During the National Day holiday, Jiuxun visited many supermarkets and wine stores in Beijing and found that compared with the small-scale low-alcohol wines and wines that are suitable for household and self-drinking scenarios, liquor sales are relatively slow, merchants stock up

Jiuxun Ziyu/Wen

This year's "National Day" shows the "Ice and Fire" offline and online. During the National Day holiday, Jiuxun visited many supermarkets and wine stores in Beijing and found that compared with the small-scale low-alcohol wines and wines that are suitable for household and self-drinking scenarios, liquor sales are relatively slow, merchants stock up on goods, and consumers are not purchasing power.

But online, wine companies create new consumption scenarios while lowering prices to attract consumers to buy, setting off a wave of National Day climax. The National Day holiday has just ended, and the wine companies in that room have begun to warm up for Double Eleven without stopping, and have shifted from a desolate offline to an online channel.

Image source: Photo Network

1

offline online "seesaw"

Jiexun visited several convenience bee supermarkets in Beijing and found that the wine and drink shelves were basically occupied by wine, foreign wine and low-alcohol wine. Most of these products are imported and have exquisite packaging, while white wine products are pitifully few, mainly with bottled wine.

According to the Golden Week consumption data released by Convenience Bee, in alcohol consumption, the sales of high-value wines that are consistent with leisure and vacation needs have increased in concentration. In addition, according to Hema data, white wine increased by 38% compared with the same period last year, meter wine increased by 30% compared with the same period last year, sake and soju both increased by more than 40%. Among foreign wines, gin wine and rum increased by 125% and 89% respectively.

In the above two new retail supermarkets’ alcohol consumption data, the figure of liquor did not appear. But when it comes to traditional supermarkets, the sales of liquor are still dull.

In a Wumart Duodian supermarket in Tiantongyuan, Beijing, multiple brands such as Fenjiu , Gujing Gongjiu have set up separate activity areas, and the promotion activities are more intense than Mid-Autumn Festival. The product shopping guide said that wine gift boxes can be used to give gifts on National Day. They not only reduce prices, but also give gifts such as wine glasses, but consumers do not have a strong desire to buy.

Secretary-General of Beijing Wine Distribution Industry Association Cheng Wansong believes that the difficulty of selling liquor during the two festivals is the influence of the continuation of the restricted gathering, which is particularly obvious this year. But these are temporary situations. Due to poor sales, wine companies will reduce marketing actions, which is a normal strategic adjustment.

The lack of offline consumption scenarios has made wine companies focus on online channels. Compared with the plain offline market, e-commerce platforms are much more lively.

JD Home and JD hour shopping data shows that during the National Day holiday, the demand for visiting and giving gifts has also increased. The sales of liquor gift boxes, egg gift boxes, etc. on JD.com's home delivery and JD.com hourly shopping increased by more than 10 times year-on-year.

htmlOn October 1, Kweichow Moutai JD self-operated store issued an announcement that during the National Day holiday, a total of 3,000 bottles of Moutai liquor and series of products are expected to be sold in the first three days; October 4 is the Moutai JD Super Brand Day, and 15,000 bottles of Moutai liquor and series of products are expected to be sold on the same day. Unlike previous holiday activities, this year, Mao fans have the opportunity to draw lots of lottery to buy "Xiaomao" IP peripheral products. In addition to third-party e-commerce channels, on September 29, the "i Moutai " APP released a limited-time National Day limited edition electronic tasting card (three cups) on each card with different city views that Mao Xiaoling has visited this summer.

It is reported that Wuliangye , Luzhou Laojiao and other brands Tmall flagship store . As of October 8, several popular single products sold more than 2,000 yuan per month, and some products sold more than 1,000 yuan per month; not only that, many liquor Tmall stores have started preheating the Double Eleven event, including price reduction, purchase in advance and enjoying privileges.

Image source: Convenience Bee Official Website

2

Product two-level differentiation

In the overall slowdown in sales, small situations between liquors are different.High-end liquors obviously need to be more calm, while low-end liquors are under heavier pressure.

From the perspective of price, the regular operation of wine companies in previous years to increase prices before the Double Festival did not appear this year. Although Feitian Moutai is still the first choice for people to buy high-end wine, during the National Day, the price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai fell slightly, with the price of loose bottle Feitian Moutai at 2850-2900 yuan/bottle, and the original box Moutai at 3030-3050 yuan/bottle.

is in many Moutai stores, and the store has sufficient stock, but the dealer said that he did not stock up this year. After all, the uncertainty of demand during holidays is getting greater and greater, so we must ensure the stability of cash flow . The overall sales are pretty good, but it's still slightly lower than in previous years.

