html Industrial enterprise profits and exports from November to February show that China's overall demand is relatively resilient, but cost pressures are highlighted against the background of high upstream prices. Looking at the segmented sectors, profits have been redistributed between the upstream and midstream, and profits have begun to concentrate towards the upstream. Once stable growth begins to take off, against the background of tight supply and low inventories, profits will further accumulate upstream and the midstream will be further squeezed. Therefore, in the context of this year's year of stable growth, we should pay more attention to the upstream links of each industrial chain. Pay attention to the core industry and stock selection logic of "demand grows steadily and profits go upstream".
Core views
[Opinions and Strategies·Market Discussion] What information does the latest industrial enterprise profits and exports reveal? 
) Overall, -February industrial enterprise income remained stable, basically consistent with industrial added value , showing the resilience of overall demand, but the profit growth rate has dropped significantly compared with the previous value, indicating that costs have increased pressure. ) In terms of sectors, commodity prices are high, and the mining industry contributes the main profit increase; the growth rate of the manufacturing industry has turned negative again, and some parts such as high-tech manufacturing of electrical machinery have remained resilient; the consumer sector has been boosted by the Spring Festival, and some parts such as textiles , food manufacturing, etc. have been significantly improved. ) Breaking down the profit structure and looking at , the internal costs of the manufacturing industry are rising, the expense ratio continues to fall, and the overall gross profit margin has reached a downward turning point. The gross profit margins of midstream equipment, cycle manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, optional consumption, and TMT manufacturing industries all fell significantly, while the gross profit margins of mandatory consumption increased significantly. In terms of operations, the company's asset-liability ratio increased slightly and inventories decreased. ) Based on the above, the core reason why appears is the mismatch between the supply side and the demand side. In the context of this year's steady growth, we should pay more attention to the upstream links of each industrial chain, such as energy, industrial metals, energy metals and minerals; or other upstream links that have strict supply constraints and continue to increase prices, such as electrolytic aluminum , Industrial silicon , silicon wafers, semiconductor materials , etc. Pay attention to the core industry and individual stock selection logic of "demand comes from steady growth and profits go upstream".
[Review·Inside View] Most indexes in the A-share market showed a downward trend after oscillating sideways this week. The main reason is that 1) some investors LPR expectations of interest rate cuts have been disappointed; 2) the recent pressure to control the epidemic in some areas of the country Significantly increased, investors are worried about the obvious negative impact on the economy; 3) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues; 4) In the early stage of the market, with favorable policies, there is also a need for to dip into again after a short-term rebound.
[Mesoview·Prosperity] html In December, the import and export volume of integrated circuits narrowed year-on-year growth, and the cumulative output of mobile communication base stations turned positive year-on-year. Integrated circuit import and export volume narrowed year-on-year growth, trade deficit year-on-year growth narrowed; LED chip Taiwan stock revenue growth narrowed in February, smartphone shipments fell year-on-year expansion; January-February Telecom The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of main business income expanded. In February, the cumulative output of mobile communication base stations turned positive year-on-year, and the cumulative output of program-controlled switches turned positive year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of new ship orders from January to February turned negative, and the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative ship orders in hand expanded slightly. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of metal cutting machine tool output from January to February decreased. This week, the prices of steel billet, rebar , and iron ore rose, and the national cement price index fell.
[Funds·Popular] The scale of foreign capital outflows narrowed, and the scale of reductions and planned reductions expanded. The net outflow of funds going north this week was 12.78 billion yuan; the total net inflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 4.54 billion yuan; 4.33 billion newly established partial equity public funds were established, an increase of 1.34 billion from the previous period; net ETF redemptions, corresponding to net There was an outflow of 9.43 billion yuan. In terms of industry preferences, the net purchases of Beishang funds are relatively high in non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, chemicals, etc.; financing funds are net purchases of pharmaceuticals and biology, electrical equipment, food and beverages, etc.; there are more information technology ETF subscriptions, and pharmaceutical ETF redemptions. Return more. The scale of net shareholding reductions by important shareholders expanded; the scale of planned shareholding reductions increased.
[Theme·Wind Direction] Industry Observation this week - hydrogen energy industry medium and long-term plan released, paying attention to the acceleration of hydrogen energy industrialization. Overall, the "Mid- and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" reflects the country's great emphasis on the hydrogen energy industry and clarifies the diverse application ecology of hydrogen energy in transportation, energy storage, power generation, industry and other fields. , which will help accelerate the industrialization of hydrogen energy. It is expected that the field of hydrogen energy will receive more policy support in the future, and it is recommended to pay attention to subdivisions such as hydrogen fuel vehicles and hydrogen production by electrolysis of water.
[Data·Valuation] The valuation levels of all A shares this week dropped from last week. PE (TTM) fell 0.2X to 14.5X, which is at the 35.6% quantile of historical valuation levels. The valuations of the sectors have gone up and down. Among them, the valuations of the food and beverage sector have increased more, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors have fallen significantly.
Risk warning: The policy strength is not as strong as expected, and the US dollar appreciates sharply.
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Opinion and Market Discussion - Information revealed by export data and industrial enterprise profit data from January to February
html Industrial enterprise profit growth rate disclosure from November to February, combined with import and export related data from January to February, we can draw many important conclusions .
● Behind the profits of industrial enterprises from January to February - revenue growth remains steady and profits continue to be concentrated in the upstream
html The economic benefits of industrial enterprises from November to February were disclosed, which revealed a lot of key information. -February industrial enterprise income growth of 13.9%, still remains stable, consistent with the industrial added value from January to February, but the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises fell back to 5% from January to February. Profit growth is significantly lower than revenue growth.
