Regarding the plague phenomenon that has been prevalent in China for thousands of years, ancient people and traditional medicine have summarized it as a rule, using proverbs: &39; The plague started in the heavy snow, occurred in the winter solstice, was born in the small cold, grew up in the severe cold, It is prosperous in the beginning of spring, weaker than rain, declining in the startling sting, finished in the vernal equinox, and extinguished in Qingming.
When I saw this proverb, the first intuitive reaction was to feel that the time period described by it roughly coincides with the time for myself and my family to add and remove clothes during the winter and spring seasons, and It also reminds me of another sentence, called &39;chun cover autumn freeze&39;, which is the folk belief that from the perspective of health care, although winter is the coldest season of the year, it does not need to be immediately from the autumn to the winter. Add clothes, but try to wear as little as possible until the temperature is really low, and then add clothes; and when winter comes and spring comes, don’t reduce clothes immediately, but keep wearing more clothes until you feel When it's really hot, take off your heavy winter clothes. As far as I am concerned, from last year to this year, when the winter solar terms began, that is, around November 8th, I did wear singles because I did not feel very cold; and in early March, before and after the start of spring, For a month, but still wearing a down jacket.
Since seeing the proverb describing the plague, there is a connection to the feeling of seasonal temperature changes, then we need to conduct a research and analysis on seasonal temperature changes to see what the proverb describes What is the connection?
I published an article on today’s headline before me, "Which day is the coldest and hottest time of the year?" What is the temperature? "Understand after reading" has combined modern astronomy and geography, information system science, heat flow loops of the surface thermal cycle system, mathematical calculus, etc., to prove: in the northern hemisphere of China, most areas of China, the daily average temperature rises and falls within a year The trend is about one month (30 days) behind the changing trend of sunshine duration, as shown in the following figure:
Schematic diagram of the relationship between surface environmental temperature and daytime duration in China's middle and low latitudes (sunshine duration)
, the vertical axis is the picture above The sunshine duration is used as a reference to draw the trend line of the surface environmental temperature change.
Because we want to study temperature changes, we need to quantify the coordinates on the temperature line.
How to do it?
Because the time range and geographic span of our research is relatively wide, that is to say, we are not studying the instant and specific changes in a certain place at a specific day or at a certain moment, but from various places, To study a statistical law that can be summarized throughout the year, then as far as statistical methods are concerned, it does not correspond to the specific situation of a certain place one-to-one, but is &39;generally &39;, &39; Not much & 39;, & 39; On average, such an empirical concept of estimation and trend judgment.
Therefore, in order to calibrate, we will also find calibration points from experience and statistics.
[Note: There is a significant difference between the daily average temperature and the daily minimum and maximum temperature. For example, in a winter in Beijing, the day when the daily average temperature is minus 5 degrees, its daily minimum temperature and daily maximum temperature It may be minus 18 degrees and minus 10 degrees]
Based on the evaluation of the daily average temperature data of multiple cities across the country, we set it like this: the highest daily average temperature in the year is 30 degrees Celsius, and the daily average temperature The minimum is -5 degrees Celsius (minus). This temperature range should be used to approximate the annual average temperature changes in most parts of the country. Under this temperature setting, we then zoom in on the abscissa to see clearly how the ambient air temperature changes during the period described in the above proverb:
First of all, the coordinate calibration value transformation of the above picture is carried out, from the sunlight The duration is the coordinate value reference, and the conversion is based on the daily average temperature of the surface environment, as follows:
4da4a#04a7din China Schematic diagram of the relationship between surface environmental temperature and daytime length in low latitude areas (temperature)
In the figure, the blue dotted line indicates the change trend of daytime length (non-calibrated), and the red dotted line indicates the change trend of surface environmental temperature (calibration) , And the solid green line is the fluctuation of the simulated daily average temperature superimposed on the trend line.
