Today we talk about wine and beverages.
Two types of commodities, wine and beverages, are price-sensitive commodities. Price-sensitive commodities can be understood as non-necessities to a certain extent. This kind of commodities has two notable features: one is that the price increases and the sales volume will increase. Immediately decrease; secondly, when revenue decreases, sales will decrease immediately.
Liquor mainly reflects the consumption ability of middle-aged and old people, beer mainly reflects the consumption ability of young people, and beverages mainly reflects the consumption ability of teenagers and young people. All three products It can reflect the consumption power of the people. Therefore, we can see the leopard from the production and consumption data of alcohol and beverages, and we can see the consumption capacity of Chinese people.
Let’s take a look at the data. First, let’s look at the white wine production. In 2015, the production of liquor was 13.13 million tons. In 2016, it rose to 13.58 million tons and reached the peak at the same time. After that, the output began to decline drastically. In 2017, it was 11.98 million tons, in 2018 it was 8.71 million tons, which fell below 10 million tons, directly dropped to 7.86 million tons in 2019, and fell to 7.41 million tons in 2020. The output in 2020 is substantially less than the peak in 2016. 44%, nearly cut in half. At the same time, the annual export volume of Chinese liquor is roughly more than 10,000 tons, which is almost negligible compared with the domestic market.
Look at the beer data again,According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, 2013 was the peak of China's beer production at 49.83 million tons. By 2020, it has dropped to 34 million tons, a drop of 32%.
Finally, look at the beverage data. In 2016, the beverage industry (excluding dairy products) peaked at 183.45 million tons. This data includes various milk tea shops and coffee shops. It fell to 18.051 million tons in 2017, 15,600 tons in 2018, recovered to 177.64 million tons in 2019, and dropped to 163.47 million tons in 2020, which is 10% lower than the 2016 peak.
Through the above data, we can clearly see that the consumer market for alcohol and beverages is shrinking. Among them, liquor has fallen the most, almost cut in half; followed by beer, which has dropped by 32%, and beverages. , A drop of 10%. Big data on alcohol and beverage consumption means that consumption power is weakened. What are the factors behind this?
Over the past period of time, Chinese liquor has been sought after, and Moutai shares have been chased wildly, surpassing the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at its peak, and once became the most valuable listed company in China. However, the liquor sector plummeted in early June. The No. 8 liquor index fell by 8.55, and Moutai also fell by 3.52% on the same day. On June 22, there was another plunge, the liquor index fell by 3.62%, Shanxi Fenjiu fell by 8.43%, Willing to wine 6.68%, Gujinggong fell 5.2%, Jiugui wine 5.4%, Hainan Yedao fell 5.13% and so on.Part of the reason for the plunge was the capital operation of cutting leek, but the core of it was the consumption data above, which means that the market big data supported the logic of this plunge.
Liquor industry is an ancient and traditional industry in China. It seems that Chinese people are inseparable from liquor for dinner and human relations, but the times are changing. Will traditional practices be impacted by a new generation of young people? , This is also a question worthy of in-depth consideration. At its peak, there were tens of thousands of liquor companies in China, and there were 1,500 wineries above designated size, distributed in various provinces, and each region had its own distinctive wine culture and distinctive wine brands. But the cold data is telling us that a large number of wineries are closing down. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 1,176 wineries above designated size in the country in 2019, a decrease of 269 from 2018. During the six years from 2012 to 2018, thousands of small and medium-sized wineries disappeared from Chinese liquor factories. At the same time, the volume of liquor market is also very serious. The sales of liquor are mainly concentrated in 18 listed company wineries. Their revenue exceeds 40% of the entire industry. The top 7 are Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, Fenjiu, Gujinggong and Niulanshan, their total revenue accounted for 86% of listed companies, so even if the performance of the first liquor companies is growing, the entire liquor industry is shrinking, and the liquor industry as a whole is , Has been polarized in a state of disarray.
What are the three core elements that support the Chinese consumer market? Population, consumption upgrade and market development.
According to the seventh census data,Low fertility and serious aging are already inevitable trends. Under this background, the demographic dividend is about to be exhausted. Therefore, the way of boosting consumption through demographic dividends in the past has to be changed. The demographic myth has been broken. The times are true. changed.
But in terms of the alcohol and beverage market, whether young people are willing to inherit the wine culture is a problem. The current overall trend is to dislike wine culture and persuade wine culture, and more young people advocate individuality. Coupled with the gradual popularization of the current healthy life concept, many people start to quit drinking and drinking for health. Therefore, just relying on the old middle-aged and some young people who inherit the wine culture, this consumption power is no longer what it used to be. Therefore, we can clearly see that the alcohol market will shrink as a whole. Compared with liquor, the acceptance of beer by young people will be higher, and the alcohol market will also enter the era of "quality competition". How to adapt to the tastes of young people , Improving the products of liquor and beer is the top priority of the industry in the future. This is why Jiang Xiaobai , pre-mixed , and craft beer have been in the limelight in recent years. After all, any industry still has to follow the consumer market.
And consumption upgrade is another questionable topic. The main buyer of consumption upgrade is the middle class, and the middle class has four big mountains on its head: mortgage, education, medical care, and pension. The middle class exists objectively, but how much the middle class is willing to contribute to the upgrading of consumption is also a question. Good products, good quality, there are costs behind them.
We often say that we need to open up the market, but we need to think deeply about a series of phenomena in recent years. Basically, foreign capital has shown a tendency to withdraw. Carrefour was sold to Suning ,Auchan Commercial sells RT-Mart, McDonald’s sells its Chinese business to CITIC Group and Temasek, Metro, Lotte Mart, Tesco Commercial sells its Chinese business, and now is closed every year. Some stores, Amazon, Takashimaya, Marks and Spencer directly closed their retail business in China, and Messi's withdrew from the Chinese market. This is only the retail industry, and many foreign companies in other industries are gradually withdrawing from the Chinese market.
Through the analysis of the above three points, we can think that the economy has entered an inflection point in 2018, and the economy has changed from an incremental market to a stock market, and the stock market means a low growth rate. At present, the most important thing is to solve the problem of financial leverage, the problem of fertility, the problem of employment, and the problem of fair income redistribution, not the problem of GDP growth rate.
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