From the perspective of major sectors, the profit growth rate of the manufacturing industry was -4.2%, turning to negative growth for the first time since the recovery of the epidemic, while the mining industry growth rate was 132%, continuing to maintain high growth, and the profit growth rate of public utilities is -45%. The profit margin of the upstream mining industry is significantly higher than that of the manufacturing industry. The proportion of mining in industrial enterprises continues to increase.
From the perspective of operating income profit margin, calculated according to National Bureau of Statistics data, the manufacturing operating income profit margin was 5.2% from January to February, down 1.1 percentage points from December 2021, Mining industry operating income The profit margin was 24.5%, the second highest since October 2021. Utilities' overall operating income margin was 2.8%. The profit margin of the upstream mining industry is significantly higher than that of the manufacturing industry.
Within the manufacturing field, in terms of sales gross profit margin, the overall gross profit margin of the manufacturing industry has reached a downward turning point. The gross profit margins of midstream equipment, cyclical product manufacturing, medicine, optional consumption, and TMT manufacturing all fell significantly from January to February. Only the gross profit margin of consumer staples increased significantly. The conclusion for sales profit margin is similar.
The cyclical product manufacturing industry also faces the same problem. Without mines, the profitability of the purely processed cyclical product manufacturing industry will also deteriorate. Therefore, many cyclical product manufacturing companies such as cement, steel, and aluminum products are unwilling to expand production.
Of course, in the face of cost pressure, China's manufacturing companies have also begun to raise prices. Judging from the export data from January to February, after excluding price factors, the export growth rate was 2.2%, far lower than 15% The growth rate of export value, most of which contributes to the export growth rate, comes from the increase in export prices. The current RMB exchange rate is relatively strong. If the product prices are further raised, the competitiveness in the global export market will face certain pressure.
From the above information, it can be seen that the current gross profit margin of the upstream mining industry remains high, the price increase of necessary consumer goods has continued to rise smoothly, and the profitability is good. However, it also reflects the current pressure of inflation from the side. Judging from the current trend of commodity prices, whether it is upstream energy, minerals, or agricultural products, prices continue to rise. The trend of profit concentration towards upstream and necessities has not changed much. If China makes further efforts to stabilize growth in the future, the upstream energy, minerals, and agricultural products sectors will benefit even more in this cycle. "Demand will grow steadily, and profits will go upstream."
● Insufficient supply of upstream resources - a three-foot-long freeze is not a day's cold
Due to multiple reasons such as resource endowment and excess production capacity, China's mining industry investment completion began to decline significantly after 2012, and fell to negative growth in 2015. In 2019, the growth period turned positive, but after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, it turned negative again. In the past 10 years, investment in the mining industry has remained at a low level most of the time.
After supply-side structural reform accelerated in 2017 and the "double carbon" goal was proposed in 2020, traditional "excess production capacity" industries and high-energy-consuming industries stopped rapid expansion. According to statistics based on the caliber of listed companies, spandex , copper, The ongoing construction projects and capital expenditures of industries represented by the aluminum, coking coal, coke, and petroleum industries have all turned to negative growth.
In 2021, the emphasis on dual energy consumption control goals has caused the production expansion of high-energy-consuming industries to be constrained by energy. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the cost of upstream raw materials has continued to rise, and demand has been sluggish. Since this year, coke, non-ferrous metals, crude steel, cement The output of high-energy-consuming industries has turned to negative growth.
Due to increasing cost pressure and average demand, the above-mentioned industries have reduced the import of raw materials, making the domestic supply of raw materials tighter.
As time goes by, starting from the second half of 2021, the export growth rate of typical resource countries (such as Russia, Australia, Banana) began to be significantly higher than that of typical manufacturing countries (such as China).
Although they are making a lot of money, these countries have low production expansion efficiency due to various reasons. After 2015, global capital expenditures on resources and energy have remained low, and the proposal of global dual carbon targets has also suppressed traditional energy sources. and capital expenditure drivers in energy-intensive industries. The outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 has formed another phased constraint on global capital expenditure. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict breaks out in 2022, it will form more profound constraints on global energy and mineral capital expenditures.
●Manufacturing sector profits
· major industries
Looking further within the manufacturing industry, the profit of the consumer manufacturing sector has recovered significantly. Here we use the three-month rolling average growth rate. Due to the high pressure on raw material costs, the profit growth rate of cyclical product manufacturing has fallen back from the high level. The three-month rolling average growth rate has dropped from the previous value of 2.6% to -11.0%; the midstream equipment field is in Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival shutdown and the spread of the epidemic, the three-month rolling average profit growth rate further dropped to -2.2% from the previous value of -1.7%. Driven by Spring Festival consumption, both optional consumption and necessary consumption performed well. The average profit growth rate of the optional consumption sector in the three months was 2.0%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value; the growth rate of necessary consumption increased from 3.7% to the previous value. % expanded by 5.3 percentage points to 9.0%. The three-month rolling average growth rate of the pharmaceutical sector narrowed to 29.5% from the previous value of 71.3%. The three-month average profit growth rate of the TMT sector narrowed from 39.3% to 32.0%, continuing to maintain a high growth rate.
· Subdivided industries
In the subdivided industries, most industries have achieved positive growth in revenue. Oil and gas mining, coal mining, non-ferrous metal smelting, chemical industry, etc. in the energy field have achieved rapid growth; in the consumer sector, alcoholic beverages, textiles, There have been significant improvements in food and beverages, culture, education and art. Among 1 industries, 40 industries achieved positive growth in operating income, 22 industries achieved year-on-year profit growth or narrowed losses, and 15 of them had profit growth rates exceeding 10%.