Then we will enlarge the part of the above picture, which is the time period corresponding to the proverb, as follows:
The start time of the picture is earlier than the start time described in the proverb "39; heavy snow" A solar term, namely &39;Xiaoxue&39; (November 22)
The end time of the picture is later than the end time described in the proverb & 39; Ching Ming & 39; a solar term, which is &39; Gu Yu&39; (April 19th)
0a3a0da8a7#
Schematic diagram of the relationship between surface ambient temperature and daytime length in low- and middle-latitude regions (winter and spring solar terms and temperature)
In the figure, we can read:
Snow solar terms, the daily average temperature is 1 degree above zero, which is close Zero degrees; and will continue to cool;
winter solstice, the average daily temperature is minus 2 degrees, and will continue to cool;
small cold solar terms, the daily average temperature is minus 4 degrees, which is still not the coldest;
大寒Solar terms, the average daily temperature is minus 5 degrees, which is the coldest time of the year; after that, the temperature began to rise;
Lichun solar terms, the daily average temperature returned to minus 4 degrees, still relatively cold;
雨水节气, The average daily temperature rises to minus 2 degrees, and the temperature rises further;
Jingzhe solar term, the average daily temperature rises above zero (about 1 degree), ice and snow begin to thaw, everything recovers, and bugs crawl out of the soil, so It is called Jingzhe;
Spring equinox solar term, the daily average temperature rises further, exceeding 4 degrees;
Qingming solar term, the daily average temperature rises to more than 8 degrees, it can already be called warming.
Then, it corresponds to the proverb: &39; The plague begins in heavy snow, occurs in the winter solstice, born in the small cold, grows in the severe cold, prosperous in the beginning of spring, weaker than rain, decayed by surprise, finished on the vernal equinox, and extinguished in Qingming&39; , Not when the plague was at its peak, it was the coldest solar term, but the &39;Lichun&39; solar term after the cold solar term; and if you look at the temperature corresponding to the heavy snow solar term by 1 degree above zero, it stands to reason that the temperature returns after Lichun 1 degree is the season of shock; then there are still two solar terms after the shock. Wait for the temperature to rise further before the plague is completely over. The time difference between this is about one month. Why?
I can’t help but think of &39;Chun cover autumn and freeze&39;, the meaning of these 4-character proverbs, in addition to saying that changes in temperature will lag the seasonal changes in the duration of sunshine, it also reminds us that human immunity is also Fluctuates with temperature changes. When the temperature drops, the immunity will decrease. Similarly, during the temperature rise in spring, the immunity will gradually recover as the temperature rises. Therefore, the old ancestors were able to sum up and include the above series of changes in the 4 words "Spring Cover Autumn Freeze". It is really too wise. This process, in terms of &39;yin and yang ebb and flow&39; in the I Ching, is indeed very reasonable. In fact, it corresponds to: the human body’s immunity depends on the orderly energy of life. When the temperature is low, the orderly energy is insufficient. With reduced immunity, the human body is prone to illness.
For the ebb and flow of the plague, it is actually a struggle between two forces: the growth and spread of infectious disease sources such as viruses, and human immunity.
Related research data show that viruses are not afraid of heat but not cold. In history, the plague in the late Ming and Qing dynasties both occurred under extreme cold weather conditions. Our current scientific research has also verified this: scientists have found extremely low levels in the polar regions, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the Siberian tundra. Virus blocked by temperature. Specific to the current new type of coronavirus: it is more sensitive to heat in the current experiment. The new coronavirus can be stored for several years at -60°C, and is moderately stable in a suitable maintenance solution at 4°C. As the temperature rises, the resistance of the virus will decrease, but it must reach a certain temperature and exceed the corresponding time. Inactivated virus: The new coronavirus can generally die in an environment of 56°C for 30 minutes. From the experience of the ancients and modern medical experiments, it can be concluded that as the climate becomes warmer, the activity of the virus will be inhibited.
