The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for 67 days. Russia's position and expectations are undergoing subtle changes.
On May 1, local time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov expressed several clear views on the current Russia-Ukraine conflict situation in an interview with Italian Mediaset TV station:
1. Russia’s demands for Zelensky are not Kneeling down and surrendering, it ordered government forces and Nazi forces to release detained civilians and stop confrontation;
2, Russia has no intention of overthrowing the Zelensky regime .
"Changing the current regime in Ukraine is not our purpose. This (subverting the regime of other countries) is the specialty of the Americans, and they do it all over the world."
3, Zelensky was originally expected to become a "peaceful president." Just as he envisioned during the campaign. However, after taking power, he openly declared that he would never implement the Minsk Agreement, as if implementing the agreement would bring disaster to the Ukrainian country and people.
4. The development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine to this day has something to do with the "double standards" of the United States and European countries, as well as the instigation and instigation of the Kiev authorities.
"Regarding Ukraine's reneging on the agreement, other signatories of the agreement and those countries that voted in favor of the Security Council have remained silent. They said that if they don't want to implement it, then just don't implement it, and let Russia implement it."
5 , once again reiterated that the purpose of Russia's special military operation against Ukraine is "two major guarantees": first, to ensure that the people of eastern Ukraine are safe and sound, and are not threatened by the militarization and nazification of the Ukrainian authorities; second, to ensure that there will be no violence in Ukraine Security threats to the Russian Federation.
6, made it clear that Russia does not deliberately seek to achieve "iconic results" before May 9, Victory Day .
Lavrov’s above-mentioned statement seems to be contradictory in two ways: First, since Russia does not ask Zelensky to surrender, why does it ask him to order an end to the confrontation? Doesn't stopping resistance mean surrendering and admitting defeat? Secondly, the Zelensky authorities have a very firm anti-Russian and pro-Western political stance, and have publicly claimed that the Azov forces are not Nazis, but national defenders. How can the "two major guarantees" be achieved without overthrowing the Zelensky regime? "?
In fact, these two contradictions exactly reflect the subtle changes in Russia's expectations for the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war. At the beginning of the war, international analysts generally believed that Russia's highest goal was to completely overthrow the Kiev regime, establish a pro-Russian regime that was completely obedient to Moscow, and bring the entire Ukraine back into its sphere of influence. The minimum goal was to achieve control of the Udon region and liberate the region's Russian-speaking residents from the Nazis.
Now Russia has obviously shifted to the minimum target requirement. It does not seek to change the regime in Kiev, but only seeks actual control over the eastern Ukraine . What Lavrov requested to stop the confrontation was to ask Zelensky to stop confronting the Russian army in eastern Ukraine. Ensuring that Ukraine does not pose a threat to Russia's national security can be achieved by the Zelensky administration's commitment to maintain military neutrality between Russia and NATO .
The conflict in Ukraine is ultimately a strategic contest between Russia and the United States. Following the visit of US Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin to Ukraine a week ago, the third most powerful figure in the United States and Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi paid a lightning visit to Kyiv, met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and once again conveyed the It is a signal that the United States firmly supports Zelensky in confronting Russia to the end.
As the United States gradually moves from behind the scenes to the front, Russia is also adjusting its strategic goals and expectations, trying to control the conflict within a controllable range. In addition to shrinking the front line in the early stage, the position on the issue of clearing out the remaining defenders of the Azov Steel Plant in Mariupol has also loosened. First, Putin ordered to stop the assault, and then agreed to the United Nations and the Red Cross to participate in the evacuation of civilians in the factory area.
html On May 1, the Russian military said that more than 80 civilians (Ukraine said there were more than 100) were evacuated from the factory area.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov knocked on the sidelines, saying that the reason why the defenders of the Azov Steel Plant have been stubbornly resisting, and the reason why Zelensky tried every means to lure people at all costs, all fully prove that there are indeed Western in the steel plant. Mercenaries and possibly even active duty officers of Western armies.
Lavrov said it relatively politely and tactfully. RIA Novosti quoted the news of Usmanova, a female worker who had just evacuated from the "Azov Steel Plant", saying that she heard from Uzbek soldiers that there was some kind of general hiding in the underground bunker, from mercenaries, directly Single line contact with Zelensky himself.
It seems that there is a "big fish" hidden in the basement of the "Azov Steel Plant", which is not groundless. Yermak, the chief of staff of the President of Ukraine, said on May 1 that all trapped civilians and soldiers would be rescued and "no one will be left behind."
However, Yermak also admitted that the rescue work has only progressed to the first stage, and the next task is still very arduous.
The trapped Azov armed forces, especially Western mercenaries, are a trump card held by Russia and an important bargaining chip in Russia's negotiations with the West and the Zelenskiy authorities. Russia will not let the duck it gets fly easily.
News released by Ukraine stated that after the evacuation of two groups of civilians, the Russian army stepped up its offensive against the "Azov Steel Plant" on May 1. The "big fish" is about to surface, and the whole world is waiting to see.