In the energy sector, commodity prices are at high levels, and the sector’s role in driving overall profits has been further enhanced. Despite the domestic implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and stable prices and the gradual easing of supply constraints, the price of resource products peaked and fell in December last year. However, since the beginning of the year, driven by the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and strong expectations for stable growth, 1 -Commodity prices, especially energy and chemical product prices, continued to rise in February. Data show that from January to February, the profits of the mining industry increased by 1.32 times year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly higher than the industrial average. The profits of oil and gas mining, coal mining and dressing and other industries increased by 1.57 times and 1.55 times year-on-year respectively, and the driving effects were further improved than in December last year. Enhanced; Driven by the rising prices of non-ferrous metals, chemical products, etc., the profits of non-ferrous metal smelting, chemical industry and other industries increased by 63.8% and 27.3% respectively year-on-year, both achieving rapid growth.
Consumer goods sector: Affected by the boost in consumption during the Spring Festival, profits in some consumer goods industries have achieved rapid growth, and the year-on-year growth rate has expanded. Looking at the three-month rolling average growth rate of , the year-on-year growth rates of both optional and required consumption have expanded. Among the sub-sectors, from January to February, the profits of industries such as alcoholic beverages, textiles, food manufacturing, culture, education, industry and beauty increased by 32.5% (previous value 51.3%), 13.1% (previous value 1.59%), and 12.3% (11.89%) respectively year-on-year. ), 10.5% (28.12%). On the one hand, driven by factors such as the Spring Festival boosting consumption, the profits of some basic consumer goods industries such as food manufacturing have grown rapidly; on the other hand, due to the strong spread of omicron and the increased demand for epidemic prevention materials, the profits of the textile industry have increased significantly year-on-year. expand. In addition, benefiting from the marginal relaxation of real estate policies, the year-on-year growth rate of total profits in the furniture manufacturing industry narrowed from -40.09 in the previous period to -15.2%, a significant month-on-month improvement.
The high-tech manufacturing industry has been differentiated. Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting, and transportation manufacturing have improved significantly. Instrument manufacturing and TMT manufacturing have performed relatively weakly. General equipment and special equipment manufacturing have maintained high resilience. htmlIn December, profits from electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting, and transportation manufacturing increased by 5.7% year-on-year (previous value 3.83%), 63.8% (previous value -26.14%), -34.7 (previous value -144.55%), and month-on-month average growth. There is a significant improvement. The February profit of instrument manufacturing and TMT manufacturing increased by -14.9% and -7.3% respectively year-on-year, which was a significant decline from the previous values of 1.93% and 104.45%. The profits of general equipment and special equipment increased by -15.7% (previous value -12.7%) and 4.0% (previous value 11.55%) respectively in February.
· The profit structure is broken down: costs rise, and the expense rate continues to drop
In terms of volume and price, the increase in volume is the main driver, PPI declines slightly, and the monthly growth of corporate operating income expands.2 The industrial added value in March increased by 12.8% year-on-year, an increase of 8.5 percentage points from 4.3% in December; the PPI price of all industrial products increased by 8.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from 10.3% in December. Under the combined influence of the volume increase and price decrease of , the operating income of industrial enterprises has increased significantly. From January to February, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 19.40 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from December last year.
has further split its profit structure, with costs rising, expenses falling, and profit margins slightly reduced. As raw material prices remain high, corporate costs continue to rise. The cost per 100 yuan of operating income of industrial enterprises increased from 83.74 to 83.91; the total operating costs incurred were 16.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.0%; but on the other hand, enterprises Expenses continued to fall. In February, the expenses per 100 yuan of operating income of industrial enterprises dropped to 8.27 from 8.59 in December. Due to the increase in raw material prices, which has brought about a large increase in costs, the operating income profit margin of industrial enterprises increased by 5.97% year-on-year, further narrowing compared with the previous value of 6.81%.
· Operational aspects: Inventory reduction, debt ratio increased slightly
From the perspective of corporate assets and liabilities, the year-on-year growth of corporate assets and liabilities has expanded, and the asset-liability ratio has increased slightly, but overall stability. At the end of , the assets of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled 142.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; liabilities totaled 0.03 trillion, an increase of 10.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous value; all Investors’ equity totaled 62.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The asset-liability ratio was 56.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of 56.3.
Enterprise inventories have decreased, the turnover of finished products has slowed down, and the recovery period of accounts receivable has increased. As of February, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises were 18.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared with the previous value of 13.3%; the inventory of finished products was 5.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared with the previous value. narrowed by 0.3 percentage points. The turnover of finished goods slowed down, with the number of days increasing to 19.8 days from the previous value of 16.8 days; the average recovery period of accounts receivable increased from the previous value of 49.5 days to 58.3 days.
● Summary - The total demand is acceptable, the supply of upstream energy resources and agricultural products is insufficient, and profits are concentrated upstream
Judging from the operating conditions of industrial enterprises from January to February, although the revenue growth rate has remained stable, showing that China's overall demand is resilient, but The profit growth rate was significantly lower than the revenue growth rate, indicating that the overall cost pressure increased significantly. Looking at the major sectors, the profit growth rate and profit rate of the upstream mining industry remained high, while the profit rate of the manufacturing industry dropped significantly, and the profit growth rate turned negative. This occurred against the background of stable revenue growth, indicating that profits were between the upstream and midstream industries. There was redistribution among enterprises, and profits began to tilt upstream. The core reason for this situation in
is the mismatch between the supply side and the demand side. Domestically, due to the supply-side structural reform that began in 2017, the dual-carbon target was proposed in 2020, further reducing investment in high-energy-consuming and high-pollution industries. In addition, China's crude oil, minerals and other resources are highly dependent on imports, and it is unable to independently determine production capacity and output. Starting from 2021, dual control of energy consumption will become a very important goal, so the upstream supply will basically remain stable. However, midstream continued to expand production after 2017, and experienced two rounds of stable growth in 2017 and 2020. Stable growth will become a very important task in 2022, and the demand for midstream and downstream continues to expand.
