The recent global financial situation has focused on the UK, Europe and Japan.
Due to Fed radical hikes , coupled with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe has become the most easily harvested region.
including Tras' previous large-scale tax cut plan became the fuse, causing a sharp drop in the British bond market, causing some financial risks to the UK pension, forming a financial crisis to a certain extent, and attracting a lot of attention.
However, some problems are quietly happening in Southeast Asia, which is currently not very concerned.
For example, Vietnam's real estate has experienced a storm recently, and there have been three kills in stocks, bonds and foreign exchanges.
This article will conduct a detailed analysis on this.
On October 8, Vietnamese real estate tycoon Zhang Meilan was suddenly arrested. The police said that the company she controlled was suspected of illegal issuing bonds and raising trillions of Vietnamese Dong .
, Vietnam's fifth largest bank, Saigon Bank, was also run by depositors because of rumors that it was related to Zhang Meilan's group.
also caused Vietnam's exchange rate and the stock market to experience a significant decline.
Then someone may ask, aren’t many people saying that Vietnam’s economy is good? Why is it still thunderous?
Vietnam announced the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter on September 29, reaching an astonishing 13.67%. At that time, many people were still yelling at the sky, why did it storm in a blink of an eye?
In fact, Vietnam's ultra-high growth in the third quarter was built on the ultra-low base last year.
The epidemic in Vietnam was very serious in the third quarter of last year, and a large number of enterprises stopped production. Therefore, Vietnam's GDP plummeted in the third quarter of last year, with a negative growth rate of 6.17%.
So, when I analyzed Vietnam's economy at the beginning of the year, I gave you a vaccination. The ultra-low base in the third quarter of last year will inevitably cause Vietnam's GDP growth rate to surge in the third quarter of this year. At that time, it is estimated that many people will become more and more depreciated by using the blow.
But in fact, Vietnam's GDP growth rate in the third quarter was not as expected.
The market expects Vietnam's GDP growth rate in the third quarter to be 14.35%, while the actual growth is 13.67%.
In addition, although Vietnam expects annual GDP growth to reach 8% this year, this is still based on the low base in the third quarter of last year.
If the average growth rate in three years is included, the average annual growth rate of Vietnam's GDP in the past three years is roughly around 4.5%. The growth rate of
can only be considered average, and it cannot be said to be very good.
In 2021, Vietnam's GDP ranked 39th in the world with a scale of US$368 billion, which is similar to our Guangxi's GDP.
In terms of GDP of this volume, once the country enters a stage of rapid development, it is normal for the country to have a GDP growth rate of more than 8%. The smaller the GDP volume, the faster the growth rate.
. After the GDP volume increases to a certain level, it is difficult to maintain high-speed growth.
So, Vietnam's economy is completely incomparable to us.
I am not saying that I can’t see Vietnam’s economic development well. Whether Vietnam’s economic development is good has nothing to do with me.
Mainly many people just use their hype to become more and more derogatory, and I just expose and refute this phenomenon.
Vietnam's economy naturally has its advantages, especially after the United States imposed various trade sanctions on us, Vietnam has become a middleman between us and the United States.
Just as after Europe sanctions on Russian energy, India has transformed into an energy middleman between Russia and Europe.
Vietnam imports a large number of semi-finished manufacturing products from us, and then performs OEM assembly and processing, and then exports them to the United States, which also brings considerable benefits to Vietnam.
But even so, Vietnam's trade surplus is very low, and there have been two trade deficits this year .
Vietnam should have been in the stage of developing manufacturing around trade and thus developing its economy.
But in 2020, under the unlimited printing of money by the Federal Reserve, a large amount of hot money poured into the Vietnam real estate market for hype.
This has caused Vietnam to appear, and the trade and manufacturing industry is still in a relatively preliminary stage, and it is already seriously hyping real estate, which is also laying a mine for Vietnam's economy.
After the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike this year, the mine laid by the Vietnamese economy will eventually be detonated.
In my article analyzing Vietnam on May 31 this year, I also warned of the possibility of a storm in Vietnam's real estate.
. Zhang Meilan, who broke down this time, is the fourth generation of Chinese in Vietnam. The Wansheng Group she founded is Vietnam's largest private real estate company. She also announced a high-profile cooperation with Li Ka-shing .
In fact, before Zhang Meilan, many real estate giants had been arrested in Vietnam, and many real estate giants had stormed one after another.
The most famous of them are the collapse of Xinhuangming and FLC Group.
At the end of 2021, Xinhuangming Group used 24 trillion Vietnamese dong to capture a piece of land in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Let me explain here that 1 US dollar can be exchanged for 24,000 Vietnamese dong, so this 24 trillion is actually about 1 billion US dollars, which is quite a lot.
In order to raise funds for the auction, Xinhuangming issued bonds nine times, raising 10 trillion Vietnamese dong.