Next, let’s do a quantitative statistical analysis of the fight between human immunity and the virus. We know that if a virus infects humans, it will begin to replicate in large numbers from the moment it enters the human body. Before its number reaches a sufficient level, the human immune system may not be able to recognize it and fight it. In the meantime, it is actually It can be said that it explodes exponentially in the human body, until the human immune system realizes that it has affected human functions, the immune system responds, and people get sick. At this time, although the immune system can recognize and respond accordingly, it is not yet ready to fight the virus, so the virus will continue to grow and the patient's condition will continue to worsen. But then either the human body itself or the human body undergoes treatment with the assistance of a doctor to improve immunity. After a while, when the disease reaches its most serious degree, the human immunity becomes stronger and antibodies begin to work. The immune system began to fight back against the virus on a large scale, and the virus will gradually decrease until it disappears from the human body. The above process is called: the incubation period, the onset period, the severe disease period, the regression period, and the recovery period. If a picture is used to represent the period of illness, the vertical axis is the severity of the disease, and the horizontal axis is time:
04a7#
04a7 It is considered as a general cycle: the human body may have an incubation period of 5-7 days from exposure to the pathogen to the onset of the disease, and then to the serious illness, which is about half a month, and then begins to subside and recover, and until the disease is cured, it is almost one Months. Of course, this corresponds to the cured situation; for those that cannot be cured, it may be over after 30 days.
Now back to the corresponding graph with temperature, let’s think about it like this:
The period from when the temperature is close to zero and the snow is below zero to the startling period is the time when the virus’s vitality is more active, and this This period happens to be a time when the human body's immunity is very poor. During this period, if people are exposed to pathogens, they are very susceptible to infection. Moreover, it can be approximated as follows: the lower the temperature, the lower the human immunity, and when exposed to pathogens, the greater the probability of infection and the corresponding number of people. We use numbers to make the following calculations:
uses the temperature on the day of the heavy snow as the basic measurement point (&39; the plague begins in the heavy snow&39;), and every day the temperature drops a little, we record it as the infection that was infected after exposure to the pathogen on that day. Like the number of people (counted in proportion);
During the period of heavy snowfall to startling, the daily temperature change is used to approximate the number of newly infected people who are statistically infected due to temperature changes (it is infected, not diagnosed, because No symptoms when first infected), as follows:
0#
The probability of new infections in winter and spring and the trend of temperature changes
Next, we need to do a & 39; cumulative sum & 39; calculation, that is, starting from the day of heavy snow, statistically The number of people infected is the cumulative number of disease severity. We create a vertical series for the abstract number of infected people for each day, which uses the disease severity graph to multiply the number of abstract new infections corresponding to each day (in the system In theory, this process is called &39;convolution&39;), and what is obtained is the value of the severity of the disease corresponding to the number of newly infected people every day after the heavy snowfall; as shown in the following table:
and then the severity of all diseases is greater than our 0 The sequence of numbers is summarized horizontally according to the number of days to get the sum of the severity of the disease of all people who have contracted the disease on that day. We can call it &39;existing daily epidemic status&39;. This process is called seeking&39; in system theory. Convolution and &39;.
Because the figure of &39;existing daily epidemic situation&39;, the value is relatively large, far exceeding the above scalar range with temperature as the coordinate, we will perform a &39;scale compression transformation on it again to make it superimpose In the temperature change trend graph, it becomes: &39;the current situation of the epidemic situation benchmarking trend&39;, and, in order to indicate the actual random fluctuations, and superimposed with a certain random fluctuation, it becomes:&39;the current situation of the epidemic situation benchmarking simulation&39;, We get the following picture:
4f Figure
It can be seen from the figure that the relationship between#
epidemic situation and solar terms is deduced. Considering the cyclical change of disease severity over time (about 30 days) and the & 39; convolutional sum of the new infection probability of the plague with the temperature change trend &39;After that, the old saying&39;The plague begins in the heavy snow, occurs in the winter solstice, born in the small cold, grows in the big cold, prosperous in the beginning of spring, weaker than the rain, decays in the startling sting, ends in the vernal equinox, and dies in the Qingming period The resulting & 39; epidemic situation trend benchmarking icon & 39; curve corresponds almost perfectly. At the beginning of spring, it is indeed the peak of the epidemic, and the Qingming solar term corresponds to the elimination of the epidemic.
All of the above is the scientific derivation and verification of traditional experience from modern science.