Globally, after the global epidemic broke out in 2020, European and American central banks implemented quantitative easing of demand, forming a round of demand stimulation. On the supply side, global dual-carbon targets and bias against traditional industries have led to upstream capital expenditures remaining relatively sluggish after 2014. The damage to the supply chain caused by the outbreak and the capital expenditure on global energy and minerals after the Russia-Ukraine conflict will create new pressures, and the situation of insufficient upstream supply will be difficult to alleviate.
Therefore, the current commodity prices maintain a stable upward trend. If China's steady growth begins to take off significantly, upstream energy resource prices may rise further against the background of tight supply and low inventories, which will make this round of steady growth in profits There will be further accumulation upstream, and the midstream link will not be able to directly raise prices to consumers, and profitability will be squeezed. In the downstream link, according to consumer demand, necessary consumption continues to increase prices, and profitability may improve. Optional consumer prices are more difficult to transmit, and profitability is squeezed. Therefore, in the context of this year's steady growth, we should pay more attention to the upstream links of each industrial chain, such as energy, industrial metals, energy metals and minerals; or other upstream links that have strict supply constraints and continue to increase prices, such as electrolytic aluminum , industrial silicon, silicon wafers, semiconductor materials, etc. attaches great importance to the core industry and individual stock selection logic of "demand comes from steady growth and profits go upstream".
2 Review·Inside View - Shock and decline, market shrinkage
Most of the major A-share indexes fell this week, among which the leading technology, large market growth, and consumer leading indexes all fell by more than 3%. The value of small caps increased, and the value of mid-caps increased. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 experienced relatively small declines. This week, most indexes showed a downward trend after fluctuating sideways. In terms of transactions, the average daily transaction volume this week was 951 billion yuan, and the average daily transaction volume shrank significantly compared with the previous week. Southbound funds have a net inflow of HK$32.65 billion into Hong Kong stocks this week, and northbound funds have a net outflow of RMB 12.78 billion from A shares this week.
Most indexes in the A-share market this week showed a trend of decline after fluctuating sideways. The main reasons are that 1) the one-year and five-year LPR interest rates announced by the central bank on Monday did not fall, and some investors' expectations of lowering the LPR were disappointed. ; 2) The pressure to control the epidemic has increased significantly in some areas of the country recently, and new confirmed cases have increased significantly. The specific direction of follow-up prevention and control policies is still unclear, and investors are worried about the obvious negative impact on the economy; 3) The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues; 4 ) In the early stage, due to favorable policies, the market also had the need to dip into the bottom twice after a short-term rebound.
From an industry perspective, most of Shenwan's first-level industries fell this week, and 10 first-level industries rose. Coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and real estate were the top gainers, and computers, electrical equipment, and building materials were the top losers. From the reasons for the rise and fall, Look, the main reasons for the rise in industries this week are real estate (stable growth, favorable policies), coal (price increases), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (food security, agricultural product price increases, risk aversion), and the top declining industries are mainly computers ( TMT style led the overall decline), power equipment (new energy rebounded for the second time), building materials, etc.
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Medium View·Prosperity - The cumulative output of mobile communication base stations in February turned positive year-on-year, prices of iron ore and other products increased
htmlIn December, the year-on-year increase in the import and export volume of integrated circuits narrowed, and the trade deficit narrowed year-on-year. The value of integrated circuit exports in February was US$11.005 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.09%. The increase narrowed 5.84 percentage points from the previous month. The monthly value increased by 47.52% compared with the same period in 2020; the cumulative export value of integrated circuits from January to February increased year-on-year. 27.70%.
html LED chip Taiwan stock revenue growth in December narrowed year-on-year. LED chip Taiwan stock revenue was NT$2.527 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.91%, and the growth rate was 5.39 percentage points smaller than the previous month.
htmlDecember multi-layer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) Taiwan stock revenue increased year-on-year. Taiwanese multilayer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) revenue was NT$14.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.29%, an increase of 6.59 percentage points from the previous month.
html The year-on-year decline in smartphone shipments in December expanded. smartphone shipments in December were 14.549 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 31.80%, and the decline was 13.6 percentage points larger than January; the cumulative value of smartphone shipments from January to February was 46.915 million units, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 23.00%. The decline expanded by 4.8 percentage points from the previous month.
html The cumulative year-on-year growth in telecommunications main business income from November to February expanded. The cumulative revenue of telecommunications main business from January to February was 258.6 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 9%, and the growth rate expanded by 1 percentage point from January to December last year.
htmlThe number of Internet data center business license projects increased at a slower rate than the same period last year in December. The number of Internet data center business license projects in was 6,886, a year-on-year increase of 40.19%, and the growth rate narrowed by 0.85 percentage points from the previous month.
html The cumulative output of mobile communication base stations in December turned positive year-on-year. From January to February 2022, my country's mobile communication base station output was 1.023 million channels, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 52.90%, and a cumulative year-on-year expansion of 92.30 percentage points from December 2021.
html The cumulative output of program-controlled switches in December turned positive year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to February 2022 was 1.001 million lines, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 28.70%, and a cumulative year-on-year expansion of 30.70 percentage points from December 2021.
html The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of new ship orders from November to February turned negative, and the year-on-year growth rate of the cumulative number of handheld ship orders expanded slightly. The cumulative value of new ship orders received from January to February was 5.65 million deadweight tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 17.03%, and the growth rate narrowed by 122.15 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The cumulative value of on-hand ship orders in February was 97.90 million deadweight tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 38.85%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points from the previous month.
html The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of metal cutting machine tool output from November to February decreased. The cumulative output of metal cutting machine tools from to February was 89,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and the growth rate narrowed by 22.0 percentage points from the previous month.
htmlThe cumulative output of special packaging equipment from November to February turned negative year-on-year. The cumulative output of special packaging equipment from to February was 137,400 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.70%, and the growth rate narrowed by 63.80 percentage points from January to December last year.