Xinhuangming also packaged these bonds into derivative products and sold them to investors as investment and financial products. Are you familiar with the routine of
?
Results After the auction was successful, Xinhuangming announced his withdrawal from the transaction, and the investors who purchased the financial product faced serious losses.
By April 5 this year, the chairman of Xinhuangming Group was arrested.
The chairman of Vietnam FLC Group was arrested in March this year for suspected manipulation of the securities market.
As of the third quarter of 2021, the average house price of Ho Chi Minh City was about US$2,683 per square meter, which is approximately RMB 18,000 per square meter.
The average monthly income in Vietnam is 1,200 yuan, and even the average salary in Ho Chi Minh City is only 2,400 yuan.
By the first half of this year, Vietnam's housing price speculation entered the final crazy stage, of which the average house price in Ho Chi Minh City had exceeded 35,000 yuan in the first half of the year.
Some external real estate developers have also begun to pour into the Vietnam real estate market to participate in the speculation.
But this has also reached the final stage of passing the flowers by beating the drum.
After the Fed aggressively raised interest rates, Vietnam also began to tighten its currency.
In September this year, Vietnam also raised interest rates by 100 basis points in one go, raising the interest rate from 4% to 5%
In addition to raising interest rates, Vietnam has also begun to significantly tighten real estate credit.
seems to be about to cool down the real estate market. However, in the cycle of aggressive interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve, Vietnam does this, which is quite similar to Japan in the 1990s, and is very likely to burst the real estate bubble .
Recently, Vietnam has shown some relatively bad signs.
, which includes the Vietnamese Dong exchange rate has recently accelerated depreciation based on the long-term continuous depreciation.
includes Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves , which has also seen a relatively rare significant decline in the past decade.
and Vietnamese stock market also saw a 32% drop this year.
Overall, there are many problems facing Vietnam's economy at present.
Every round of aggressive interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve, the easiest way to trigger problems is actually emerging market countries like Vietnam.
, however, because of the uncontrolled printing of money by Europe, the United States and Japan in the past decade, Europe, the United States and Japan have also accumulated a large number of problems.
So, in this round of Fed's radical interest rate hike cycle, Europe is more likely to be harvested due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, so now the attention of investors around the world is mainly focused on Europe and Japan.
But there are actually many problems in Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam.
Vietnam is a typical country that relies entirely on foreign trade exports.
Vietnam's total import and export volume in 2021 was US$668.5 billion, while GDP was US$368 billion.
In other words, Vietnam's foreign trade scale is even much larger than its own economic scale.
Countries like Vietnam that are highly dependent on foreign trade can easily achieve rapid growth in the global economic prosperity cycle.
But in the global recession cycle, it is also more susceptible to impact.
is good for Vietnam now, and we have made a lot of money through trade OEM processing when we and the United States intermediaries.
Otherwise, Vietnam's economy would probably have had big problems.
Of course, every family has its own difficult sutras. I will analyze some of the economic problems of Vietnam here, and I hope to have the effect of "stones from other mountains can be polished with jade".
By discovering some problems in others and taking them as a warning, we can avoid similar problems from yourself and use people as a mirror.
does not mean that we have no problem ourselves.
, including my video, has also analyzed some of the economic and financial problems faced by many other countries.
more is just trying to explain that not only we are facing great economic pressure now, but in fact, all countries in the world are also facing relatively large economic pressure. This is a global economic recession cycle, and no country can survive alone.
In fact, the problems faced by countries around the world are basically the same.
We must learn dialectical thinking and learn from one example and apply it to others.
Moreover, although our economy also has some problems and pressures, there are some highlights.
For example, in the past three months, we have accounted for 62.8% of the world's trade surplus.
Countries on the list in the chart, such as Australia and Norway, mainly export resources and energy, while only China relies on manufacturing to bring about a huge trade surplus.
Other traditional manufacturing surplus countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Germany have fallen behind.
The stable trade surplus brought by our current huge manufacturing industry is an important guarantee for our economy.
Why can we maintain a huge and stable manufacturing industry? In this situation where the global epidemic is still raging, we can supply huge commodities to the world steadily.
is something that everyone must think about carefully.
The current world supply chain is in chaos, and only we still maintain a relatively stable and orderly supply chain system, which is our very important advantage.
is just in the context of the global economic recession, and it will inevitably bring greater pressure to our foreign trade.
Recently, consumer demand in Europe and the United States has dropped a lot. In September, the volume of offshore container transportation to the United States in Asia decreased by 13% year-on-year, which has been falling for two consecutive months, and the decline is still expanding.
We also need to face and be vigilant about this kind of pressure.
Therefore, everything has its pros and cons, good and bad, we must learn to think dialectically, rather than fall into polarized extreme thinking.
Don’t belittle yourself, and don’t be arrogant.
Forge ahead.
I am Star Talk Dabai, everyone is welcome to like and support.
