Zhang Juen/Text
Almost at the same time, two things spread at home and abroad, inside and outside the industry, and inside and outside the circle. One was that three Chinese airlines ordered 292 A320neo passenger aircraft, and the other was that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Borisov hinted that he might abandon the CR929 project. The former matter has been settled, but the latter matter remains to be seen.
My opinion is that the former thing is understandable and the pros outweigh the cons. If the latter thing comes true, the advantages will outweigh the disadvantages. It will even be a good thing for both parties to relieve each other and allow them to re-plan their future.
Let’s talk about the first thing first.
On July 1, three airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, China Southern Airlines, purchased 100, 96, and 96 A320NEO passenger aircraft from the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus, respectively, for a total of 292 A320NEO aircraft, with a total price of US$37.257 billion, approximately. A total of RMB 240 billion. In the current international situation of and , when the first C919 is about to be delivered, such news is undoubtedly explosive.
Reuters reported
Bloomberg reported
A320NEO is an improved version of Airbus A320 passenger aircraft . The NEO in the name is the abbreviation of New Engine Option, which means new engine option. Due to the use of the same LEAP engine developed by CFM International as the C919, the fuel efficiency of and has been significantly improved.
A320NEO and Boeing 737MAX, which was also launched in a hurry, are direct competitors to my country's mainline passenger aircraft C919. Seven years ago, on May 10, 2015, after the successful maiden flight of C919, I enthusiastically wrote my 167th post to express my joy and longing, as well as my thoughts and suggestions on the severe situation. . I wrote:
C919 was finalized in 2009 and when it was released to the world, its outstanding competitive advantage was the use of supercritical wings, carefully designed aerodynamic layout , and the pioneering use of advanced engines, which resulted in better fuel efficiency than similar products. models (A320 and B737) reduce the effect by 13%. This was confirmed again when Chief Engineer Wu Guanghui was interviewed by CCTV after the successful first flight on May 5. However, Mr. Wu carefully added the qualifier, saying that this advantage is compared with their basic type.
This is because after the C919 freezing program, Airbus and Boeing successively launched the A320NEO and B737MAX projects at the end of 2010 and September 2011, with the goal of taking the lead of the C919 and focusing on the two successful and mature projects of the A320 and B737. The aircraft model has been improved in an attempt to offset the advantages of the C919.
Both projects have adopted two major technical measures: First, they have switched to using LEAP engines; C919 is the first user of this type of engine, and the supporting product is called LEAP-1C. The selection of Airbus and Boeing is LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B. The second is to improve the aerodynamic layout and focus on the wing tips; Airbus added "sharklets" to the wing tips of the current layout, while Boeing used " winglets ". As a result of the implementation of the two measures, after deducting the negative effects such as weight gain due to additional installations, the net benefits of fuel efficiency increased by 15% and 13.5% respectively. The net income of
is exactly equal to the advantages of C919. What makes it difficult for us to compare is that what they launched is an improved model, saying that 95% of the entire aircraft has not changed, and only needs to undergo a limited airworthiness review. For users, the operation is basically unchanged and maintenance is convenient. As soon as the news of the new aircraft was released, people flocked to it, with orders reaching thousands. A320neo deliveries began last year, and Boeing is about to deliver them.
LEAP-1C, 1A and 1B
A320NEO shark fins
B737MAX and its winglets
Since then, Airbus and Boeing have made rapid progress and started delivery earlier than expected, and soon reached the peak of delivery in 2018. That year, the total annual deliveries of both companies exceeded 800 aircraft. Airbus reached 800 aircraft that year, including 386 A320NEOs delivered; Boeing reached 806 aircraft, including 580 737 aircraft, nearly half of which were MAX.
Unexpectedly, two tragic air crashes involving Boeing 737MAX occurred in October of that year and March of the following year. Later, the global COVID-19 epidemic raged, which greatly impacted the global civil aircraft transportation industry and new aircraft procurement. With the confirmation of the cause of the air crash, serious problems in both technology and management of Boeing Company have been revealed. Although the 737MAX has been returning to flight around the world since last year and the sales of new aircraft have restarted, Boeing's image has been damaged and its popularity among the public has been damaged. It is an indisputable fact that Airbus has lost ground in aircraft technology.
This purchase by the three Chinese airlines is mainly based on the Chinese civil aviation industry’s understanding of the development trend in the post-epidemic era, as well as the comparison and judgment of the comprehensive performance of similar products. It is a legitimate and normal behavior. After my country's civil aviation transportation industry became the world's second largest single market in 2011, it has continued to expand in scale and will rank first in the world in a few years.
The delivery period of the A320NEO aircraft ordered this time is from 2023 to 2027, with an annual average of about 60 aircraft. During this period, the domestically produced C919 is in the process of obtaining international airworthiness certification and gradually increasing production capacity. This order is a necessary step for the recovering civil aviation passenger industry in the post-epidemic era and the renewal of a large number of narrow-body passenger aircraft. necessary supplement.
Technically, the judgment of the three airlines is wise. After the Boeing crash, my colleagues and I also wrote an article calling for the fact that the basic 737 model is too old and the room for improvement has been exhausted. In addition to low-level errors such as MCAS system , due to the failure to use telex control The system still has inherent deficiencies that are difficult to make up for in terms of control, maneuverability, and safety. This aircraft should be avoided if possible.