The prices of steel billet, rebar and iron ore increased this week. As of March 25, the steel billet price index increased by 1.51% week-on-week to 4786.0 yuan/ton; the national HRB400 20mm rebar price increased by 0.69% week-on-week to 4987.0 yuan/ton; the iron ore price index increased by 1.28% week-on-week to 542.67 .
The national cement price index fell. As of March 25, the national cement price index fell by 0.43% to 172.07 points; the Yangtze River cement price index fell by 0.28% to 174.89; the cement price index in North China fell by 1.28% week-on-week to 172.11, and the cement price index in East China fell by 0.30 week-on-week. % to 175.64; the cement price index in the southwest region fell 1.07% week-on-week to 157.40; the cement price index in the central and southern region fell 0.16% week-on-week to 177.55.
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Funds·Popular - The scale of foreign capital outflows has narrowed, and the scale of reductions and planned reductions has expanded
Judging from the capital flow situation throughout the week, this week there has been a net outflow of funds from the north, a net inflow of financing funds, and newly established partial stocks Public funds rose, and ETFs saw net redemptions. Specifically, there was a net outflow of 12.78 billion yuan from Beijing Capital this week; a total net inflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 4.54 billion yuan; 4.33 billion new partial equity public funds were established, an increase of 1.34 billion from the previous period; ETF net redemptions , corresponding to a net outflow of 9.43 billion yuan.
From the perspective of net ETF subscriptions, there are net redemptions of ETFs and broad index ETFs. Among them, the CSI 500 ETF has the most redemptions; there are mixed subscriptions and redemptions of industry ETFs, among which information technology ETFs have more subscriptions and pharmaceutical ETFs have more redemptions. . Specifically, the overall net redemption of stock ETFs was 2.82 billion units. Among them, CSI 300, GEM ETF, CSI 500 ETF, SSE 50 ETF, and Shuangchuang 50 ETF had a net redemption of 20 million shares, a net redemption of 790 million shares, a net redemption of 830 million shares, and a net redemption of 760 million shares respectively. , net redemption of 90 million shares. In terms of industry, information technology ETFs had a net subscription of 970 million units; consumer ETFs had a net subscription of 50 million units; pharmaceutical ETFs had a net redemption of 490 million units; brokerage ETFs had a net subscription of 360 million units; financial real estate ETFs had a net redemption of 240 million units; and military industry ETFs had a net redemption of 240 million units. There were 30 million subscriptions; 20 million raw material ETF net redemptions; 340 million new energy and smart car ETF net subscriptions.
The scale of newly established partial stock public funds this week rebounded from the previous period, with 4.33 billion newly established partial stock funds.
This week (March 21-March 25), the net outflow of northbound funds was 12.78 billion yuan, and the net outflow amount was 3.91 billion yuan smaller than the previous period. In terms of industry preferences, Beijing Capital's net purchases of non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, chemicals, etc. were relatively high, with net purchases of 1.00 billion yuan, 960 million yuan, and 730 million yuan respectively; concentrated sales of food and beverages, non-bank finance, Public utilities, etc., had net sales of -5.12 billion yuan, -1.74 billion yuan, and -1.39 billion yuan.
In terms of individual stocks, the ones with higher net purchases by Beishang funds include China Merchants Bank , Zijin Mining , Guodian Nari , etc.; the ones with higher net sales include Kweichow Moutai , Wuliangye , China Ping An , etc.
In terms of financing, the net inflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 4.54 billion yuan. From the perspective of industry preferences, financing funds this week concentrated on buying pharmaceuticals and biological products, with net purchases reaching 2.52 billion yuan. Other industries with the highest net purchases mainly include electrical equipment, food and beverages, transportation, etc.; net sales Mainly non-ferrous metals, chemicals, non-bank finance, etc. From the perspective of individual stocks, stocks with higher net purchases of financing include Trina Solar , Industrial Bank , Fosun Pharma , etc., and stocks with higher net sales mainly include Ping An of China, Guanghui Energy , LONGi , etc.
From the perspective of capital needs, the scale of net shareholding reductions by important shareholders has expanded; the scale of planned shareholding reductions has increased. This week, important shareholders of increased their holdings in the secondary market by 1.52 billion yuan and reduced their holdings by 11.43 billion yuan, with a net reduction of 9.91 billion yuan. The scale of net reductions expanded. Among them, the only industries with net increase in holdings are communications and leisure services; industries with higher net holdings include electronics, electrical equipment, chemicals, etc. The planned reduction announced this week is 23.73 billion yuan, an increase from the previous period.
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Topic·Wind Direction - The medium and long-term plan for the hydrogen energy industry was released, focusing on the acceleration of hydrogen energy industrialization
The market fell this week, with the Wind All-A Index falling 1.41% for the week, the GEM Index falling 2.8%, and the CSI 300 falling 2.14%.The top gains this week were mainly related to gold, Guangdong’s state-owned assets reform, new urbanization and other related topics.
Thematic events worthy of attention this week and next are:
(1) Domestic software - Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Software business revenue in January-February increased by 11.6% year-on-year to 1,179.2 billion yuan
March 24, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology news, January-February, my country's software business revenue was 1,179.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. The growth rate was 6.1 points lower than that of 2021, and 8 percentage points higher than the two-year average growth rate of the same period in 2020 and 2021. From January to February, the total profit of the software industry was 133.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. The growth rate was 15.2 points lower than that of 2021, and 11.8 percentage points lower than the two-year average growth rate of the same period in 2020 and 2021.
(2) Digital RMB - Central Bank: Solidly promote the digital RMB research and development pilot and orderly expand the scope of the pilot
On March 24, the People's Bank of China held a video conference on currency, gold, silver and security work in 2022. The meeting requested that in 2022, the People's Bank of China's currency security system should make every effort to ensure the supply of cash, consolidate and form a long-term mechanism for rectifying the rejection of cash, continue to improve the cleanliness of RMB in circulation, and further build a stronger defense line against counterfeit currency. We will solidly advance the digital RMB research and development pilot, expand the scope of the pilot in an orderly manner, continue to improve the design and use, and gradually establish and improve the management system framework.
