected to increase significantly in the future. In the week of February 17, the weekly operating rate of domestic all-steel tires was 33.36%, an increase of 24.74 percentage points from the previous week, and an increase of 15.87 percentage points from the same period in 2021. The weekly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 36.71%, an increase of 24.74 percentage points from the previous week. An increase of 16.22 percentage points and an increase of 16.24 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021.
2. The performance of the auto market was weak due to holiday factors, and the market faces opportunities for structural recovery in the later period.
Affected by holiday factors, the auto market retail sales dropped significantly year-on-year in the first half of February. However, with the return of migrant workers, the auto market faces better opportunities for structural recovery. opportunity. According to the latest data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first two weeks of February (January to 13th), the average daily retail sales of the domestic passenger car market was approximately 26,100 units, a decrease of 56% from the same period in January and a decrease of 33% from the same period in 2021.
3. The accumulation rate of natural rubber inventory has slowed down, and the inventory pressure has been relatively eased.
The domestic natural rubber warehouse receipt inventory and the inventory accumulation rate in Qingdao have both slowed down this week. As the production area enters the cut-off period and the downstream construction accelerates, the inventory The cumulative range is expected to further narrow, and the pressure on natural rubber inventories is relatively eased. On February 18, the natural rubber futures warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 236,010 tons, an increase of 3,250 tons from February 11, and an increase of 68,070 tons from the same period in 2020; the Shanghai Energy No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipt inventory was 85,267 tons, an increase of 3,250 tons from February 11. An increase of 4,839 tons, an increase of 23,931 tons compared with the same period in 2020. According to Zhuochuang Information, on February 11, 2022, the total inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao was 402,500 tons, an increase of 21,800 tons from the previous week; of which the inventory in the bonded area was 113,400 tons, an increase of 5,800 tons from the previous week, and general trade inventory It was 289,100 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week.
4. Raw material prices in the Hat Yai market continue to rise, with strong rubber cost support.
As Thailand's main production areas gradually enter a period of low production, the decline in new rubber output causes raw material prices to continue to rise, and natural rubber cost support is strong. On February 18, the price of glue in Hat Yai, Thailand was 66 baht/kg, a new high since mid-March 2021; the price of cup glue was 50.4 baht/kg, a new high since May 2017.
Three price difference analysis
1. Natural rubber futures price difference (spot-futures)
From February 14 to February 18, the price difference between the main natural rubber spot and futures contracts fluctuated between 1,740 yuan/ton and 1,965 tons; the average price difference during the week It was 1,857 yuan/ton, which was 56 yuan/ton lower than the week before the holiday. On February 18, the current price difference of natural rubber futures was 1,740 yuan/ton, which was 160 yuan/ton narrower than the previous trading day.
2. Natural rubber intertemporal price difference (RU05 contract-RU09 contract)
From February 14 to February 18, the price difference between the RU2205 contract and the RU2209 contract fluctuated between -185 yuan/ton and -210 yuan/ton; the average price difference during the week It was -193 yuan/ton, 11 yuan/ton narrower than the week before the holiday. On February 18, the price difference between 5-9 natural rubber was -210 yuan/ton, which was 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day.
3. Price difference between full latex and No. 20 rubber (full latex-No. 20 rubber)
From February 14 to February 18, the spot price difference between full latex and No. 20 rubber fluctuated between 1888.9 yuan/ton and 2167.66 yuan/ton; weekly The average price difference was 1,990.35 yuan/ton, narrowing by 191.47 yuan/ton from the previous week. On February 18, the spot price difference between full latex and No. 20 rubber was 1,921.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.67 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
From February 14 to February 18, the price difference between the main contract of natural rubber and the main contract of No. 20 rubber fluctuated between 2,270 yuan/ton and 2,665 yuan/ton; the weekly average price difference was 2,504 yuan/ton, narrowing by 262 yuan/ton from the previous week. Yuan / ton. On February 18, the price difference between the main contracts of latex and No. 20 rubber futures was 2,270 yuan/ton, which was 125 yuan/ton narrower than the previous trading day.
Four market outlook: Low inventories continue to support rubber prices, and there is still upward momentum in the medium term.
In terms of supply, Thailand’s main production areas continue to transition to a low-production period. Before domestic production areas start a new round of rubber tapping, most of the world’s main natural rubber production areas With cutting suspended, the supply of natural rubber will drop to a low point during the year. On the demand side, the production recovery of tire companies has accelerated after the Lantern Festival. Some tire companies have advanced their resumption time, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of tire production. The demand performance of natural rubber is expected to improve. In terms of inventory, the natural rubber warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the natural rubber inventory accumulation range in Qingdao have both narrowed. Considering that new rubber output has dropped to the low point of the year and demand will rebound, the pressure on natural rubber inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be limited. , Jiaojiao prices are expected to continue to receive support while the absolute volume is still at a low level. On the whole, we believe that as the supply in production areas drops to the low point of the year and the start-up of wheel enterprises accelerates, the supply and demand performance of natural rubber is relatively warm. Although the overall market sentiment is still volatile in the near future, there is room for lower rubber prices under the support of low inventory. Limited, it is expected that natural rubber will fluctuate in the short term, and rubber prices will still have upward momentum in the medium term. In the near future, attention will be paid to the resumption of work by tire companies and inventory changes in Qingdao.
strategy
recommends that investors remain cautious and favor long thinking. RU2205 can establish multiple orders in an appropriate amount with the support of 14,000 yuan/ton, and the position is recommended to be controlled at around 10%.
This article comes from CFC Energy Chemicals Research