A staff member of Wumart Duodian Supermarket said that during the National Day holiday, the average customer price of consumers purchasing products is relatively low. The sales of high-end products have decreased compared with last year, with the main consumption range being between 300 and 500 yuan. It is even more difficult to sell products under 300 yuan, mainly some bottled wine products, which consumers buy for their own drinks.

The terminal's low willingness to stock up and the price increase of wine companies will no longer be increased before the holiday. You can also see the clues from the interim reports of wine companies. Data shows that in the first half of this year, 15 companies generated net cash flow from operating activities among the 20 A-share listed liquor companies were positive and 5 were negative; 6 companies had operating cash flows increased compared with the same period last year, and 14 companies saw a year-on-year decrease. Among them, Kweichow Moutai's operating cash flow decreased by 100.05% year-on-year, Wuliangye's operating cash flow decreased by 78.33%, and Yanghe Co., Ltd.'s operating cash flow decreased by 312.77% year-on-year.

In addition, after sorting out the interim reports of wine companies, the performance differentiation of high and low-end liquors is also serious. In the first half of this year, five liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe Shares, , Shanxi Fenjiu , and Luzhou Laojiao, achieved a total revenue of 144.745 billion yuan, accounting for 78.87% of the revenue of the liquor sector, and achieved a total net profit of 62.331 billion yuan, accounting for 88.87% of the total profit of the liquor sector. Shunxin Agricultural , Jinzhongzi Wine and other companies experienced a decline in net profit, while the growth rate of wine companies in some regions and wine companies that are taking the low-end route has slowed down.

CICC issued a research report saying that in recent years, the space for sub-high-end prices has continued to move upward and widen. It is now entering a new stage of market deepening operations. With the rise of the middle class, the public banquet has gradually upgraded to 300 yuan+. Unlike in 2012, the current sub-high-end consumption scenarios are more balanced, the risk resistance is stronger, and the sub-high-end growth foundation is more solid. The expansion of sub-high-end liquor is still fully supported. It is expected that the scale will reach 180 billion yuan in 2025.

Image source: Photo Network

3

No scene creation scene

When the offline consumption scenario narrows, wine companies put the growth space online and use diversification and youth to create new consumption scenarios.

HUChuang Securities pointed out in its research report that liquor consumption is still under pressure overall, long-distance and cross-provincial flows have decreased. Although local banquet and catering demand has rebounded, the degree of repair has not increased significantly from the Mid-Autumn Festival month-on-month, and it has slightly decreased year-on-year, and consumption has been slightly downgraded. Overall sales are not as flat as expected. Some wine companies have fallen slightly month-on-month, inventory in distribution channels has been relatively benign, distribution and terminal inventory pressure has increased, and the willingness to purchase goods is not high. Some long-tail brands have dumped goods.

Cheng Wansong pointed out that although due to the impact of the epidemic, liquor sales are not effective offline, many liquor companies have made breakthroughs and innovations. In addition to actively following the innovation of e-commerce, they have also accelerated the expansion of cloud drinking consumption scenarios. In the post-epidemic era, these expanded consumption scenarios such as cloud drinking should not disappear, but they need to be carefully cultivated by professionals.

It is understood that in May this year, Gujing Gongjiu Year Raw Powder held the fifth Peach Blossom Spring Festival, and the entire process was live broadcast; in March, Luzhou Laojiao· Guojiao 1573 Collection Ceremony launched the "Cloud Viewing Ceremony", creating the introduction of official live broadcasts, Phoenix.com second live broadcast room review live broadcast, industry media live broadcast and other all-media multi-port live broadcast formats; in February 2020, Langjiu launched the "Cloud Drinking Party", and the event attracted 500,000 people in just 24 hours.

During the National Day holiday, wine companies also showed their presence through various means. Luzhou Laojiao launched the "Open the cover and scan the code, and get another bottle" marketing campaign; Moutai ice cream was launched in Chongqing, Xiamen before National Day; Shuijingfang was named the World Table Tennis Championships final...

Industry insiders believe that the drinking scenario of liquor is migrating from offline to online, and in addition to drinking, liquor also plays an important role in gift giving, daily communication, collection, investment, etc., and its social attributes are more prominent. Wine companies should adhere to long-termism and explore new consumption scenarios so that consumers can complete the entire process of contact, conversion and transactions online in an integrated manner.

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