(3) UHV - Construction of two major UHV projects in East and Central my country started.
html On March 24, it was learned from the State Grid that the Fuzhou-Xiamen and Zhumadian-Wuhan 1000 kV UHV AC projects started construction on the 24th. Both projects adopt my country's independently developed and internationally leading ultra-high voltage transmission technology, which has the advantages of large transmission capacity, long distance, low loss, and small land area. The core technology and equipment are independently controllable, intelligent construction, and green construction. All have reached a new level.(4) Metaverse - China Mobile: Pay close attention to the technologies and applications related to the Metaverse and have started relevant research
html On March 24, Yang Jie, chairman of China Mobile, said at the performance conference that China Mobile paid close attention to the technologies and applications related to the Metaverse. application and related research has been started. China Mobile is making relevant layouts, including strong infrastructure, computing power network and middle platform capabilities. During the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, China Mobile launched some applications similar to the concept of the metaverse, including Shusapien and Gu Ailing's virtual human, realizing the integration of virtual and real.(5) Hydrogen energy - The National Development and Reform Commission released the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)"
html On March 23, the National Development and Reform Commission released the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)." The plan points out that we will accelerate the technological innovation of proton exchange membrane fuel cells, develop key materials, improve main performance indicators and mass production capabilities, and continue to improve the reliability, stability, and durability of fuel cells. Focus on the key links and major issues in the development of the hydrogen energy industry, and formulate and issue relevant policies in the aspects of hydrogen energy standard management, hydrogen energy infrastructure construction and operation management, key core technology and equipment innovation, hydrogen energy industry diversified application pilot demonstrations, and national standard system construction. policy, create a "1+N" policy system for the development of the hydrogen energy industry, and effectively play the policy guidance role. Focus on promoting the application of hydrogen fuel cells in medium and heavy-duty vehicles, orderly expand the application space of hydrogen fuel cells and other new energy passenger and truck markets, and gradually establish a complementary development model for fuel cell electric vehicles and lithium battery pure electric vehicles. Actively explore the application of fuel cells in ships, aircraft and other fields, promote the research and development of large-scale hydrogen energy aircraft, and continuously increase the scale of the hydrogen energy application market in the transportation field. Promote the industrial application of low-temperature liquid hydrogen storage and transportation, and explore the application of solid-state, cryogenic high-pressure, organic liquid and other storage and transportation methods. Carry out pilot demonstrations such as hydrogen-doped natural gas pipelines and pure hydrogen pipelines. Gradually build a high-density, lightweight, low-cost, and diversified hydrogen energy storage and transportation system. Prioritize the use of industrial by-product hydrogen, encourage nearby consumption, and reduce the supply cost of industrial by-product hydrogen. In areas rich in wind, solar and hydropower resources, carry out renewable energy hydrogen production demonstrations, gradually expand the scale of demonstrations, and explore seasonal energy storage and power grid peak shaving. Promote the research and development of technologies such as hydrogen production by solid oxide electrolytic cells, hydrogen production by photolysis of water, hydrogen production by seawater, and high-temperature hydrogen production by nuclear energy.Explore the establishment of hydrogen production bases in areas with large-scale hydrogen energy applications. Establish a hydrogen energy supply system that focuses on the nearby utilization of industrial by-product hydrogen and hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources. There are about 50,000 fuel cell vehicles in existence, and a number of hydrogen refueling stations have been deployed. The hydrogen production capacity from renewable energy has reached 100,000-200,000 tons/year, becoming an important part of new hydrogen energy consumption and achieving a carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1-2 million tons/year.(6) IPV6 - The Cyberspace Administration of China and others issued a list of IPV6 technology innovation and integrated application pilots
html On March 23, 12 departments including the Central Cyberspace Administration jointly issued a notice to determine the list of IPv6 technology innovation and integrated application pilots, and 22 comprehensive pilot cities and 96 pilot projects. The notice clarifies that each pilot city and pilot unit must formulate specific implementation plans, clarify quantifiable, checkable, and assessable pilot goals and tasks, refine the work plan, and propose specific operational and implementable implementation measures. Accelerate the promotion of continuous breakthroughs in IPv6 key technology innovation, application innovation, service innovation, and management innovation, actively build an "IPv6+" technology industry ecosystem, and form a batch of practices and experiences that can be replicated and promoted. China Mobile, Baidu, and Alipay are on the list.(7) New energy - two departments: Comprehensively promote large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and solar power during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period
On March 22, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" "Modern Energy System Plan" proposes to actively promote the application of new energy vehicles in urban public transportation and other fields. By 2025, new energy vehicles will account for about 20% of new car sales. Optimize the layout of charging infrastructure, comprehensively promote the coordinated development of vehicle piles, promote the two-way interaction of energy and information between electric vehicles and smart grids, and carry out pilot demonstrations of new charging and swapping stations that combine light, storage, charging, and switching. Comprehensively promote the large-scale development and high-quality development of wind power and solar power, give priority to local and nearby development and utilization, accelerate the construction of decentralized wind power and distributed photovoltaic in load centers and surrounding areas, and promote the application of low-wind speed wind power technology. In areas with good wind and solar resource endowments, superior construction conditions, conditions for continuous integrated development, and compliance with regional ecological and environmental protection requirements, orderly promote the centralized development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and accelerate the development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in desert, Gobi, and desert areas. Focus on the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base projects, and actively promote the construction of multi-energy complementary clean energy bases in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, Xinjiang, and northern Hebei. Actively promote the development and utilization of rooftop photovoltaics in industrial parks, economic development zones, etc., and promote the integrated application of photovoltaic power generation and buildings. Carry out demonstrations of hydrogen production from wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Encourage the construction of offshore wind power bases and promote the deployment of offshore wind power in deep water and offshore areas. Actively develop solar thermal power generation.
