According to reports, on the night when the Russian army evacuated Snake Island , Russian Su-30 fighter jets bombed Snake Island. Subsequently, a number of Russian warships were dispatched from the direction of Crimea and entered the Black Sea . The
satellite discovered that at least two Russian missile frigates, fully loaded with more than a dozen cruise missiles, have entered the northwest of the Black Sea and are posing a threat to the Ukrainian army. At the same time, three more large Russian landing ships set sail from Crimea and entered the northwest region of the Black Sea. A U.S. military RQ-4B Global Hawk drone is flying over the Black Sea to monitor the actions of the Russian fleet.
In fact, the Ukrainian army basically relies on the Americans for reconnaissance and monitoring on the Black Sea. Because most countries actually know basically nothing about what happens on the coastline and beyond 100 kilometers.
Because of the existence of American satellites, reconnaissance aircraft , unmanned aerial vehicles and early warning aircraft , 24-hour monitoring of relevant waters in the Black Sea is carried out. Only the Ukrainian army will know what happened in the Black Sea. At what time, what Russian ship appeared at what location. Otherwise, relying on Ukraine's little maritime reconnaissance capabilities, it will be blind to the coastline beyond 100 kilometers.
At the same time, it must be able to integrate maritime reconnaissance and surveillance, maritime target identification, maritime and land strike capabilities to form an integrated maritime reconnaissance and strike platform.
Without the Americans, it would have been impossible for Ukraine to sink the cruiser Moskva. The Black Sea spans 704 kilometers from north to south and 1,200 kilometers from east to west. In such a vast area, Ukrainians have no idea when and where the Russian warships are. Moreover, warships are moving. If you want to attack warships, you must know the precise location of warships in real time.
Although three landing ships appeared this time, it is now unlikely that the Russian Navy will launch a landing operation against Odessa . The frigates that the Black Sea Fleet can now dispatch are three 11356M frigates. Two frigates, plus three landing ships, may not necessarily be able to defeat two sets of Harpoon anti-ship missile systems and multiple sets of Neptune anti-ship missile systems.
The remaining two Krivak 2-class frigates in the Black Sea Fleet have been in service for nearly 50 years and are no longer able to participate in the war. Therefore, many people say that the Russian army will capture Odessa region and turn Ukraine into a landlocked country. In fact, there is a high probability that the Russian army will not be able to do this. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is not strong enough to support such a large-scale landing battle.
After the Russo-Ukrainian War, the losses of the Russian Black Sea Fleet were still relatively large. One cruiser Moskva, a 1,670-ton new armed transport ship, and a large landing ship were sunk. There were also several landing craft and several Falcon class speedboats, and two large landing ships were injured.
Unless Russia really buys back 6-8 054A-class 4,000-ton frigates and 4-6 052D Aegis-class destroyers. Otherwise, the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet will not be able to launch the Odessa landing battle at all, and can only launch cruise missiles from the periphery to attack deep targets in Ukraine.
Because Snake Island has proven that the Black Sea Fleet cannot suppress the Ukrainian army trucks howitzers on the coastline. Even in the waters near Snake Island, there is no ability to engage in bombardment with Ukrainian army truck howitzers. It is completely impossible to carry out landing operations, and tasks such as air defense, anti-missile, and ground fire suppression cannot be completed.
Just three large landing ships barely managed to send a battalion of Marines up. It was actually useless against a large target like Odessa. Unless, the Russian army can land 1-2 Marine Divisions at once. The current Russian army is an elite army suitable for fighting medium-sized wars. It does not yet have the ability to conduct main attacks everywhere on a front of more than 1,000 kilometers.
At the same time, the Russian aviation force can also monitor the Ukrainian coastline and attack flexible shore-based anti-ship missile launchers at any time. The landing battle is the most complex battle in the world, and the current Russian Black Sea Fleet does not yet have such strength.
Russia can only win but not lose when it attacks Ukraine. It cannot afford to lose. Ground firepower warfare in the Donbass area is the most suitable tactic for Russia. For the Russian Navy, launching cruise missiles from the periphery and remotely attacking factories, warehouses, and NATO aid material bases in the coastal areas of Ukraine is the most appropriate tactic. If you head for the Ukrainian coastline, you will be hit by Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
