I saw a very interesting story on the weekend. Let me tell you a retelling:
"Stockdale is the highest-level American general who was captured in Vietnam War . He was released after being detained for 8 years. The author interviewed him and asked: Why can you survive this difficult 8 years?
Stockdale said: Because I There is a belief that I believe that I will be able to come out and see my wife and children again. This belief has always supported me and made me survive.
The author asked again: Who is the fastest death among your companions?
He replied: are those who are too optimistic .
Author said: Isn't this very contradictory? Why do those optimistic people die very quickly?
Stockdale said: They always think that Christmas can be released, right? But Christmas is not released; just think that Easter can be released, but Easter is not released; just think that Thanksgiving, and then Christmas is again, As a result, one disappointed one after another, they gradually lost confidence and died in despair.
Simply put, strategically despise the enemy and tactically attach importance to the enemy . The future is bright, and the road is tortuous."
Today's title of Fengwoo is to discuss with everyone where the current market has gone?
Follow my friends all know that I am optimistic about the market next year, and the logic based on it is also very simple, that is, Feder will start the rate cut cycle around Q3-Q4 next year. It is expected that Q2-Q3 will be a recession, and U.S. economy will recover strongly in 2024, and our strong economic recovery will begin around Q2-Q3. A little earlier that is exactly the corresponding bull market should start next Q1.
However, the above is speculation, that is, the bottom-level optimism and confidence of the captured general in the stock market above, but if the long-term optimism and confidence are placed in the short term, then is likely to be killed by the market first, and then the market will truly start to make a big spoiler .
The real pace of the economy has just turned, but after asking around on the weekend, it is basically panic, especially those with elderly people and children at home, most of whom are anxious, and the response plan is to "try to two points and one line as much as possible". The traffic in Guangzhou has not increased but decreased , which has begun to reflect the characteristics of the first wave of impact I have always emphasized: the economy cannot recover.
The first wave of impact has not yet arrived. At that time, there will be various problems such as medical resources. Judging from foreign experience, this wave of impact will be gradually calmed down in 2-3 months, and the panic will disappear significantly. At that time, we will usher in a real strong recovery in traffic.
So here are two reminders:
1: Try not to join in the first peak and consider the waves during the trough period.
2: Keep long-term optimistic about the stock market and grasp the two dimensions of current rhythm, and do not confuse long-term and short-term factors.
rhythm reminder has been completed. Now look at the direction of the weekend fermentation. The main thing is "What to stir-fry after letting go?"
There is no doubt that determines the outbreak of demand for vaccine , regular medicine + antigen detection box . There are already news that there is already a shortage of stocks. There is still a chance to continue digging in this direction. If everyone prepares medicine and reagents, we, a country with a large population, are obviously much higher than those in foreign countries.
logic flaw is mainly because the cough stop syrup is released again and it is effective for the new coronavirus. In fact, every cold, fever and cough relieving medicine may be claimed to be effective for COVID-19 , which leads to the effective supply of traditional Chinese medicine in in the short term to expand without limit. This is called " self-limiting disease ". It is not that you are cured by taking medicine, but that it is the credit of the immune system.
Another line is Food, tourism (outbound travel), consumption, catering, duty-free, and the exhibition that few people mention, as well as the logical progressive real estate post-cycle (the blockade is significantly inversely proportional to real estate sales data, and the post-cycle of real estate superimposed on housing and consumption recovery).
Judging from the stock market performance after the liberalization abroad, also reflects changes in consumption (pharmaceuticals)-growth-cycle:
The changes in the cycle are probably not related to liberalization, mainly because of the impact of oil supply from February to June this year.
From the current pace, the scenario consumption in consumption, the antigen in medicine is relatively small in the previous period, and the rise is better. The post-cycle of real estate cannot escape the influence of real estate itself. The opportunity for the sector is about next year, and the exhibition is indeed in a unique market, and it is still a sector worth paying attention to after installment.
In addition, the data confirmation suddenly fermented on Friday, but the intensity was mainly in the morning and afternoon. I didn’t see much in this sector. I feel that there is a market trend that is “it’s easy for you to miss the opportunity like this”. Let’s observe again.
Weekend news:
1. Due to insufficient power supply, Swiss may restrict the use of electric car . It continues to be bad for lithium batteries, which are also in the process of a major cycle economic downturn.
2, People's Daily Zhongyin: Do a good job in vaccination for key groups. Short-term vaccine demand is showing an outbreak.
3. Beijing: From December 3, purchase of four types of drugs will no longer be registered with real names. Short-term medical demand is showing an explosion.
4, Gree Real Estate : intends to purchase 100% equity of duty-free group , and stocks are suspended from trading . The sentiment is good for shell resources real estate companies.
update today, it is not easy to write. Remember to like and follow the fierce girl [Cuckold] See
at the opening.