(8) Energy Storage - The two departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Development of New Energy Storage during the 14th Five-Year Plan"
On March 21, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Issue for the Development of New Energy Storage during the 14th Five-Year Plan" Notice of the Implementation Plan. It is proposed that by 2025, new energy storage will move from the early stage of commercialization to the stage of large-scale development, and will have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. The innovation capability of new energy storage technologies has been significantly improved, the independent controllability level of core technology equipment has been greatly improved, the standard system has been basically improved, the industrial system has become increasingly complete, and the market environment and business model have basically matured. Among them, the performance of electrochemical energy storage technology has been further improved, and the system cost has been reduced by more than 30%; new energy storage technologies such as thermal power and nuclear power unit extraction steam storage that rely on conventional power sources, and hundreds of megawatts of compressed air energy storage technology have been implemented in engineering applications; Mechanical energy storage technologies such as megawatt-level flywheel energy storage have gradually matured; breakthroughs have been made in long-term energy storage technologies such as hydrogen energy storage and hot (cold) energy storage. By 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented. New energy storage core technology and equipment are independently controllable, technological innovation and industrial levels rank among the best in the world, market mechanisms, business models, and standard systems are mature and sound, and are deeply integrated with all aspects of the power system for development, basically meeting the needs of building a new power system and providing comprehensive support The goal of peaking carbon emissions in the energy sector has been achieved as scheduled.Accelerate the construction of the national energy storage development pilot demonstration zone in Qinghai Province; strengthen the tracking and evaluation of the first batch of scientific and technological innovation (energy storage) pilot demonstration projects in Hebei, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu and other places; coordinate and promote the development of new energy storage in the Zhangjiakou Renewable Energy Demonstration Zone. Among them, the performance of electrochemical energy storage technology has been further improved, and the system cost has been reduced by more than 30%; new energy storage technologies such as thermal power and nuclear power unit extraction steam storage that rely on conventional power sources, and hundreds of megawatts of compressed air energy storage technology have been implemented in engineering applications; Mechanical energy storage technologies such as megawatt-level flywheel energy storage have gradually matured; breakthroughs have been made in long-term energy storage technologies such as hydrogen energy storage and hot (cold) energy storage.
(9) Solar power generation - the National Energy Administration released national power industry statistics from January to February
html On March 21, the National Energy Administration released national power industry statistics from January to February, showing that as of the end of February, the national installed power generation capacity was approximately 2.39 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power is approximately 330 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%; the installed capacity of solar power generation is approximately 320 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%. The investment in power supply projects of major power generation enterprises across the country was 47.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, of which hydropower was 12.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%; solar power generation was 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.7%. The investment in power grid projects was 31.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.(10) AR - DingTalk promotes a new generation of AR glasses solution and cooperates with Rokid to release AR glasses for smart offices
html On March 22, DingTalk and AR smart glasses company Rokid reached a cooperation. The two parties will explore the joint construction of XR office and content. Industry solution ecology. DingTalk WorkSpace has been launched on Rokid Air AR smart glasses. At present, after users wear Rokid Air AR smart glasses, they can use DingTalk’s capabilities to work in the virtual space. They can use the characteristics of three-screen collaboration to collaborate on IM, meetings, and documents at the same time. They can also use 3D modeling of AR glasses, etc. Capability access, explore the implementation of virtual reality in remote teaching, equipment inspection, telemedicine and other industry scenarios.Industry Observation this Week - The mid- and long-term plan for the hydrogen energy industry was released, paying attention to the acceleration of hydrogen energy industrialization
● The hydrogen energy industry plan was released
On March 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly released the "Mid- and Long-term Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry" Planning (2021-2035)". The "Plan" puts forward the goals for each stage of the development of the hydrogen energy industry: by 2025, the core technology and manufacturing process will be basically mastered, the number of fuel cell vehicles will be about 50,000, a number of hydrogenation stations will be deployed and built, and the hydrogen production capacity from renewable energy will reach 100,000-200,000 tons/year, achieving carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1-2 million tons/year. By 2030, a relatively complete hydrogen energy industry technological innovation system, clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed to effectively support the realization of the carbon peak goal. By 2035, a hydrogen energy industry system will be formed, and will build a diverse hydrogen energy application ecosystem covering transportation, energy storage, power generation, industry and other fields.
In the "Plan", the three major strategic positionings of hydrogen energy are emphasized:
· Hydrogen energy is an important part of the future national energy system. gives full play to the role of hydrogen energy as an important carrier for large-scale and efficient utilization of renewable energy and its advantages of large-scale and long-term energy storage, promotes the optimal allocation of heterogeneous energy across regions and seasons, and promotes the integration of hydrogen energy, electric energy and thermal energy systems. Promote the formation of a modern energy supply system that is diverse, complementary and integrated.
·Hydrogen energy is an important carrier for energy terminals to achieve green and low-carbon transformation. takes green and low-carbon as its policy, strengthens the green supply of hydrogen energy, creates a diverse hydrogen energy consumption ecology, and improves my country's energy security level. Give full play to the supporting role of hydrogen energy in carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, deeply explore the potential of cross-border applications, guide diversified applications according to local conditions, and promote the transformation of energy consumption in transportation, industry and other energy-consuming terminals and the green development of high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries. , reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
· The hydrogen energy industry is a strategic emerging industry and a key development direction of the future industry. is guided by technological self-reliance and self-reliance, closely follows the new round of global technological revolution and industrial transformation and development trends, strengthens the construction of the hydrogen energy industry innovation system, accelerates breakthroughs in hydrogen energy core technology and key material bottlenecks, accelerates industrial upgrading and growth, and achieves a healthy industrial chain Circular and innovative development.