Towards the end of this article, it is necessary to further explain the above graphs derived from statistics:
1. Empirical laws based on statistics and comparison with the laws of physics, The latter can be very accurate, and the statistical law can only express a trend change, and the approximate range of numerical changes based on the trend;
2, the above graph of temperature changes with seasons, the temperature is close The average of the whole country; if you want to be specific to a certain place, you will inevitably superimpose the positive or negative deviation on the basis of the original image, and with the difference of the local latitude, the waveform trend will change in the left and right aspects, that is, time. There is a slight deviation;
3. Since it is a statistical law, it is impossible for this graph to correspond to all epidemics one by one, but the time rhythm of epidemic spread will be somewhat similar to some specific epidemics; it is also unusable It is necessary to compare and estimate the specific number of people sick in a specific epidemic, because when a specific situation occurs, there are too many man-made or natural uncertain factors, and their impact may eventually make a single epidemic curve different from The statistical summary graph has a far deviation;
4. As an empirical statistical law, it may fit a part of all epidemics, (This ratio may be 20-30%, or it may be 30-40%. The specific fitable proportion has not been searched for all historical data for further analysis). This fitable proportion is statistically Call it "correlation." Moreover, because of the complex changes in the origin and spread of various plagues in the past and in the future, we believe that this map will inevitably not correspond to the true evolutionary trends of all plagues. In other words, we cannot judge this year's "new crown pneumonia" epidemic based on this graph, and it will definitely be eliminated after Qingming!
5. There are many types of pathogens that cause epidemics. Coronavirus is only one of them. It will be more vigorous when the temperature is close to zero. We cannot rule out that some other pathogens may be suitable for survival at higher temperatures. For example, yeasts are adapted to grow and multiply at a temperature of 20 degrees to 30 degrees. Although yeasts are not pathogens for the human body, we do not rule out their existence. Similar pathogens that prefer higher temperatures exist. For epidemics caused by pathogens adapting to different temperature ranges, the law deduced in this article is definitely not suitable. This is why the previous article said that in all epidemics, there may be only 20%-30% of relevant cases that can fit the law of this article. Due to the low correlation with all epidemics, we say that the law revealed in this article is an "incomplete law."
6. Human immunity, in fact, will increase with the increase of temperature in an appropriate temperature area, it cannot continue to increase; when the external environment temperature accepted by the human body is higher than a certain value, On the contrary, the human body will suffer from metabolic disorders, the energy balance will be broken, and the human immunity will drop sharply as the environmental temperature rises further. Therefore, the laws disclosed in this article are only approximate deductions of certain plagues that occur at the turn of winter and spring. Other plagues that can also occur and spread under high temperature conditions in summer are not suitable to be explained by the graphical laws in this article. .
7. The spread of plague in human society, in addition to the pathogen’s sensitivity to temperature and the adaptation of human immunity to temperature, are the basic conditions for the struggle. More importantly, the human body’s exposure to pathogens, and the latter is completely Irregular and unpredictable, this caused the outbreak and spread of the plague in the population. In more cases, it has nothing to do with the derivation of the above data and graphics, but only in the process of transmission, which will be affected by the season to a certain extent. The superimposed effects of temperature changes.
8. But the last thing I want to explain is: the derivation of the data and graphics in this article has given us a glimpse of the correlation between the plague epidemic and seasonal changes to a certain extent, which makes us respond to and prevent the epidemic There is still a basis for the occurrence of. At least, as an individual, I will in the future, at the turn of winter and spring, let myself, my family and friends, pay more attention to cold protection, health care, and in the high incidence of infectious diseases (such as flu) that may occur-Xiaohan to shock During this period of time, let your family members wear masks to prevent problems before they happen and avoid the risks of unpredictable plagues (infectious diseases) in winter and spring.
According to the incomplete pattern shown in the figure, I further believe that, in addition to traumatic damage, various diseases that people suffer from may be related to the lack of orderly life energy. Then, let life restore orderly energy Effective way, when we cannot change the big environment such as the seasons, we can change the small environment of our lives. In addition to food and medicine, we can also apply the directional transmission and irradiation of vibration energy of appropriate frequency. Think like this, when the temperature is low Infrared roasting may be an effective method of physiotherapy. This is also the principle that a certain "spectrum analyzer" was popular in the past few years. In recent years, I have prepared a & 39; Little Sun & 39; infrared heater at home. Whenever I feel a little discomfort in my body, I will turn it on and take a photo. Not to mention it’s really useful. It's not easy to get sick, and many of the first-emerging minor illnesses are overtaken in the bud.
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