1. Is coal snatched away by the world?
According to Wall Street News , coal prices have continued to rebound recently; taking thermal coal as an example, since mid-August, the price of thermal coal has been rising, and the quotation on October 20 has reached 1,267.5 yuan/ton.
coking coal, Shanxi Gujiao fat coal car plate price was 2,400 yuan/ton on October 14, up 100 yuan/ton from last week (4.3%), and Australia's Fengjing coking coal land price ,304 USD/ton, up 7 USD/ton from last week (2.4%).
According to industry media, more than just steel goods, coal transportation output in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has fluctuated recently. Among them, "Starting October, sea-transported coking coal in the international market will be priced but not market, and no one will be out of stock."
article stated that the tension in international coal has often reached a point where coal is difficult to find. The negotiation price of the first phase of the Japan-Australia-New Zealand power coal cooperation was reached at US$395, and the highest in the first half of this year reached US$430. In the first half of the year, the FOB price of international coking coal reached US$600, which was added up, and the simulated and estimated purchase price reached more than 5,000 yuan.
Domestic, as many places cooled down in October, demand for coal storage gradually increased in winter, heating in most areas in the north is about to start, and downstream heating and power plants have increased their procurement scale for winter storage. Guosheng Securities also pointed out that many countries have announced that the possibility of "La Nina" phenomenon this year is increasing, and the low temperature in winter may intensify. It is expected that power plants will increase the reserve of coal for heating this winter and next spring.
In addition, Guosheng Securities stated that the Yangtze River has insufficient hydropower replenishment, the thermal power pressure has increased, and the demand for replenishment of warehouses in some areas may continue. CITIC Securities also pointed out that the current restriction of transportation of thermal coal transit places is also one of the factors that drive up the price of thermal coal.
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2. What do you think of coal that is out of stock?
We see that the recent coal shortage has attracted the attention of the entire market. How should we analyze and judge the current development issues of the coal market? How to analyze and judge the harmfulness of coal’s long-term development?
First of all, the current coal shortage is actually a very normal phenomenon. Affected by the European energy crisis, the entire market is actually in a relatively shortage of coal, especially in the case of relatively insufficient personnel. Thermal power generation with coal as the main fuel is undoubtedly extremely competitive in the market. Therefore, the current market's large-scale procurement of coal is to reserve to prevent the emergencies brought by the severe cold this winter. This practice is in line with the objective laws of the development of the entire market and is also an inevitable result of the market development. Therefore, we can say that the current coal shortage is normal and an inevitable result of the market.
Secondly, under the influence of world economic globalization, the world economy has actually shown a high correlation characteristic. More and more listed companies have actually found that under this high economic correlation, the price of international commodity and the price of domestic commodities are interconnected. Therefore, when international oil prices and personnel prices rise rapidly, the rapid rise in coal prices directly triggers the price increase of domestic coal prices. Therefore, we see that the entire market is actually facing this kind of relative shortage of coal, which is also a common problem brought about by the current entire coal market.
3. From the perspective of long-term market development, although the coal in the entire market is in a relatively tight supply situation, this supply shortage is only a short-term situation, not a long-term situation. The supply shortage of the entire coal market is a special node for the development of an market economy under the conditions of . For us, although the supply of coal is relatively tight, the safety of personnel can be guaranteed. China's overall energy is in a relatively safe range compared to other countries, so we don't need to worry that there may be insufficient demand for coal this winter. However, for most power supply companies, they do need to prepare early and plan to use various means of personnel supply to make up for the pressure brought by the individual personnel gap. Only in this way can the better development of the company be promoted.