The "Plan" proposes specific development goals for hydrogen energy, emphasizes the strategic position of hydrogen energy, and promotes the diversified development of hydrogen energy. Recommended hydrogen injection fuel cells, battery cars, and electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen.
● The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle
plan proposes that by 2025, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in my country will reach 50,000. According to statistical data from the National Monitoring and Management Platform for New Energy Vehicles, from 2016 to 2019, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China has increased significantly, from 639 vehicles in 2016 to 6,175 vehicles in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate as high as 114 %; due to the epidemic and other factors, the sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China dropped significantly in 2020, only 1,177 units, a year-on-year decrease of 57%, and the number of vehicles in stock reached 7,352 units. At present, if hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can return to pre-epidemic growth levels, the goal of 50,000 vehicles in 2025 is expected to be achieved ahead of schedule.
The main driving force is the increase in sales volume and the decrease in the price of hydrogen storage systems. The current factor that restricts the large-scale commercialization of hydrogen fuel vehicles is mainly the price of fuel cell systems and hydrogen storage systems. With the continuous expansion of production scale, the prices of fuel cell systems and hydrogen storage systems have dropped significantly. At present, the price of domestic fuel cell systems for commercial vehicles is about 10,000 yuan/kW, and the price of hydrogen storage systems for commercial vehicles is about 5,000 yuan/kg. As the scope and scale of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle applications expand, the scale effect of core components and system prices gradually emerges. The price of commercial vehicle fuel cell systems is expected to drop to 3,500 yuan, 1,000 yuan, and 500 yuan in 2025, 2035, and 2050 respectively. /kW, the price of hydrogen storage systems for commercial vehicles is expected to drop to 3,500, 2,000, and 1,200 yuan/kg in 2025, 2035, and 2050 respectively. As the price of hydrogen storage systems continues to drop, the price of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will also drop in the future, and the market space will further expand.
● The plan for hydrogen production by electrolysis of water
proposes that by 2025, the hydrogen production capacity from renewable energy will reach 100,000-200,000 tons/year. The traditional coal-to-hydrogen production technology route using coal, natural gas and other fossil fuels as raw materials will emit a large amount of carbon dioxide during the hydrogen production process, and the sulfur, phosphorus and other impurities contained in the produced hydrogen will cause corrosion to fuel cell system components. Therefore, there are higher requirements for purification technology. In contrast, hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water has a high purity level, few impurity gases, and is easy to combine with renewable energy. It is the green hydrogen energy supply method that best meets the "double carbon" goal.
The falling cost promotes the increase in penetration rate: The cost of electrolytic hydrogen production has dropped mainly from two aspects: First, the cost of renewable energy power generation such as photovoltaic and wind power has dropped significantly. It can be reduced to 0.3 yuan/kWh by 2025 and can be reduced to 0.3 yuan/kWh by 2035. It can be reduced to 0.2 yuan/kWh per year. Second, the power consumption and operation and maintenance costs of the electrolytic water hydrogen production system are reduced. With technological advancement and scale-up, the cost of electrolyzer equipment will drop by 60%-80% before 2030. According to relevant research, China's hydrogen energy demand will exceed 35 million tons by 2030 and will be close to 60 million tons by 2050. Renewable energy electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen will gradually become the mainstay of China's hydrogen energy supply, and its proportion in the hydrogen energy supply structure will reach 45% and 70% in 2040 and 2050 respectively.
The market size will exceed 700 billion in 2050: As the supply and demand of hydrogen energy increases, the installed capacity of the hydrogen production system will increase significantly. Economies of scale will effectively reduce unit investment and equipment depreciation as a proportion of the cost. Therefore, it can be achieved by reducing the cost of equipment. The number of hours of full load utilization can be reduced to reduce the average cost of electricity, thereby reducing the cost of hydrogen production and promoting the economics of hydrogen fuel cell applications. By 2050, the installed capacity of China's electrolyzer system will reach 500GW, and the market size is expected to exceed 700 billion.
Overall, the "Mid- and Long-term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" reflects the country's great emphasis on the hydrogen energy industry and clarifies the diverse application ecology of hydrogen energy in transportation, energy storage, power generation, industry and other fields. , which will help accelerate the industrialization of hydrogen energy. It is expected that the hydrogen energy field will receive more policy support in the future, and it is recommended to focus on hydrogen fuel vehicles, electrolysis of water and hydrogen production and other subdivisions.
6 Data·Valuation - The overall A-share valuation is declining
The valuation level of all A-shares is declining this week. As of the close on March 25, all A-share PE (TTM) fell 0.2X to 14.5X, which is at the 35.6% quantile of historical valuation levels.The GEM declined this week, with PE (TTM) falling 0.7X to 40.8X, which is at the 24.0% quantile of historical valuation levels. The CSI 300 Index PE (TTM), which represents large-cap stocks, fell 0.2X to 11.5X this week and is at the 40.7% percentile of historical valuation levels. The CSI 500 Index PE (TTM), which represents small and mid-cap stocks, fell 0.2 to 15.6X this week, which is at the 0.5% percentile of historical valuation levels.
In terms of industry valuation, sector valuations have gone up and down this week. Among them, the valuation of the food and beverage sector has increased more, with an increase of more than 3.0X, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector has fallen more significantly, with a decrease of more than 1.5X. Among them, the food and beverage sector rose by 3.2X to 64.5X, at the 78.7% historical quintile; the valuation of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector fell by 1.9X to 76.9X, at the 83.4% historical quintile. As of the close of trading on March 25, the top five industries in terms of primary industry valuations were social services, comprehensive services, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and electric power equipment.
This article comes from the financial world
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