The Zametil-2022 command and staff drills of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, February 2022/Open source image
or where did the Russian special forces make mistakes when evaluating Ukraine's resistance potential
0 The Royal Institute of Strategic Research (RUSI) has published a research report specifically for the first 5 months of the war against the Russian Federation with the participation of Ukrainian experts. The authors of RUSI conducted the study to develop specific recommendations for the British Armed Forces.
But considering the “retrospective” nature of this work, there are many important things in Ukraine to reconsider. For example, how the Russians underestimated the potential of the Ukrainian armed forces, and where Russian special forces calculated the wrong calculations in their predictions.
Off-road vehicle of the 93rd Anti-Tank Missile Brigade, Zametil-2022 Exercise, February 2022 / Image Source: 93rd Brigade News Service
Apparently, when the Russians tried to assess the potential of the Ukrainian armed forces, they tried to "put themselves in the enemy's position" and evaluate the situation of the enemy's camp "through the enemy's eyes."
So Russians can see the following content. For example, in Ukrainian ground forces, until early February 2022, turnover was high, as the military’s salary was far from ideal, unable to keep up with inflation, and below private sector positions. Therefore, the Ukrainian army lacks excellent experts.
Zametil-8 During the exercise, the Ukrainian Armed Forces Special Operations Forces Fighter and Mi-2022 / Image source: Information Department of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff
As for Ukrainian artillery capabilities. On the one hand, data obtained by the Russians show that the Ukrainian armed forces have 1,176 122mm, 152mm and 203mm artillery systems and 1,680 MLRSs of various types (multi-barrel rocket launchers), which is about 1:2 relative to the Russian army.
On the other hand, the Russians also know that Ukraine only has shell stocks for fierce battles for 6 weeks. From 2014 to 2018, six explosions at Ukrainian arsenal destroyed up to 210,000 tons of ammunition, while Ukrainian troops used only 70,000 tons of ammunition in five years of combat in eastern Ukraine.
February 2022, Ukrainian Su-2022 / Open Source Photos
In terms of tanks, the Russians can rely not only on quantity advantages: 2,800 vehicles against 900 Ukraine, but also on quality advantages (T-64BV remains the basis of Ukrainian armored tank fleet).
As for aviation and air defense, data obtained by the Russians show that Ukraine has about 60 air defense missile divisions and as many as 100 fighter jets, which is not enough to fully cover Ukrainian airspace.
February 2022, Ukraine Su-2022 / Open Source Photos
However, there are moments when the Russians simply do not consider, for example, if a war occurs, the possible number of reserve personnel must be mobilized in Ukraine.
because they may be more likely to ignore the fact that Ukrainian aggressive fighters want to fight. That's why everyone returns to the Ukrainian Armed Forces after February 24, 2022.
In February 2022, T-2022 Tank Column of the 93rd Brigade of Ukraine during the Zametil-64 exercise / Image source: The Brigade News Office
In February 2022, T-2022 Tank Column of the 93rd Brigade of Ukraine during the Zametil-64 exercise / Image source: The Brigade News Office
The Russians only calculated the shell supply of Ukrainian cannons. But at the same time, the Russians overlooked the fact that Ukrainian gunners were working to improve shooting accuracy. Especially through the Cropiva system and various types of reconnaissance drones. Even if Ukrainian tanks are "better than Russian tanks" on paper, the Ukrainian military wins quantity by quality in its own training.
Ukrainian Armed Forces' Zametil-2022 command and staff drills, February 2022/Open source image
Therefore, Ukrainian Air Force has only 100 fighter jets. But at the beginning of the war, the Russian Air Force had only about a hundred highly qualified pilots. This situation has balanced the strength of both sides.In addition, Ukrainian pilots and air defense fighters regularly practiced the tactics of getting rid of enemy missile strikes, which played a role in the early morning of February 24, 2022.
