After the Russian army captured Lisichansk, on July 3, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu reported to Russian President Putin that the "Luhansk People's Republic" had been completely liberated. In other words, the entire territory of Luhansk has fallen under Russian control.
For Russia, this is indeed a major phased victory in the war in Donbass. Therefore, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end has once again become the focus of attention of all parties.
According to Tass news agency html reported on the 33rd, Luhansk militia officer Andrei Marochko said that controlling the entire Luhansk does not guarantee its security. It is safe to push the "enemy" 300 kilometers away from the border.
According to the officer's statement, it seems that only by confining the Ukrainian army to the right bank of the Dnieper River can its safety be guaranteed. In other words, even if the Russian army controls the entire Donbass , it does not mean that the war will end.
At the same time, according to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on the 3rd, Admiral Vladimir Komoedov, the former commander of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet, mocked that the Ukrainian navy has become a “river army”. Under the best circumstances, You can only move along the Dnieper River. This can't help but remind people of the U.S. Department of Defense's plan to provide inland river patrol boats to Ukraine .
Does Russia and the United States both expect the Dnieper River to be their boundary? If this is the goal, the war between Russia and Ukraine will spread to the banks of the Dnieper River.
In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine seems to be escalating. On July 2, Belarusian President Lukashenko said that just three days ago, the Ukrainian army tried to attack Belarusian military facilities from Ukraine, but all missiles from Ukraine were intercepted. Lukashenko issued a warning that if the Ukrainian army invades Belarus, Belarus will respond immediately.
Russia and Belarus are a grasshopper on a rope. If Lukashenko gets involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, this war will probably get bigger and bigger, making it even more difficult to end.
However, the above news does not represent the official attitude of Russia.
The Lugansk militia officer's statement is more like a kind of big talk; the remarks of Russia's former Black Sea Fleet commander are like "saving respect" by belittling the Ukrainian army to the Russian Navy; Lukashenko The warning was to remind Ukraine not to act rashly. In fact, Lukashenko's actions were quite restrained and he did not intend to escalate the situation to avoid getting into trouble. The Ukrainian army's attack on Belarus seems to be revenge for the previous "attack by Belarus".
Judging from Russian official statements, Russia still has a tendency to cease fire as soon as possible.
First of all, the Kremlin accused the West of not allowing a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Zelensky made it clear at the G7 summit that he hoped for a ceasefire before this winter. However, Zelensky did not get the pulse of the United States and the West. The United States only expressed understanding of Ukraine's pain and faced Ukraine's interests and needs, but it did not intend to serve Ukraine's interests.
Sweden's Minister of Defense even stated that this war will last for a long time. The United States also reiterated its support for Ukraine's continued fighting and provided new funding. Obviously, Ukraine has no right to choose a ceasefire. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said that the West currently hopes that the war will continue and will not allow Ukraine to cease the war. This statement reflects Russia’s anger.
Secondly, Russia has expressed its willingness to end the war through negotiations.
Peskov said that the West under the leadership of the United States does not even allow Ukraine to think or talk about peace issues, but sooner or later the West will wake up and resume negotiations on the Ukrainian issue. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Peskov emphasized that the Kiev authorities need to understand Russia’s conditions. With the current advancement of the Russian army, Russia does not need negotiations as a smokescreen . Russia is so keen on negotiations, and it is more like looking forward to reaching a ceasefire agreement as soon as possible in order to withdraw from the war.
Finally, Russia needs a ceasefire, and the results obtained by Russia also allow it to seek a ceasefire.
For Russia, the best outcome is to capture Donbass. The ultimate goal of Putin's recent special operations is to capture Donbass. However, now that Russia has taken control of Luhansk, if Russia plans to cease fire now, this result can be used as a basis for Russia to declare victory. The Russian army had to rest and recuperate after a long period of fighting, and the Donbas militia suffered heavy losses. Even though Lugansk was captured, it was questionable whether it could maintain the results.
Judging from the withdrawal of the Russian army from Snake Island , the weapons supported by NATO are already in effect. As NATO weapons and equipment are gradually put in place, it is still unclear whether the Russian army can take down Donbas. With the support of NATO, Under this situation, it is not impossible for the Ukrainian army to launch a counterattack on a certain scale. Russia's ceasefire as soon as possible will also help it end with dignity.