This incident is bound to have a strong impact on Boeing, which is far more serious than after the Ethiopian Airlines crash in March 2019. China was the first in the world to ground the 737MAX; in the field of narrow-body passenger aircraft, Chinese airlines are turning to Europe, which may Will completely break up with 737MAX. But Boeing cannot blame others. It can only revitalize its culture and open up new paths. It may need to launch replacement models as soon as possible. The U.S. political circles are definitely not happy either. They believe that China has once again treated Europe and the United States differently. But this is indeed not China’s fault. It would be a good thing if American politicians could actively respond to complaints from Boeing and other business circles about deteriorating relations between the two countries and the protracted trade war that has ruined their business prospects, so as to reflect and make changes.
This order will definitely have an impact on the future production and delivery of C919, but the impact will be relatively limited. As I said before, after the C919 completes the first delivery this year, it will continue to strive for international airworthiness certificates (including American FAA and European EASA), while gradually increasing production capacity. According to the original plan, it is difficult to achieve an annual production capacity of 100 aircraft by 2025. It is unrealistic to rely solely on the C919 to meet the needs of the domestic market.
It is reported that Airbus will rapidly increase its production capacity in the face of huge orders. The current monthly production capacity of narrow-body passenger aircraft is 50 aircraft. It is expected that the mid-term production capacity target of the A320 series passenger aircraft in 2023 will be 65 aircraft/month, and will increase to 65 aircraft/month in 2025. 75 aircraft/month, by which time the annual production capacity of the A320 series will reach 900 aircraft. The current monthly production capacity of Boeing 737MAX passenger aircraft is 31 aircraft.
In the face of this incident, China’s civil aircraft manufacturing industry must strengthen its confidence, continue to fight hard, maintain its technical status, improve its security level, and reflect its comprehensive advantages.Under the guidance of the two major cycles at home and abroad and the construction of a unified domestic market, we will achieve conditional independent guarantees and do everything possible to accelerate the increase in production capacity to occupy more market shares. This is a tough but urgent battle. This is the last chance for China's civil aircraft manufacturing industry. It can only succeed, not fail!
Let’s talk about the second thing.
According to the Russian TASS news agency, on June 29, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said at the "Future Engineers" forum that "Russia and China are cooperating in the CR929 wide-body passenger aircraft project and are not moving in a direction that is suitable for us. direction of development. As China has become an industrial giant, the Chinese are less and less interested in our services. Although Russia has its own excellent design bureau, China has made a comparison on the CR929 project. More demand from Russia. Therefore, our participation is getting less and less. I do not want to predict the future of this project and do not want to say whether we will leave this project. So far, the CR929 project is still under development. It was signed with China in 2014 when Russian President Putin visited China. The project is undertaken by a joint venture between the United Aircraft Corporation of Russia and COMAC. The two parties agreed that the new aircraft will be developed in Russia and final assembled in China and Russia. In fact, the cooperation between the two parties started much earlier, and it should be 11 years ago.
Russia will establish a special engineering center to conduct technology research and development and electronic system production. Production of the fuselage and final assembly of the aircraft will take place in China. The composite wings, lift devices and avionics equipment are produced in Russia, while the fuselage and tail are produced in China. All components will be assembled at COMAC's new Shanghai aircraft manufacturing plant. The engines will be supplied by Rolls-Royce or GE.
I will not repeat here the many differences that exist between the two sides on what kind of wide-body passenger aircraft to develop and what kind of technical route to take. Just from the current international political and economic situation caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we can see that the path Russia wants to take is inconsistent with our established goals, and there is even a big gap. For example, Russia advocates the complete use of Russian domestic equipment and technology. Including engines, China may not agree.
large passenger aircraft is a highly internationalized and commercialized product. Achieving business success is real success. Over the past decades in the development of civil aircraft in our country, we have experienced repeated defeats and defeats. One of the lessons we have accumulated is that commercial success must be given top priority.
According to Russia’s proposition, the prospects for commercial success are worrying. What's more, Russia's interests are not equal to our national interests. We have no reason to tie everything to Russia's tanks. Perhaps, at this time, Chinese airlines collectively purchased Airbus aircraft to express an attitude. These two things cannot but be said to have some internal connection.
Based on the experience of me and many of my predecessors, from the Soviet Union to Russia, they have never been qualified international collaborators. In their interactions with them, they often show undisguised egoism, a serious lack of contract spirit, deep-rooted big-country chauvinism, and contempt and disdain for us, which all affect the advancement of cooperation and its success. Looking back at history and looking at the present, there are few successful cases of fruitful scientific, technological and industrial cooperation between China and Russia, and we should have a clear understanding of this.
In view of the faltering progress of CR929 and its uncertain future, we should be happy to see it if Russia takes the initiative to propose that it is unsustainable. Since they are not worried about the negative impact on the political relationship between the two countries by raising this issue at this time, we do not need to worry about it.
Today’s Chinese aviation is no longer what it was 20 or 30 years ago, and it is also very different from more than ten years ago. While the CR929 project is slowly advancing, a group of our prime leaders and technical backbones have I have gone from around 50 to the edge of 60.
I think that if the CR929 project ends gracefully, it will help us independently plan and think about the development strategy of the type spectrum after C919. Maybe we can make a new overall consideration of 290 seats and 390 seats. If we had embarked on a new independent path one day earlier, this elite team working on the civil aircraft technology front would have been able to work hard to complete another career move after the C919 and create a long-range broadband industry of our own. A new era for passenger aircraft.
The strong and twisted melon is not sweet. This Chinese proverb is also very appropriate for CR929.
It’s time to get ready and independently develop our country’s wide-body passenger aircraft!
